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Impacts of global warming on southern California's winegrape climate suitability

Advances in climate Change Research 2020年第3期11卷 279-293页

作者： Corrie MONTE VERDE Fernando DE SALES Geography Department San Diego State UniversitySan DiegoCA92182USA Center for Climate and Sustainability Studies San Diego State UniversitySan DiegoCA92182USA

Southern California has seen a resurgence of winegrowing regions in the past few decades,however the future of winegrape climatic suitability in the area has not been exhaustively explored.This study evaluated the future climate suitability for the cultivation of winegrape and potential global warming impacts on southern California's winegrowing regions through a series of high-resolution surface air temperature and precipitation projections obtained with the WRF-SSIB regional climate model.Results reveal that by mid-21st-century the surface air temperature will increase by approximately 1.2℃,while average precipitation will decrease by as much as 11%in the southern winegrowing areas under the Intergovernmental Panel on climate Change high greenhouse-gas emissions scenario.Evaluation of bioclimatic suitability indices indicate increases in heat accumulation for all major winegrowing areas;including an increase of about 10% in growing-degree day,while morning low temperatures in September may experience increases of approximately 11% in the future,thus impacting negatively the ripening stage of grapevines and leading to changes in wine composition and quality.Additionally,the extent of areas classified under the cool to warm climate suitability categories could decrease by nearly 42% in the study area by 2050.Conditions in southern California are already warm and dry for viticulture and continuing heat accumulation increase,along with rainfall reduction,could potentially place additional stress to winegrape crop in the area,including advanced phenological timing and moisture deficit stress that could lead to decreases in yield.The projected decline in viticulture suitability highlights the need for adaptive capacity within this sector to mitigate the impacts of global warming.Possible mitigating strategies include planting hotter climate grape varieties,moving vineyards to regions that are more suitable in the future,and adopting dry-farming techniques.

关键词： Global warming Winegrape suitability Regional climate modeling Bioclimatic indices Dynamical downscaling

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Changes in extreme high temperature warning indicators over China under different global warming levels

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第6期67卷 1895-1909页

作者： Yuxia ZHANG Ying SUN Ting HU Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081China National climate center Laboratory for Climate StudiesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

High temperature warning indicators play a pivotal role in meteorological departments,serving as crucial criteria for issuing warnings that guide both social production and daily life.Despite their importance,limited studies have explored the relationship between different global warming levels and changes in high temperature warning indicators.In this study,we analyze data from 2,419 meteorological stations over China and utilize the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models to examine historical changes in high temperature warning indicators used by the China Meteorological Administration.We evaluate model performance and estimate future changes in these indicators using an annual cycle bias correction method.The results indicate that since 1961,the number of high temperature days(TX35d and TX40d)and length of season(TX40d and TX40l)with daily maximum temperature reaching or exceeding 35℃ and 40℃ have increased over China.The intensity of high temperatures(TXx)has strengthened and the geographical extent affected by high temperatures has expanded.In 2022,the occurrence of 40℃ high temperatures surges,with Eastern China experiencing a two-day increase in TX40d and an extended seasonal length in TX40l by over five days.While CMIP6 models have underestimated the high temperature indictors associated with 35℃ during historical periods,notable difference is not observed between the models and observations for TX40d and TX40l,given their rare occurrence.However,future projections,after bias correction,indicate that the increasing trends for 35℃ and 40℃ high temperature days and length of season become more pronounced than the raw projection,suggesting a more severe increase than that anticipated originally.As global warming intensifies,the high temperature days and length of season are projected to increase non-linearly,while the intensity of high temperatures is expected to increase linearly.For every 1℃ increase in global temperature,the intensity is projected to rise by approximately 1.4℃.The impa

关键词： Extreme high temperatures Meteorological warning CMIP6 Global warming levels Future projection

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An Index-Based Approach to Assess Social Vulnerability for Hamburg, Germany

