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Sub-seasonal Prediction of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset in the NCEP climate Forecast System Version 2

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第11期39卷 1969-1981页

作者： Weiwei WANG Song YANG Tuantuan ZHANG Qingquan LI Wei WEI School of Atmospheric Sciences and Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for climate Change and Natural Disaster studies Sun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhai 519082China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China National climate center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

This study depicts the sub-seasonal prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset(SCSSMO)and investigates the associated oceanic and atmospheric processes,utilizing the hindcasts of the National centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)climate Forecast System version 2(CFSv2).Typically,the SCSSMO is accompanied by an eastward retreat of the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH),development of the cross-equatorial flow,and an increase in the east-west sea surface temperature(SST)gradient.These features are favorable for the onset of westerlies and strengthening of convection and precipitation over the South China Sea(SCS).A more vigorous SCSSMO process shows a higher predictability,and vice versa.The NCEP CFSv2 can successfully predict the onset date and evolution of the monsoon about 4 pentads(20 days)in advance(within 1–2 pentads)for more forceful(less vigorous)SCSSMO processes.On the other hand,the climatological SCSSMO that occurs around the 27th pentad can be accurately predicted in one pentad,and the predicted SCSSMO occurs 1–2 pentads earlier than the observed with a weaker intensity at longer leadtimes.Warm SST biases appear over the western equatorial Pacific preceding the SCSSMO.These biases induce a weaker-thanobserved WNPSH as a Gill-type response,leading to weakened low-level easterlies over the SCS and hence an earlier and less vigorous SCSSMO.In addition,after the SCSSMO,remarkable warm biases over the eastern Indian Ocean and the SCS and cold biases over the WNP induce weaker-than-observed westerlies over the SCS,thus also contributing to the less vigorous SCSSMO.

关键词： South China Sea summer monsoon onset sub-seasonal prediction the NCEP CFSv2

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A New Circulation Index to Describe Variations in Winter Temperature in Southwest China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2015年第2期29卷 228-236页

作者：申乐琳陈隆勋金啟华朱艳峰 National climate center Laboratory for Climate Studies Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences National Meteorological Information center

A new circulation index（ISW） that can realistically describe winter temperature variations over Southwest China is defined based on analysis of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data（version 1） and the observations at585 stations in China. The study period is from January 1961 to February 2011. The relationship between ISW and general circulation patterns in East Asia is also analyzed. Results show that ISW successfully captures the variations in winter temperature over Southwest China. High ISW values correspond to the intensified Mongolian high, the weakened Aleutian low, increases in the strength of the Middle East westerly jet stream over the south of the Tibetan Plateau（TP）, and decreases in the strength of the subtropical westerly jet over the north of the TP. Meanwhile, the East Asian trough deepens and extends southwestward,making it easier for the cold air mass from the north to intrude Southwest China along the trough. These circulation patterns lead to a decrease in winter temperature over Southwest China（and vice versa）. In addition to the East Asian winter monsoon, the two westerly jets that dominate the upper level circulation over East Asia also exert important influences on winter temperature in Southwest China, especially the Middle East westerly jet to the south of the TP.

关键词： winter temperature,Southwest China,westerly jet,Tibetan Plateau（TP）

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Exploring the potential for improving material utilization efficiency to secure lithium supply for China's battery supply chain

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Fundamental Research 2024年第1期4卷 167-177页

作者： Xin Sun Han Hao Yong Geng Zongwei Liu Fuquan Zhao State Key Laboratory of Automotive Safety and Energy Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Belfer center for Science and International Affairs Harvard UniversityCambridgeMA 02138United States Tsinghua-Rio Tinto Joint Research center for Resources Energy and Sustainable Development Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China School of International and Public Affairs Shanghai Jiao Tong UniversityShanghai 200240China

Lithium-ion battery(LIB)is the key technology for climate change mitigation.The sustainability of LIB supply chain has caused widespread concern since the material utilization efficiency of LIB supply chain has not been well investigated.This study aims to fill this research gap by conducting a dynamic material flow analysis of lithium in China from 2015 to 2021.Results indicate that within the temporal boundary,lithium flow and in-use stock grew significantly in China due to the rapid development of the EV market,with lithium flow in domestic production of basic chemicals increasing by 614%to 100 kt,end-use consumption increasing by 160%to 35 kt,and in-use stock increasing by 62%to 195 kt.China has been a net importer of lithium,of which cumulative imports and exports were 343 kt and 169 kt,respectively.In addition,103 kt of lithium was converted to inventories or was lost during the processing from 2015 to 2021.By optimizing inventory and processing,developing substitutes for lithium for non-battery applications,and improving lithium recycling,China's net import dependency of lithium could be reduced from 27%-86%to 0%-16%.Our study demonstrates that it is urgent to improve material utilization efficiency so that the lithium resource supply can be secured.

