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An Initial Perturbation Method for the Multiscale Singular Vector in Global Ensemble prediction

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第3期41卷 545-563页

作者： Xin LIU Jing CHEN Yongzhu LIU Zhenhua HUO Zhizhen XU Fajing CHEN Jing WANG Yanan MA Yumeng HAN School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081China CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre(CEMC) Beijing 100081China Key Laboratory of earth system modeling and prediction of China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081China Tianjin Meteorological Observatory Tianjin 300074China China Meteorological Administration Xiong’an Atmospheric Boundary Layer Key Laboratory Hebei 071799China

Ensemble prediction is widely used to represent the uncertainty of single deterministic Numerical Weather prediction(NWP) caused by errors in initial conditions(ICs). The traditional Singular Vector(SV) initial perturbation method tends only to capture synoptic scale initial uncertainty rather than mesoscale uncertainty in global ensemble prediction. To address this issue, a multiscale SV initial perturbation method based on the China Meteorological Administration Global Ensemble prediction system(cma-GEPS) is proposed to quantify multiscale initial uncertainty. The multiscale SV initial perturbation approach entails calculating multiscale SVs at different resolutions with multiple linearized physical processes to capture fast-growing perturbations from mesoscale to synoptic scale in target areas and combining these SVs by using a Gaussian sampling method with amplitude coefficients to generate initial perturbations. Following that, the energy norm,energy spectrum, and structure of multiscale SVs and their impact on GEPS are analyzed based on a batch experiment in different seasons. The results show that the multiscale SV initial perturbations can possess more energy and capture more mesoscale uncertainties than the traditional single-SV method. Meanwhile, multiscale SV initial perturbations can reflect the strongest dynamical instability in target areas. Their performances in global ensemble prediction when compared to single-scale SVs are shown to(i) improve the relationship between the ensemble spread and the root-mean-square error and(ii) provide a better probability forecast skill for atmospheric circulation during the late forecast period and for short-to medium-range precipitation. This study provides scientific evidence and application foundations for the design and development of a multiscale SV initial perturbation method for the GEPS.

关键词： multiscale uncertainty singular vector initial perturbation global ensemble prediction system

Vector Radiative Transfer in a Vertically Inhomogeneous Scattering and Emitting Atmosphere.PartⅠ:A New Discrete Ordinate Method

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第2期38卷 209-224页

作者： Ziqiang ZHU Fuzhong WENG Yang HAN Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Beijing 100081 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

The original vector discrete ordinate radiative transfer(VDISORT)model takes into account Stokes radiance vector but derives its solution assuming azimuthal symmetric surface reflective matrix and atmospheric scattering phase matrix,such as the phase matrix derived from spherical particles or randomly oriented non-spherical particles.In this study,a new VDISORT is developed for general atmospheric scattering and boundary conditions.Stokes vector is decomposed into both sinusoidal and cosinusoidal harmonic modes,and the radiance at arbitrary viewing geometry is solved directly by adding two zero-weighted points in the Gaussian quadrature scheme.The complex eigenvalues in homogeneous solutions are also taken into full consideration.The accuracy of VDISORT model is comprehensively validated by four cases:Rayleigh scattering case,the spherical particle scattering case with the Legendre expansion coefficients of 0th-13th orders of the phase matrix(hereinafter L13),L13 with a polarized source,and the randomoriented oblate particle scattering case with the Legendre expansion coefficients of 0th-11th orders of the phase matrix(hereinafter L11).In all cases,the simulated radiances agree well with the benchmarks,with absolute biases less than 0.0065,0.0006,and 0.0008 for Rayleigh,unpolarized L13,and L11,respectively.Since a polarized bidirectional reflection distribution function(pBRDF)matrix is used as the lower boundary condition,VDISORT is now able to handle fully coupled atmospheric and surface polarimetric radiative transfer processes.