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2023年第5期14卷 782-794页

作者： Malte von Szombathely Franziska S.Hanf Janka Bareis Linda Meier Jürgen Oßenbrügge Thomas Pohl Institute for Geography Center for Earth System Research and SustainabilityUniversität Hamburg20146HamburgGermany Meteorological Institute Center for Earth System Research and SustainabilityUniversität Hamburg20146HamburgGermany Institute for Geography Universität Hamburg20146HamburgGermany Research Unit for sustainability and climate Risks Center for Earth System Research and SustainabilityUniversität Hamburg20144HamburgGermany

In this study,we set out to develop a new social vulnerability index(SVI).In doing so,we suggest some conceptual improvements that can be made to existing methodical approaches to assessing social vulnerability.To make the entanglement of socio-spatial inequalities visible,we are conducting a small-scale study on heterogeneous urban development in the city of Hamburg,Germany.This kind of high-resolution analysis was not previously available,but is increasingly requested by political decision makers.We can thus show hot spots of social vulnerability(SV)in Hamburg,considering the effects of social welfare,education,and age.In doing so,we defined SV as a contextual concept that follows the recent shift in discourse in line with the Intergovernmental Panel on climate Change’s(IPCC)concepts of risk and vulnerability.Our SVI consists of two subcomponents:sensitivity and coping capacity.Populated areas of Hamburg were identified using satellite information and merged with the social data units of the city.Areas with high SVI are distributed over the entire city,notably in the district of Harburg and the Reiherstieg quarter in Wilhelmsburg near the Elbe,as well as in the densely populated inner city areas of Eimsbüttel and St.Pauli.As a map at a detailed scale,our SVI can be a useful tool to identify areas where the population is most vulnerable to climate-related hazards.We conclude that an enhanced understanding of urban social vulnerability is a prerequisite for urban risk management and urban resilience planning.

关键词： climate change adaptation Hamburg Risk approach Social vulnerability Social vulnerability index

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Identification of winter long-lasting regional extreme low-temperature events in Eurasia and their variation during 1948—2017

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Advances in climate Change Research 2021年第3期12卷 353-362页

作者： ZHANG Ying-Xian LIU Yan-Ju DING Yi-Hui Laboratory for climate studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China

Compared with short-duration events,long-lasting regional extreme low-temperature events(RELTEs)often have more severe impacts on human societies due to the induced persistence and large geographic area of related weather and climate disaster.Accordingly,an improved objective technique was applied to identify all long-lasting RELTEs in Eurasia from the winter of 1948/1949 to 2017/2018,followed by an in-depth discussion of its variation in terms of the annual frequency,duration,impacted area,mean intensity,maximum intensity,and a comprehensive index.The RELTE lasting for 52 d in the winter of 2007/2008 exhibited the longest duration,largest impacted area,and a greatest comprehensive index,which induced extremely low temperatures for more than 20 d in Western Asia,Central Asia,and China.During the past 70 winters,the frequency of long-lasting RELTEs decreased,especially after the late 1960s.Nevertheless,the mean and maximum intensities and comprehensive index exhibited distinctly increasing trends.All indicators of winter long-lasting RELTEs had a similar inter-decadal fluctuation featured by two noticeable peaks occurring around 1970 and 2007,and a remarkable recovery was discovered in the period of late 1990s to mid-2010s,especially for the occurrence of super long-lasting events.Significantly,winter long-lasting RELTEs in Eurasia showed distinct trends under various decadal climate backgrounds,i.e.,a strong negative or weak positive trend in the accelerated warming period and conversely,a strong positive or weak negative trend in the wanning slowdown stage.These findings indicate that we should be alert of the similar future recovery of winter long-lasting RELTEs in Eurasia,which are likely to occur in the slowdown period of global warming.