关键词： Lithium Lithium-ion battery Critical material Supply chain Material flow analysis

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Cloud and Radiation Processes Simulated by a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2007年第4期21卷 397-408页

作者：汪方丁一汇徐影 Laboratory for climate studies of Chinese Meteorological Administration National Climate Center

Using NCC/IAP T63 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model （AOGCM）, two 20-yr integrations were processed, and their ability to simulate cloud and radiation was analysed in detail. The results show that the model can simulate the basic distribution of cloud cover, and however, obvious differences still exist compared with ISCCP satellite data and ERA reanalysis data. The simulated cloud cover is less in general, especially the abnormal low values in some regions of ocean. By improving the cloud cover scheme, simulated cloud cover in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic, summer hemisphere＇s oceans from subtropical to mid-latitude is considerably improved. But in the tropical Indian Ocean and West Pacific the cloud cover difference is still evident, mainly due to the deficiency of high cloud simulation in these regions resulting from deep cumulus convection. In terms of the analysis on radiation and cloud radiative forcing, we find that simulation on long wave radiation is better than short wave radiation. The simulation error of short wave radiation is caused mostly by the simulation difference in short wave radiative forcing, sea ice, and snow cover, and also by not involving aerosol＇s effect. The simulation error of long wave radiation is mainly resulting from deficiency in simulating cloud cover and underlying surface temperature. Corresponding to improvement of cloud cover, the simulated radiation （especially short wave radiation） in eastern oceans, summer hemisphere＇s oceans from subtropical to mid-latitude is remarkably improved. This also brings obvious improvement to net radiation in these regions.

关键词： AOGCM cloud and radiation cloud radiative forcing cloud cover scheme

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An Index of East Asian Winter Monsoon Applied to the Description of China's Mainland Winter Temperature Changes

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2008年第4期22卷 522-529页

作者：朱艳峰 Laboratory for climate studies of China Meteorological Administration National Climate Center

Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data （Version 1.0） and the observation data of China from January 1951 to February 2007, a new index of East Asian winter monsoon circulation （I EAWM） was defined based on the comparison of previous different winter monsoon indices and circulation factors influencing the winter climate over China. Its relationships with winter temperature over China and large-scale circulation were analyzed. Results show that IEAWM can successfully describe the variation of China＇s mainland winter temperature and the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） system. This index reflects the integrated effect of the circulations over high and low latitudes and the thermal difference between the continent and the ocean. While in the previous studies, most monsoon indices only describe the single monsoon member. The IEAWM is a good indicator of the intensity of the EAWM. Positive values of/EAWM correspond to the strong EAWM, the stronger Siberian high and East Asian trough than normal , and the strengthening of the meridional shear of 500-hPa zonal wind between high and low latitudes over East Asia, and therefore, the southward cold advection becomes stronger and leads to the decrease in surface temperature over China; and vice versa. The IEAWM inter decadal change is obviously positive before the mid-1980s, but negative since the mid-1980s, in good agreement with the fact of the winter warming in China after 1985.

关键词： index of East Asian winter monsoon China＇s mainland winter temperature changes

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MJO ensemble prediction in BCC-CSM1.1(m)using different initialization schemes

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2016年第1期9卷 60-65页

作者： Ren Hong-Li Wu Jie Zhao Chong-Bo Cheng Yan-Jie Liu Xiang-Wen Laboratory for climate studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological Administration

热带大气季节内振荡(MJO)预报是国际研究热点,我国尚处于起步阶段。近些年国际上MJO预报水平得到大幅提升,主要得益于包含海气耦合过程的气候模式的使用,这其中模式预报初始化和集合扰动生成方法至关重要。本文发展了适用于国家气候中... 详细信息

热带大气季节内振荡(MJO)预报是国际研究热点,我国尚处于起步阶段。近些年国际上MJO预报水平得到大幅提升,主要得益于包含海气耦合过程的气候模式的使用,这其中模式预报初始化和集合扰动生成方法至关重要。本文发展了适用于国家气候中心第二代气候预测业务模式BCC-CSM1.1(m)的MJO初始化方案,并在此基础上提出了基于不同初始化方案形成扰动的集合预报新方法,可以将MJO有技巧预报时效延长到约20天,为次季节-季节预报提供重要依据。

关键词：集合预报 MJO 初始化气候系统模式预测系统集合平均温带气候季节内变化

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Causes and Predictability of the 2021 Spring Southwestern China Severe Drought

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第10期39卷 1766-1776页

作者： Yunyun LIU Zeng-Zhen HU Renguang WU Xing YUAN CMA climate studies Key Laboratory National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education&Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China climate Prediction center NCEP/NOAACollege ParkMaryland 20740USA School of Earth Sciences Zhejiang UniversityHangzhou 310058China School of Hydrology and Water Resources Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

In the spring of 2021,southwestern China(SWC)experienced extreme drought,accompanied by the highest seasonal-mean temperature record since 1961.This drought event occurred in the decaying phase of a La Niña event with negative geopotential height anomalies over the Philippine Sea,which is distinct from the historical perspective.Historically,spring drought over SWC is often linked to El Niño and strong western North Pacific subtropical high.Here,we show that the extreme drought in the spring of 2021 may be mainly driven by the atmospheric internal variability and amplified by the warming trend.Specifically,the evaporation increase due to the high temperature accounts for about 30%of drought severity,with the contributions of its linear trend portion being nearly 20%and the interannual variability portion being about 10%.Since the sea surface temperature forcing from the tropical central and eastern Pacific played a minor role in the occurrence of drought,it is a challenge for a climate model to capture the 2021 SWC drought beyond one-month lead times.

