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A New Method to Identify the Maximum Time Interval between Individual Events in Compound Rainstorm and Heatwave Events

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2024年第3期15卷 453-466页

作者： Junlin Zhang Wei Xu Yu Qiao Xinli Liao Chenna Meng Qinmei Han Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education Beijing Normal University State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University national Climate center China Meteorological Administration

Growing evidence indicates that extreme heat and rain may occur in succession within short time periods and cause greater impacts than individual events separated in time and space. Therefore, many studies have examined the impacts of compound hazard events on the social-ecological system at various scales. The definition of compound events is fundamental for such research. However, there are no existing studies that support the determination of time interval between individual events of a compound rainstorm and heatwave(CRH) event, which consists of two or more potentially qualifying component heatwave and rainstorm events. To address the deficiency in defining what individual events can constitute a CRH event, this study proposed a novel method to determine the maximum time interval for CRH events through the change in CRH event frequency with increasing time interval between individual events, using southern china as a case study. The results show that the threshold identified by the proposed method is reasonable. For more than 90% of the meteorological stations, the frequency of CRH events has reached a maximum when the time interval is less than or equal to the threshold. This study can aid in time interval selection, which is an important step for subsequent study of CRH events.

关键词： Compound extreme weather event Rainstorm and heatwave Southern china Threshold Time interval

解析全球气候变化背景下的极端事件——PGW试验框架新发展（英文）

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Science Bulletin 2024年第2期 237-247页

作者：孙溦李建宇如聪李妮娜张祎 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Institute of Tibetan Plateau Meteorology China Meteorological Administration Department of Atmospheric Science Yunnan University national meteorological center China Meteorological Administration 2035.Future Laboratory PIESAT Information Technology Co. Ltd.

Understanding the responses of precipitation extremes to global climate change remains limited owing to their poor representations in models and complicated interactions with multi-scale systems. Here we take the record-breaking precipitation over china in 2021 as an example, and study its changes under three different climate scenarios through a developed pseudo-global-warming(PGW) experimental framework with 60–3 km variable-resolution global ensemble modeling. Compared to the present climate, the precipitation extreme under a warmer(cooler) climate increased(decreased) in intensity, coverage, and total amount at a range of 24.3%–37.8%(18.7%–5..1%). With the help of the proposed PGW experimental framework, we further reveal the impacts of the multi-scale system interactions in climate change on the precipitation extreme. Under the warmer climate, large-scale water vapor transport converged from double typhoons and the subtropical high marched into central china, enhancing the convective energy and instability on the leading edge of the transport belt. As a result, the mesoscale convective system(MCS) that directly contributed to the precipitation extreme became stronger than that in the present climate. On the contrary, the cooler climate displayed opposite changing characteristics relative to the warmer climate, ranging from the large-scale systems to local environments and to the MCS. In summary, our study provides a promising approach to scientifically assess the response of precipitation extremes to climate change, making it feasible to perform ensemble simulations while investigating the multi-scale system interactions over the globe.

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Large eddy simulation of flow over a three-dimensional hill with different slope angles

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2024年第1期18卷 98-111页

作者： Liang LI Deqian ZHENG Guixiang CHEN Pingzhi FANG Wenyong MA Shengming TANG School of Civil Engineering Henan University of TechnologyZhengzhou 450001China Henan International Joint Laboratory of Modern Green Ecological Storage System Zhengzhou 450001China Henan Key Laboratory of Grain Storage Facility and Safety Zhengzhou 450001China Shanghai Typhoon Institute of china meteorological administration Shanghai 200030China Wind Engineering Research center Shijiazhuang Tiedao UniversityShijiazhuang 050043China