关键词： Regional extreme low-temperature events Winter Long-lasting Eurasia climate variation

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Towards climate neutrality for household energy consumption

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National Science Review 2022年第7期9卷 12-12页

作者： Ortwin Renn Institute for Advanced sustainability studies

The Paris Agreement,reinforced by the 2021 conference in Glasgow,obliges all nations that have signed the agreements to reduce the release of greenhouse gases to zero within the next few decades.China’ s central government has made two signature commitments on climate,pledging that the country’ s carbon dioxide emissions will peak before 2030,and the country will achieve carbon neutrality before 2060,

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Projected increases in population exposure of daily climate extremes in eastern China by 2050

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Advances in climate Change Research 2021年第6期12卷 804-813页

作者： SUN Shao DAI Tan-Long WANG Zun-Ya CHOU Jie-Ming CHAO Qing-Chen SHI Pei-Jun Laboratory for climate studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences University of ColoradoBoulderCO80309USA Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing100875China

climate extremes pose severe threats to human health,economic stability and environmental sustainability,especially in densely populated areas.It is generally believed that global warming drives increase in frequency,intensity and duration of climate extremes,and socioeconomic exposure plays a dominant role in climate impacts.In order to promote climate risk governance at regional level,the historical and projected trends in the population exposure to climate extremes are quantified in eastern China using downscaled climate simulations and population growth scenarios.The frequency of temperature extremes(tx35days)is projected to more than double by 2050 in nearly half of prefecture-level cities in eastern China,leading to an 81.8%increment of total exposure under SSP2-4.5 scenario.The increasing trend is also detectable in the frequency of precipitation extremes(r20mm)in eastern China,and the exposure increment is projected to be 22.9%by 2050,with a near equivalent contributions of both climate change and population growth.Spatially,temperature exposure mainly grows in southern Hebei,western Shandong and inland Guangdong provinces,while precipitation exposure raises principally in southeast coastal areas of China.Based on the historical baseline and projected amplification of population exposure,we identify some hotspot cities such as Guangzhou,Shanghai,Dongguan and Hangzhou that response to climate change dramatically and confront greater potential risk of climate extremes in the coming future.

关键词： climate projection Extreme events Population exposure Future scenario Eastern China

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MJO ensemble prediction in BCC-CSM1.1(m)using different initialization schemes

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2016年第1期9卷 60-65页

作者： Ren Hong-Li Wu Jie Zhao Chong-Bo Cheng Yan-Jie Liu Xiang-Wen Laboratory for climate studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological Administration

热带大气季节内振荡(MJO)预报是国际研究热点,我国尚处于起步阶段。近些年国际上MJO预报水平得到大幅提升,主要得益于包含海气耦合过程的气候模式的使用,这其中模式预报初始化和集合扰动生成方法至关重要。本文发展了适用于国家气候中... 详细信息

热带大气季节内振荡(MJO)预报是国际研究热点,我国尚处于起步阶段。近些年国际上MJO预报水平得到大幅提升,主要得益于包含海气耦合过程的气候模式的使用,这其中模式预报初始化和集合扰动生成方法至关重要。本文发展了适用于国家气候中心第二代气候预测业务模式BCC-CSM1.1(m)的MJO初始化方案,并在此基础上提出了基于不同初始化方案形成扰动的集合预报新方法,可以将MJO有技巧预报时效延长到约20天,为次季节-季节预报提供重要依据。

关键词：集合预报 MJO 初始化气候系统模式预测系统集合平均温带气候季节内变化

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Understanding human influence on climate change in China

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National Science Review 2022年第3期9卷 128-143页

作者： Ying Sun Xuebin Zhang Yihui Ding Deliang Chen Dahe Qin Panmao Zhai National climate center Laboratory for Climate Studies Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology climate Research Division Environment and Climate Change Canada Department of Earth Sciences University of Gothenburg China Meteorological Administration State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

China’s climate has been warming since the 1950s, with surface air temperature increasing at a rate higher than the global average. Changes in climate have exerted substantial impacts on water resources,agriculture, ecosystems and human health. Attributing past changes to causes provides a scientific foundation for national and international climate policies. Here, we review recent progress in attributing the observed climate changes over past decades in China. Anthropogenic forcings, dominated by greenhouse gas emissions, are the main drivers for observed increases in mean and extreme temperatures. Evidence of the effect of anthropogenic forcings on precipitation is emerging. Human influence has increased the probability of extreme heat events, and has likely changed the occurrence probabilities for some heavy precipitation events. The way a specific attribution question is posed and the conditions under which the question is addressed present persistent challenges for appropriately communicating attribution results to non-specialists.

