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Downscaling and Disaggregating NAO-conflict Nexus in Pre-industrial Europe

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Chinese Geographical Science 2016年第5期26卷 609-622页

作者： Harry Fung LEE ZHANG David Dian PEI Qing FEI Jie Department of Geography and the International centre of China development studies University of Hong Kong School of Environment and Natural Resources Renmin University of China centre for Historical Geographical studies Fudan University

Recently, the desiccation effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) is found to be positively correlated with violent conflict in pre-industrial Europe, with agricultural shrinkage and its subsequent economic shocks to be their causal link. However, it remains unexplored whether the correlation persists if the study period is extended backward in time, a different definition of violent conflict is applied, or the relationship is examined at lower geographic levels. In this study, we based on 835 internal disturbance incidents in Europe during 1049–1800 to conduct long-temporal and multi-scalar examination on the NAO-conflict nexus. ′Time-series′ and ′panel data′ disaggregation approaches, together with Granger Causality, Multiple Regression, and Survival Analyses were applied to verify the nexus quantitatively. Results show that the positive NAO-conflict correlation was significant at the continent and physiographic zone levels. During the positive NAO phases, the annual probability of internal disturbance outbreak increased by 70.0% in the southern Europe and the Mediterranean, a zone most affected by the NAO-induced desiccation effect. Yet, the NAO-conflict correlation was rather inconsistent when it was downscaled to the sub-regional level. Moreover, the NAO-conflict correlation was inflated under the time-series approach, while the panel data approach demonstrated the region-specific nature of the NAO forcing more clearly. The associated implications in examining climate-conflict nexus are discussed. Our findings may be crucial in examining violent conflict in the northwestern Africa, a highly agricultural region affected by the NAO.

关键词： climate change North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) violent conflict internal disturbance Europe

Farmers’perception of climate change and adaptation strategies in the Dabus watershed,North-West Ethiopia

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Ecological Processes 2018年第1期7卷 65-77页

作者： Paulos Asrat Belay Simane College of development studies Center for Environment and Development StudiesAddis Ababa UniversityAddis AbabaEthiopia

Introduction:This study is aimed at analyzing farmers’perception and adaptation to climate change in the Dabus *** is based on analysis of data collected from 734 randomly selected farm household heads substantiated with Focus Group Discussions and field ***:The study employed descriptive methods to assess farmers’perception of climate change,local indicators of climate change and types of adaptation measures exercised to cope up with the risk of the change in *** study also employed the Heckman sample selection model to analyze the two-step process of adaptation to climate change which initially requires farmers’perception that climate is changing prior to responding to the changes through adaptation ***:Based on the model result educational attainment,the age of the head of the household,the number of crop failures in the past,changes in temperature and precipitation significantly influenced farmers’perception of climate change in wet lowland parts of the study *** dry lowland condition,farming experience,climate information,duration of food shortage,and the number of crop failures experienced determined farmers’perception of climate ***’adaptation decision in both the wet and dry lowland conditions is influenced by household size,the gender of household head,cultivated land size,education,farm experience,non-farm income,income from livestock,climate information,extension advice,farm-home distance and number of ***,the direction of influence and significance level of most of the explanatory variables vary between the two parts of the study ***:In line with the results,any intervention that promotes the use of adaptation measures to climate change may account for location-specific factors that determine farmers'perception of climate change and adaptive responses thereof.

关键词： Climate change Perception Adaptation Heckman sample selection model

A review on current status of municipal solid waste management in India

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2015年第11期27卷 206-217页

作者： Neha Gupta Krishna Kumar Yadav Vinit Kumar Institute of Environment and development studies Bundelkhand University

Municipal solid waste management is a major environmental issue in India. Due to rapid increase in urbanization, industrialization and population, the generation rate of municipal solid waste in Indian cities and towns is also increased. Mismanagement of municipal solid waste can cause adverse environmental impacts, public health risk and other socio-economic problem. This paper presents an overview of current status of solid waste management in India which can help the competent authorities responsible for municipal solid waste management and researchers to prepare more efficient plans.