关键词： extreme spring drought Southwestern China precipitation evaporation warming trend internal variability predictability

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Predictor-based error correction method in short-term climate prediction

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2008年第1期18卷 129-135页

作者： Hongli Ren Laboratory for climate studies,National climate center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China Laboratory for climate studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

In terms of the basic idea of combining dynamical and statistical methods in short-term climate prediction,a new prediction method of predictor-based error correction(PREC)is put forward in order to effectively use statistical experiences in dynamical prediction.Anal- yses show that the PREC can reasonably utilize the significant correlations between predictors and model prediction errors and correct prediction errors by establishing statistical prediction model.Besides,the PREC is further applied to the cross-validation experiments of dynamical seasonal prediction on the operational atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model of China Meteorological Admin- istration/National climate center by selecting the sea surface temperature index in Ninflo3 region as the physical predictor that represents the prevailing ENSO-cycle mode of interannual variability in climate system.It is shown from the prediction results of summer mean circulation and total precipitation that the PREC can improve predictive skills to some extent.Thus the PREC provides a new approach for improving short-term climate prediction.

关键词： Short-term climate prediction Seasonal prediction Predictor Error correction

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Identification of winter long-lasting regional extreme low-temperature events in Eurasia and their variation during 1948—2017

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Advances in climate Change Research 2021年第3期12卷 353-362页

作者： ZHANG Ying-Xian LIU Yan-Ju DING Yi-Hui Laboratory for climate studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China

Compared with short-duration events,long-lasting regional extreme low-temperature events(RELTEs)often have more severe impacts on human societies due to the induced persistence and large geographic area of related weather and climate disaster.Accordingly,an improved objective technique was applied to identify all long-lasting RELTEs in Eurasia from the winter of 1948/1949 to 2017/2018,followed by an in-depth discussion of its variation in terms of the annual frequency,duration,impacted area,mean intensity,maximum intensity,and a comprehensive index.The RELTE lasting for 52 d in the winter of 2007/2008 exhibited the longest duration,largest impacted area,and a greatest comprehensive index,which induced extremely low temperatures for more than 20 d in Western Asia,Central Asia,and China.During the past 70 winters,the frequency of long-lasting RELTEs decreased,especially after the late 1960s.Nevertheless,the mean and maximum intensities and comprehensive index exhibited distinctly increasing trends.All indicators of winter long-lasting RELTEs had a similar inter-decadal fluctuation featured by two noticeable peaks occurring around 1970 and 2007,and a remarkable recovery was discovered in the period of late 1990s to mid-2010s,especially for the occurrence of super long-lasting events.Significantly,winter long-lasting RELTEs in Eurasia showed distinct trends under various decadal climate backgrounds,i.e.,a strong negative or weak positive trend in the accelerated warming period and conversely,a strong positive or weak negative trend in the wanning slowdown stage.These findings indicate that we should be alert of the similar future recovery of winter long-lasting RELTEs in Eurasia,which are likely to occur in the slowdown period of global warming.

关键词： Regional extreme low-temperature events Winter Long-lasting Eurasia climate variation

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Spatiotemporal characteristics and water budget of water cycle elements in different seasons in northeast China

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Chinese Physics B 2015年第4期24卷 563-570页

作者：周杰赵俊虎何文平龚志强 Department of Physical Science and Technology Yangzhou University Laboratory for climate studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration

In this paper, we study the spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitable water, precipitation, evaporation, and watervapor flux divergence in different seasons over northeast China and the water balance of that area. The data used in this paper is provided by the European center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF）. The results show that the spatial distributions of precipitable water, precipitation, and evaporation feature that the values of elements above in the southeastern area are larger than those in the northwestern area; in summer, much precipitation and evaporation occur in the Changbai Mountain region as a strong moisture convergence region; in spring and autumn, moisture divergence dominates the northeast of China; in winter, the moisture divergence and convergence are weak in this area. From 1979 to 2010, the total precipitation of summer and autumn in northeast China decreased significantly; especially from 1999 to 2010, the summer precipitation always demonstrated negative anomaly. Additionally, other elements in different seasons changed in a truly imperceptible way. In spring, the evaporation exceeded the precipitation in northeast China; in summer, the precipitation was more prominent; in autumn and winter, precipitation played a more dominating role than the evaporation in the northern part of northeast China, while the evaporation exceeded the precipitation in the southern part. The Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis （ERA-Interim） data have properly described the water balance of different seasons in northeast China. Based on ERA-Interim data, the moisture sinks computed through moisture convergence and moisture local variation are quite consistent with those computed through precipitation and evaporation, which proves that ERA- Interim data can be used in the research of water balance in northeast China. On a seasonal scale, the moisture convergence has a greater influence than the local moisture variation on a moisture sink, and the latter is variable slightly, generally as a constant. Likewi

关键词： ERA-Interim data water cycle moisture budget spatiotemporal characteristic

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