关键词： radiative transfer discrete ordinate polarization Stokes vector vector discrete ordinate radiative transfer(VDISORT)

Cloud-Type-Dependent 1DVAR Algorithm for Retrieving Hydrometeors and Precipitation in Tropical Cyclone Nanmadol from GMI Data

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第3期41卷 407-419页

作者： Linjun HAN Fuzhong WENG Hao HU Xiuqing HU School of the Environment China University of Geosciences(Wuhan)Wuhan 430074China Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081China CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre Beijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellites National Satellite Meteorological Center(National Center for Space Weather)of CMABeijing 100081China

Understanding the structure of tropical cyclone(TC)hydrometeors is crucial for detecting the changes in the distribution and intensity of precipitation.In this study,the GMI brightness temperature and cloud-dependent 1DVAR algorithm were used to retrieve the hydrometeor profiles and surface rain rate of TC Nanmadol(2022).The Advanced Radiative Transfer modeling system(ARMS)was used to calculate the Jacobian and degrees of freedom(△DOF)of cloud water,rainwater,and graupel for different channels of GMI in convective conditions.The retrieval results were compared with the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar(DPR),GMI 2A,and IMERG products.It is shown that from all channels of GMI,rain water has the highest△DOF,at 1.72.According to the radiance Jacobian to atmospheric state variables,cloud water emission dominates its scattering.For rain water,the emission of channels 1–4 dominates scattering.Compared with the GMI 2A precipitation product,the 1DVAR precipitation rate has a higher correlation coefficient(0.713)with the IMERG product and can better reflect the location of TC precipitation.Near the TC eyewall,the highest radar echo top indicates strong convection.Near the melting layer where Ka-band attenuation is strong,the double frequency difference of DPR data reflects the location of the melting.The DPR drop size distribution(DSD)product shows that there is a significant increase in particle size below the melting layer in the spiral rain band.Thus,the particle size may be one of the main reasons for the smaller rain water below the melting layer retrieved from 1DVAR.

关键词： cloud-dependent 1DVAR hydrometeor precipitation GMI DPR

Added Benefit of the Early-Morning-Orbit Satellite Fengyun-3E on the Global Microwave Sounding of the Three-Orbit Constellation

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第1期41卷 39-52页

作者： Juan LI Zhengkun QIN Guiqing LIU Jing HUANG CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre Beijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Joint Center for Data Assimilation Research and Applications School of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China

The three-orbit constellation can comprehensively increase the spatial coverage of polar-orbiting satellites,but the polar-orbiting satellites currently in operation are only mid-morning-orbit and afternoon-orbit satellites.Fengyun-3E(FY-3E)was launched successfully on 5 July 2021 in China.As an early-morning-orbit satellite,FY-3E can help form a complete three-orbit observation system together with the mid-morning and afternoon satellites in the current mainstream operational system.In this study,we investigate the added benefit of FY-3E microwave sounding observations to the midmorning-orbit Meteorological Operational satellite-B(Met Op-B)and afternoon-orbit Fengyun-3D(FY-3D)microwave observations in the Chinese Meteorological Administration global forecast system(cma-GFS).The results show that the additional FY-3E microwave temperature sounder-3(MWTS-3)and microwave humidity sounder-2(MWHS-2)data can increase the global coverage of microwave temperature and humidity sounding data by 14.8% and 10.6%,respectively.It enables the cma-GFS to achieve nearly 100% global coverage of microwave-sounding observations at each analysis time.Furthermore,after effective quality control and bias correction,the global biases and standard deviations of the differences between observations and model simulations are also reduced.Based on the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit A and the Microwave Humidity Sounder onboard Met Op-B,and the MWTS-2 and MWHS-2 onboard FY-3D,adding the microwave sounding data of FY-3E can further reduce the errors of analysis results and improve the global prediction skills of cma-GFS,especially for the southern-hemisphere forecasts within 96 hours,all of which are significant at the 95% confidence level.