Slope variation will significantly affect the characteristics of the wind field around a *** paper conducts a large-eddy simulation(LES)on an ideal 3D hill to study the impact of slope on wind field *** slopes ranging from 10°to 45.at 5.intervals are considered,which covers most conventional hill *** inflow turbulence for the LES is generated by adopting a modified generation method that combines the equilibrium boundary conditions with the Fluent inherent vortex method to improve the simulation *** time-averaged flow field and the instantaneous vortex structure under the eight slopes are comparatively *** accuracy of the present method is verified by comparison with experimental *** slope can affect both the mean and fluctuating wind flow fields around the 3D hill,especially on the hilltop and the leeward side,where a critical slope of 25.can be *** fluctuating wind speeds at the tops of steep hills(with slope angles beyond 25.)decrease with increasing slope,while the opposite phenomenon occurs on gentle *** increasing slope,the energy of the high-speed descending airflow is enhanced and pushes the separated flow closer to the hill surface,resulting in increased wind speed near the wall boundary on the leeward side and inhibiting the development of *** vortex shedding trajectory in the wake region becomes wider and longer,suppressing the growth of the mean wind near the wall boundary and enhancing the turbulence intensity.

关键词： large eddy simulation inflow turbulence topographic wind field critical slope flow mechanism

Interdecadal Change of the Relationship between Early Summer Precipitation over Northeast china and Spring Land Surface Thermal Anomalies in West Asia

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第4期38卷 720-732页

作者： Hongjun SUN Haishan CHEN Xinguan DU Yinshuo DONG Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044

Recent studies have suggested a close relationship between early summer precipitation over Northeast china and spring land surface thermal anomalies in West ***,is this relationship the same over the multidecadal timescale? This study aims to identify the long-term variation in this relationship and the accompanying atmospheric circulation anomalies by using singular value decomposition,correlation analysis,and linear regression based on the ECMWF Reanalysis v5.ERA5. atmospheric data,ERA-Land reanalysis,and CN05.gridded observations during1961–2020(60 yr).It is found that an interdecadal transition of the relationship between the spring surface temperature/thermal anomalies in West Asia and early summer precipitation over Northeast china occurred around 1990,and the temperature–rainfall relationship intensified after *** on the Mann–Kendall test,the study period was divided into P1(1961–1990) and P2(1991–2020).Further analysis indicated significant differences in the corresponding atmospheric circulation before and after the interdecadal *** P2,spring land surface warming in West Asia corresponded to a significantly enhanced early summer Circumglobal Teleconnection(CGT),which in turn suppressed the Northeast china cold vortex(NECV).The changes in circulation patterns further resulted in weakened moisture transport,strengthened subsidence,reduced precipitation triggering,and eventually,weakened ***,the results suggest that the interdecadal transition of the relationship and the changes in the corresponding atmospheric circulation may be related to activities of the westerly jet *** second principal component(PC2) mode of empirical orthogonal function(EOF) of zonal wind in June over Asia demonstrated a pattern similar to that of the atmospheric circulation corresponding to land surface thermal *** addition,during P2,the PC2 mode of the westerly jet stream in June showed a strong positive correlation

关键词： land–atmosphere interaction interdecadal variation land surface surface temperature

Large contributions of emission reductions and meteorological conditions to the abatement of PM_(2.5.in Beijing during the 24th Winter Olympic Games in 2022

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2024年第2期136卷 172-188页

作者： Yaping Jiang Shaocai Yu Xue Chen Yibo Zhang Mengying Li Zhen Li Zhe Song Pengfei Li Xiaoye Zhang Eric Lichtfouse Daniel Rosenfeld Key Laboratory of Environmental Remediation and Ecological Health Ministry of EducationResearch Center for Air Pollution and HealthCollege of Environmental and Resource SciencesZhejiang UniversityHangzhou 310058China College of Science and Technology Hebei Agricultural UniversityBaoding 071000China Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Aix-Marseille Univ CNRSColl FranceCNRSIRDINRAEEuropole Mediterraneen de l’ArboisAvenue Louis Philibert13100 Aix en ProvenceFrance Xi’an Jiaotong University State Key Laboratory of Multiphase Flow in Power EngineeringXi’an 710049China Institute of Earth Sciences The Hebrew University of JerusalemJerusalemIsrael