关键词： Municipal solid waste Characteristic Management India Disposal

Effects of Sr^(2+) substitution on the structural, dielectric, and piezoelectric properties of PZT-PMN ceramics

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International Journal of Minerals,Metallurgy and Materials 2014年第2期21卷 175-180页

作者： Arvind Kumar S.K. Mishra Research and Technology development centre Sharda University

This study described the structural, dielectric, and piezoelectric behavior of Pb1-xSrx[（Zr0.52Ti0.48）0.95（Mn1/3Nb2/3）0.05]O3 ceramics （PSZT-PMN, x=0, 0.025, 0.050, and 0.075）, prepared by a semi-wet route. X-ray diffraction, dielectric, and piezoelectric investigations were carried out to analyze the crystal structure. The relative dielectric constant and dielectric loss were both calculated as the functions of temperature. The room-temperature dielectric constant reaches a maximum for a Sr2＋-modified PZT-PMN ceramic with an x value of 0.050, which corresponds to the morphotropic phase boundary （MPB）. Raman spectroscopy studies also confirm the existence of this MPB for x=0.050. The piezoelectric strain coefficients （d33） value shows a maximum response for this composition. In addition, the phase transition temperature decreases significantly when the Sr2＋concentration increases in the PZT-PMN ceramics.

关键词： ceramic materials strontium substitution structural properties dielectric properties piezoelectricity

Multifunctional landscapes—perspectives for the future

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2003年第2期15卷 187-192页

作者： Jesper Brandt Department of Geography and International development studies Roskilde University

New methods in landscape ecology to study the link between landscape heterogeneity and landscape functionality are needed. Heterogeneity is a basic characteristic of landscape, and landscape function is the capacity to change the structural heterogeneity of a landscape system. In most developed countries the industrialisation of agriculture has in general resulted in a change of agricultural landscapes from a small-grained heterogeneous pattern towards more monotonous and monofunctional landscapes. During the 1990's this trends seems to have changed due to a diversification of rural land use and new trends in urbanisation. Weather these phases of landscape development should be expected in developing countries is a totally open question. Dealing with the study of multifunctionality of landscapes it is proposed to distinguish between ecological functionality of landscape ecosystems, functionality pertaining to land use and social functionality. Further, the relation between function, space and scale is important by the determination of spatial and time segregation as well as spatial and time integration of multifunctionality in landscapes.

关键词： landscape heterogeneity monotonisation multifunctionality spatial segregation time segregation landscape development

Accuracy of genomic selection in biparental populations of flax(Linum usitatissimum L.)

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The Crop Journal 2016年第4期4卷 290-303页

作者： Frank M.You Helen M.Booker Scott D.Duguid Gaofeng Jia Sylvie Cloutier Morden Research and development centre Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Crop development centre Department of Plant Sciences University of Saskatchewan Ottawa Research and development centre Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

Flax is an important economic crop for seed oil and stem fiber. Phenotyping of traits such as seed yield, seed quality, stem fiber yield, and quality characteristics is expensive and time consuming. Genomic selection(GS) refers to a breeding approach aimed at selecting preferred individuals based on genomic estimated breeding values predicted by a statistical model based on the relationship between phenotypes and genome-wide genetic markers. We evaluated the prediction accuracy of GS(rMP) and the efficiency of GS relative to phenotypic selection(RE) for three GS models: ridge regression best linear unbiased prediction(RR-BLUP),Bayesian LASSO(BL), and Bayesian ridge regression(BRR), for seed yield, oil content, iodine value, linoleic, and linolenic acid content with a full and a common set of genome-wide simple sequence repeat markers in each of three biparental populations. The three GS models generated similar rMPand RE, while BRR displayed a higher coefficient of determination(R^2)of the fitted models than did RR-BLUP or BL. The mean rMPand RE varied for traits with different heritabilities and was affected by the genetic variation of the traits in the *** for seed yield generated a mean RE of 1.52 across populations and marker sets, a value significantly superior to that for direct phenotypic selection. Our empirical results provide the first validation of GS in flax and demonstrate that GS could increase genetic gain per unit time for linseed breeding. Further studies for selection of training populations and markers are warranted.

关键词： Genomic selection SSR Flax Linseed Seed yield Fatty acid composition

Institutional arrangement and typology of community forests of Meghalaya, Mizoram and Nagaland of North-East India

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Journal of Forestry Research 2013年第1期24卷 179-186页

作者： B. K. Tiwari H. Tynsong M. M. Lynrah E. Lapasam S. Deb D. Sharma Department of Environmental studies North-Eastern Hill University Regional centre National Afforestation and Eco-Development BoardNorth-Eastern Hill University