关键词： data assimilation microwave temperature sounder MWTS-3

Improved Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation on Land in a Global Non-Hydrostatic Model Using a Revised NSAS Deep Convective Scheme

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第6期41卷 1217-1234页

作者： Yifan ZHAO Xindong PENG Xiaohan LI Siyuan CHEN State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre Beijing 100081China 2035 Future Laboratory PIESAT Information Technology Co Ltd.Beijing 100195China

In relatively coarse-resolution atmospheric models,cumulus parameterization helps account for the effect of subgridscale convection,which produces supplemental rainfall to the grid-scale precipitation and impacts the diurnal cycle of precipitation.In this study,the diurnal cycle of precipitation was studied using the new simplified Arakawa-Schubert scheme in a global non-hydrostatic atmospheric model,i.e.,the Yin-Yang-grid Unified Model for the Atmosphere.Two new diagnostic closures and a convective trigger function were suggested to emphasize the job of the cloud work function corresponding to the free tropospheric large-scale forcing.Numerical results of the 0.25-degree model in 3-month batched real-case simulations revealed an improvement in the diurnal precipitation variation by using a revised trigger function with an enhanced dynamical constraint on the convective initiation and a suitable threshold of the trigger.By reducing the occurrence of convection during peak solar radiation hours,the revised scheme was shown to be effective in delaying the appearance of early-afternoon rainfall peaks over most land areas and accentuating the nocturnal peaks that were wrongly concealed by the more substantial afternoon peak.In addition,the revised scheme enhanced the simulation capability of the precipitation probability density function,such as increasing the extremely low-and high-intensity precipitation events and decreasing small and moderate rainfall events,which contributed to the reduction of precipitation bias over mid-latitude and tropical land areas.

关键词： cumulus parameterization diurnal cycle of precipitation large-scale dynamic forcing global non-hydrostatic atmospheric model performance verification

Impact of Atmospheric Transmittance and NLTE Correction on Simulation of High Spectral Infrared Atmospheric Sounder onboard FY-3E

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第2期38卷 225-234页

作者： Chenggege FANG Peiming DONG Yang HAN Wanlin KAN Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China Meteorological AdministrationNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 Donghai Laboratory Zhoushan 316021 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Beijing 100081 Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric SciencesNanjing 210041

With the launch of the first civilian early-morning orbit satellite Fengyun-3E(FY-3E),higher demands are placed on the accuracy of radiative transfer simulations for hyperspectral infrared data.Therefore,several key issues are investigated in the paper.First,the accuracy of the fast atmospheric transmittance model implemented in the Advanced Research and modeling system(ARMS)has been evaluated with both the line-by-line radiative transfer model(LBLRTM)and the actual satellite observations.The results indicate that the biases are generally less than 0.25 K when compared to the LBLRTM,while below 1.0 K for the majority of the channels when compared to the observations.However,during both comparisons,significant biases are observed in certain channels.The accuracy of Hyperspectral Infrared Atmospheric Sounder-II(HIRAS-II)onboard FY-3E is comparable to,and even superior to that of the Cross-track Infrared Sounder(CrIS)onboard NOAA-20.Furthermore,apodization is a crucial step in the processing of hyperspectral data in that the apodization function is utilized as the instrument channel spectral response function to produce the satellite channel-averaged transmittance.To further explore the difference between the apodized and unapodized simulations,Sinc function is adopted in the fast transmittance model.It is found that the use of Sinc function can make the simulations fit the original satellite observations better.When simulating with apodized observations,the use of Sinc function exhibits larger deviations compared to the Hamming function.Moreover,a correction module is applied to minimize the impact of Non-Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium(NLTE)in the shortwave infrared band.It is verified that the implementation of the NLTE correction model leads to a significant reduction in the bias between the simulation and observation for this band.

关键词： high spectral infrared sounding atmospheric transmittance apodization Non-Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium Fengyun-3E(FY-3E)

Assessment of climate damage in China based on integrated assessment framework

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第1期15卷 124-133页

作者： Jie LIU Xiang-Zhen SHI Li YANG Chang-Yi LIU Jin-Cheng WANG Rui-Min ZHU Xue-Li SHI Qiu-Feng LIU International Business School Shanxi Normal UniversityXi'an 710062China University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Bejing 102488China School of Economics and Management Xinjiang UniversityUrumqi 830046China Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization(GEIDCO) Bejing 100031China Hubei Enshi College Enshi 445099China CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China National Climate centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