To guarantee the blue skies for the 2022 Winter Olympics held in Beijing and Zhangjiakou from February 4 to 20,Beijing and its surrounding areas adopted a series of emission control *** provides an opportunity to determine the impacts of large-scale temporary control measures on the air quality in Beijing during this special ***,we applied the WRF-CMAQ model to quantify the contributions of emission reduction measures and meteorological *** show that meteorological conditions in 2022 decreased PM_(2.5.in Beijing by 6.9 and 11.8μg/m^(3)relative to 2021 under the scenarios with and without emission reductions,*** emission reduction measures implemented in Beijing and seven neighboring provinces resulted in an average decrease of 13.0μg/m^(3)(-41.2%)in PM_(2.5.in *** the entire period,local emission reductions contributed more to good air quality in Beijing than nonlocal emission *** the emission reduction scenario,local,controlled regions,other regions,and boundary conditions contributed 47.7%,42.0%,5.3%,and 5.0%to the PM_(2.5.concentrations in Beijing,*** results indicate that during the cleaning period with the air masses from the northwest,the abatements of PM_(2.5.were mainly caused by local emission ***,during the potential pollution period with the air masses from the east-northeast and west-southwest,the abatements of PM_(2.5.were caused by both local and nonlocal emission reductions almost *** implies that regional coordinated prevention and control strategies need to be arranged scientifically and rationally when heavy pollution events are forecasted.

关键词： PM_(2.5. WRF-CMAQ meteorological conditions Emission reductions Winter Olympic games

New Record Ocean Temperatures and Related Climate Indicators in 2023

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第6期41卷 1068-1082页

作者： Lijing CHENG John ABRAHAM Kevin E.TRENBERTH Tim BOYER Michael EMANN Jiang ZHU Fan WANG Fujiang YU Ricardo LOCARNINI John FASULLO Fei ZHENG Yuanlong LI Bin ZHANG Liying WAN Xingrong CHEN Dakui WANG Licheng FENG Xiangzhou SONG Yulong LIU Franco RESEGHETTI Simona SIMONCELLI Viktor GOURETSKI Gengxin CHEN Alexey MISHONOV Jim REAGAN Karina VON SCHUCKMANN Yuying PAN Zhetao TAN Yujing ZHU Wangxu WEI Guancheng LI Qiuping REN Lijuan CAO Yayang LU International center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of St.Thomas School of EngineeringMinnesota 55105USA NSF national center for Atmospheric Research BoulderColorado 80307USA University of Auckland Auckland 1010New Zealand national Oceanic and Atmospheric administration National Centers for Environmental InformationSilver SpringMaryland 20910USA Department of Earth and Environmental Science University of PennsylvaniaPhiladelphiaPennsylvania 19104USA Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of SciencesQingdao 266071China national Marine Environmental Forecasting center Ministry of Natural Resources of ChinaBeijing 100081China Oceanographic Data center Chinese Academy of SciencesQingdao 266071China College of Oceanography Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China national Marine Data and Information Service Tianjin 300171China Italian national Agency for New Technologies Energy and Sustainable Economic DevelopmentS.Teresa Research CenterLerici 19032Italy Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Sede di BolognaBologna 40128Italy South china Sea Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510301China ESSIC/CISESS-MD University of MarylandCollege ParkMD20740USA Mercator Ocean International Toulouse 31400France Eco-Environmental Monitoring and Research center Pearl River Valley and South China Sea Ecology and Environment AdministrationMinistry of Ecology and EnvironmentPRCGuangzhou 510611China national meteorological Information center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China International Research center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals Beijing 100094China

The global physical and biogeochemical environment has been substantially altered in response to increased atmospheric greenhouse gases from human *** 2023,the sea surface temperature(SST)and upper 2000 m ocean heat content(OHC)reached record *** 0–2000 m OHC in 2023 exceeded that of 2022 by 15.10 ZJ(1 Zetta Joules=1021 Joules)(updated IAP/CAS data);9±5.ZJ(NCEI/NOAA data).The Tropical Atlantic Ocean,the Mediterranean Sea,and southern oceans recorded their highest OHC observed since the *** with the onset of a strong El Niño,the global SST reached its record high in 2023 with an annual mean of~0.23℃ higher than 2022 and an astounding>0.3℃ above 2022 values for the second half of *** density stratification and spatial temperature inhomogeneity indexes reached their highest values in 2023.