Most community forests in hill regions of northeast India have been managed by traditional local institutions for centuries and most of these institutions remain functional even today. Higher forest coverage on private and community lands as compared to government land indicates that traditional institutions effectively manage community forests in the region. The present study was conducted through a survey of literature and field work using participatory research tools viz., PRA exercises, group discussions and questionnaire interviews with key informants in northeast India. We categorized the institutions involved in conservation and management of forests into three major types： traditional, quasi-traditional and modern. Traditional institutions with hierarchal structure were found in all states and are intact and functional in the state of Meghalaya. Quasi-traditional institutions, a blend of traditional and modern institutions were prevalent in Nagaland while modern institutions have almost replaced traditional institutions in Mizoram. We recorded at least eleven types of community forests viz., group of village forest, village forest, restricted forest, sacred forest, clan forest, cemetery forest, regeneration forest, bamboo forest, recreation forest, village reserved forest and medicinal plantation in villages of three states. The tribal people, through long-term trial and error experiments, have developed an elaborate, functional and generally democratic system of conservation and management of forests and associated natural ecosystems. Several forest and natural resource management lessons can be learnt from the institutional structure and decision making system of the evolving and dynamic institutions of tribal communities of the region.

关键词： sustainable natural resources community, institution: tribal

Estimation of genetic parameters and their sampling variances for quantitative traits in the type 2 modified augmented design

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The Crop Journal 2016年第2期4卷 107-118页

作者： Frank M.You Qijian Song Gaofeng Jia Yanzhao Cheng Scott Duguid Helen Booker Sylvie Cloutier Morden Research and development centre Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Soybean Genomics and Improvement Laboratory USDA-ARS Crop development centre University of Saskatchewan Ottawa Research and development centre Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

The type 2 modified augmented design(MAD2) is an efficient unreplicated experimental design used for evaluating large numbers of lines in plant breeding and for assessing genetic variation in a population. Statistical methods and data adjustment for soil heterogeneity have been previously described for this design. In the absence of replicated test genotypes in MAD2, their total variance cannot be partitioned into genetic and error components as required to estimate heritability and genetic correlation of quantitative traits, the two conventional genetic parameters used for breeding selection. We propose a method of estimating the error variance of unreplicated genotypes that uses replicated controls, and then of estimating the genetic parameters. Using the Delta method, we also derived formulas for estimating the sampling variances of the genetic *** simulations indicated that the proposed method for estimating genetic parameters and their sampling variances was feasible and the reliability of the estimates was positively associated with the level of heritability of the trait. A case study of estimating the genetic parameters of three quantitative traits, iodine value, oil content, and linolenic acid content, in a biparental recombinant inbred line population of flax with 243 individuals, was conducted using our statistical models. A joint analysis of data over multiple years and sites was suggested for genetic parameter estimation. A pipeline module using SAS and Perl was developed to facilitate data analysis and appended to the previously developed MAD data analysis pipeline(http://***/bioinformatics_ tools/MADPipeline/***).

关键词： Broad-sense heritability Genetic correlation Sampling variance Modified augmented design

Upper ocean high resolution regional modeling of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2019年第5期38卷 32-50页

作者： Dwivedi Suneet Mishra Alok Kumar Srivastava Atul K Banerjee centre of Atmospheric and Ocean studies and M N Saha centre of Space studies University of Allahabad

In this paper, effort is made to demonstrate the quality of high-resolution regional ocean circulation model in realistically simulating the circulation and variability properties of the northern Indian Ocean(10°S–25°N,45°–100°E) covering the Arabian Sea(AS) and Bay of Bengal(BoB). The model run using the open boundary conditions is carried out at 10 km horizontal resolution and highest vertical resolution of 2 m in the upper *** surface and sub-surface structure of hydrographic variables(temperature and salinity) and currents is compared against the observations during 1998–2014(17 years). In particular, the seasonal variability of the sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, and surface currents over the model domain is studied. The highresolution model's ability in correct estimation of the spatio-temporal mixed layer depth(MLD) variability of the AS and BoB is also shown. The lowest MLD values are observed during spring(March-April-May) and highest during winter(December-January-February) seasons. The maximum MLD in the AS(BoB) during December to February reaches 150 m (67 m). On the other hand, the minimum MLD in these regions during March-April-May becomes as low as 11–12 m. The influence of wind stress, net heat flux and freshwater flux on the seasonal variability of the MLD is discussed. The physical processes controlling the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature are investigated by carrying out mixed layer heat budget analysis. It is found that air-sea fluxes play a dominant role in the seasonal evolution of sea surface temperature of the northern Indian Ocean and the contribution of horizontal advection, vertical entrainment and diffusion processes is small. The upper ocean zonal and meridional volume transport across different sections in the AS and BoB is also computed. The seasonal variability of the transports is studied in the context of monsoonal currents.

关键词： Indian Ocean modeling Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal mixed layer depth transport