Developing a localized and consistent model framework for climate loss and damage assessment is crucial for the policy-making of climate change mitigation and adaptation.This study introduces a comprehensive,multidisciplinary Integrated Assessment Model(IAM)framework for evaluating climate damage in China,utilizing BCC-SESM climate model and FUND sectoral climate damage model under the SSP2-RCPs scenario.Employing a bottom-up approach,the research estimates climate damage across eight major sectors,recalibrates sectoral climate damage functions and parameters for China,and elucidates distinctions among direct climate loss,market climate loss,and aggregate climate loss.The findings reveal that the total climate damage function for China follows a quadratic pattern in response to temperature rise.By 2050,the estimated climate damage is projected to be 5.4%,5.7%,and 8.2%of GDP under RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5,respectively.Additionally,both direct and market climate losses are projected to remain below 2%of GDP by 2050,while the aggregate climate loss could reach as high as 8.2%,which is predominantly attributed to non-market sectors.From a sectoral perspective,under the RCP8.5 scenario,human health damage constitutes the largest share(61.9%)of the total climate loss by 2050,followed by sea-level rise damage(18.6%).This study sheds lights on the adaptation policy that should attach importance to the non-market sectors,particularly focusing on human health and sea-level rise.

关键词： Climate loss and damage Integrated assessment model(IAM) FUND model Representative concentration pathways(RCPs)scenario BCC-SESM

A Long-Time-Step-Permitting Tracer Transport Model on the Regular Latitude–Longitude Grid

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第3期41卷 493-508页

作者： Jianghao LI Li DONG Key Laboratory of earth system modeling and prediction China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China State key Laboratory of Numerical modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP)Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(LaSW) Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China College of earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

If an explicit time scheme is used in a numerical model, the size of the integration time step is typically limited by the spatial resolution. This study develops a regular latitude–longitude grid-based global three-dimensional tracer transport model that is computationally stable at large time-step sizes. The tracer model employs a finite-volume flux-form semiLagrangian transport scheme in the horizontal and an adaptively implicit algorithm in the vertical. The horizontal and vertical solvers are coupled via a straightforward operator-splitting technique. Both the finite-volume scheme's onedimensional slope-limiter and the adaptively implicit vertical solver's first-order upwind scheme enforce monotonicity. The tracer model permits a large time-step size and is inherently conservative and monotonic. Idealized advection test cases demonstrate that the three-dimensional transport model performs very well in terms of accuracy, stability, and efficiency. It is possible to use this robust transport model in a global atmospheric dynamical core.

关键词： tracer transport numerical stability latitude–longitude grid

Counteracting effects on ENSO induced by ocean chlorophyll interannual variability and tropical instability wave-scale perturbations in the tropical Pacific

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Science China earth Sciences 2024年第2期67卷 387-404页

作者： Rong-Hua ZHANG Feng TIAN Qidong SHI Xiujun WANG Tongwen WU School of Marine Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing210044China Laoshan Laboratory Qingdao266237China Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of SciencesQingdao266071China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing101408China Faculty of Geographical Sciences Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing100875China earth system modeling and prediction centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China

Large perturbations in chlorophyll(Chl)are observed to coexist at interannual and tropical instability wave(TIW)scales in the tropical Pacific;at present,their combined effects on El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)through ocean biologyinduced heating(OBH)feedbacks are not understood well.Here,a hybrid coupled model(HCM)for the atmosphere and ocean physics-biogeochemistry(AOPB)in the tropical Pacific is adopted to quantify how ENSO can be modulated by Chl perturbations at interannual and TIW scales,individually or collectively,respectively.The HCM-based sensitivity experiments demonstrate a counteracting effect on ENSO:the bio-climate feedback due to large-scale Chl interannual variability acts to damp ENSO through its impact on upper-ocean stratification and vertical mixing,whereas that due to TIW-scale Chl perturbations tends to amplify ENSO.Because ENSO simulations are sensitively dependent on the ways Chl effects are represented at these different scales,it is necessary to adequately take into account these related differential Chl effects in climate modeling.A bias source for ENSO simulations is illustrated that is related with the Chl effects in the tropical Pacific,adding in a new insight into interactions between the climate system and ocean ecosystem on different scales in the region.These results reveal a level of complexity of ENSO modulations resulting from Chl effects at interannual and TIW scales,which are associated with ocean biogeochemical processes and their interactions with physical processes in the tropical Pacific.

关键词： Ocean chlorophyll Bio-climate feedbacks Interannual variability Tropical instability waves Counteracting effects A hybrid coupled model