关键词： human influence detection and attribution climate change climate extremes

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Chinese science diplomacy in Arctic climate governance based on a survey and interviews with Chinese scientists

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Advances in Polar Science 2022年第4期33卷 356-367页

作者： XU Qingchao XU Qingying University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China center for Arctic sustainability studies China Institute for Innovation and Development StrategyBeijing 100044China Beijing College of Finance and Commerce Beijing 101101China

Science diplomacy is attracting increasing attention in the international relations literature.This study investigates how Chinese scientists understand this term and explores China’s dynamic praxis in Arctic climate governance.It conducts a theoretical and practical examination of science diplomacy in terms of three dimensions—science in diplomacy,diplomacy for science,and science for diplomacy—thus achieving a high degree of consistency.A multi-method approach,combining qualitative and quantitative research methodologies and involving the adoption of a literature review,participant interviews,and questionnaires,is adopted.Data were collected from interviews with 16 Chinese scientists involved in Arctic climate governance and from 130 valid questionnaires collected from Chinese natural scientists working in the climate change field.Drawing on qualitative and quantitative findings,the study reveals that the three-dimensional framework of science diplomacy can provide insight into Chinese scientists’understandings of the topic.In contrast to the participants’vague theoretical responses,the outlines of China’s Arctic climate governance can be clearly identified within this framework.The study concludes by underlining the tension between theory and practice in terms of science diplomacy and highlighting the emerging challenges for China in developing its Arctic science diplomacy against the background of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict.Moreover,it is suggested that,to further develop China’s Arctic science diplomacy,it is vital to take account of the deficiencies in China’s science diplomacy.The study’s empirical results contribute to an understanding of the dynamic nature of science diplomacy in the Chinese context.

关键词： science diplomacy science and technology diplomacy China’s engagement in the Arctic Arctic science diplomacy Arctic climate governance

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Objective identification research on cold vortex and mid-summer rainy periods in Northeast China

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Chinese Physics B 2015年第4期24卷 571-580页

作者：龚志强封泰晨房一禾 Laboratory for climate studies and climate Monitoring and Diagnose National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Atmosphere and Science College Lanzhou University Regional climate center of Shenyang

Considering the differences between the Northeast China Cold Vortex （CV） and the Mid-Summer （MS） rainy period and their corresponding atmospheric circulations are comprehensively analyzed, and the objective identification methods of defining the annual beginning and ending dates of Northeast China CV and MS rainy periods are developed respectively. The annual beginning date of the CV （MS） rainy period is as follows. In a period from April to August, if daily regional mean precipitation ryi is larger than yearly regional mean precipitation R （or 2R） on a certain day, the station precipitation rs is larger than the station yearly mean precipitation （r/ （or 2（r）） in at least 50% of stations in Northeast China, and this condition is satisfied in the following 2 （7） days, then this date is defined as the beginning date of the CV （MS） rainy period. While the definition of the ending date of the MS rainy period shows the opposite process to its beginning date. With this objective identification method, the multi-year average （1981-2010） beginning date of the CV rainy period is May 3, the beginning date of the MS rainy period is June 27, the ending day of the CV rainy period is defined as the day before the beginning date of the MS rainy period, and the ending date of the MS rainy period is August 29. Meanwhile, corresponding anomaly analysis at a 500-hPa geopotential height, 850-hPa wind, Omega and relative humidity fields all show that the definitions of the average beginning and ending dates of the CV and MS rainy periods have a certain circulation meaning. Furthermore, the daily evolution of the CV index, meridional and zonal wind index, etc. all show that these objectively defined beginning and ending dates of the CV and MS rainy periods have climate significance.

关键词： Northeast China cold vortex rainy period mid-summer rain period objective identification method

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