关键词： ocean heat content salinity stratification global warming climate

Assessing impact of intermittent window opening strategies on pathogen-laden droplet dispersion in a coach bus

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Building Simulation 2024年第7期17卷 1183-1200页

作者： Qiqi Luo Xingdong Deng Jian Hang Cuiyun Ou Zhiwen Luo Xiaodan Fan Xia Yang Yifei Zhang Zhongli Gu Xuelin Zhang School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong LaboratoryZhuhai 519082China Key Laboratory of Urban Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089China china meteorological administration Xiong'an Atmospheric Boundary Layer Key Laboratory Xiong'anChina Guangzhou Urban Planning&Design Survey Research Institute Guangzhou 510060China Guangzhou Collaborative Innovation center of Natural Resources Planning and Marine Technology Guangzhou 510060China Guangdong Enterprise Key Laboratory for Urban Sensing Monitoring and Early WarningGuangzhou 510060China Welsh Schoolof Architecture Cardiff UniversityUK Guangdong Province Engineering Laboratory for Air Pollution Control South China Institute of Environmental Sciencesthe Ministry of Ecology and Environment of ChinaNo.7 West Street YuancunGuangzhou 510655China Guangdong Fans-tech Agro Co. LtdGuangdong ProvinceChina

Opening windows in coach buses is a practical approach to improving natural ventilation and mitigating infection risk(IR).Due to human behavior and weather conditions,the intermittent window opening strategy(IWOS)is a more common practice than keeping windows constantly *** its prevalence,there are no studies exploring IWOS specifically in *** employed indoor-outdoor coupled CFD simulations to assess the effects of various IWOS on pathogen-laden droplet(PLD)dispersion and IR in a coach bus that occurred a COVID-19 outbreak in Hunan,*** reveal that after ventilating through two skylights for 600–1800 s,opening front and rear windows(FW+RW)or FW with a wind catcher(FW+WCH)for just 40 s can reduce PLD concentration(Cave)to 5.of its initial level and the intake fraction of the infector’s neighbor(IFn)drops by 95..Upon closing FW+RW or FW+WCH,Cave and IFn take over 5.0 s to return to the pre-opening ***,intermittent FW opening halves Cave and IFn within 7 min,but leads to rapid increases upon window ***,opening FW+RW and FW+WCH intermittently have pronounced impacts on indoor PLD concentration and are applicable approaches to control respiratory disease transmission in *** to the inhaled viral dose,it is recommended to open windows when driving time is over 12 minutes to reduce infection *** scenarios like epidemiological surveys and risk assessments,where assessing passenger infection risk is vital,some behaviors of opening windows cannot be overlooked and necessitate extra attention.

关键词： infection risk computational fluid dynamics air change rate per hour natural ventilation wind catcher tracer gas dispersion

Understanding and improving Yangtze River Basin summer precipitation prediction using an optimal multi-Physics ensemble

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2024年第1期18卷 256-277页

作者： Yang ZHAO Fengxue QIAO Xin-Zhong LIANG Jinhua YU Climate Environment and Sustainability CenterNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science(Ministry of Education) East China Normal UniversityShanghai 200241China School of Geographic Sciences East China Normal UniversityShanghai 200241China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science University of MarylandCollege Park MD 20740USA Earth System Science Interdisciplinary center University of MarylandCollege Park MD 20740USA Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster(KLME)(Ministry of Education)/Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

This study employs the regional Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model(CWRF)to first investigate the primary physical mechanisms causing biases in simulating summer precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin(YRB),and then enhance its predictive ability through an optimal multi-physics ensemble *** CWRF 30-km simulations in china are compared among 28 combinations of varying physics parameterizations during 1980−***-term average summer biases in YRB precipitation are remotely correlated with those of large-scale *** teleconnections of biases are highly consistent with the observed correlation patterns between interannual variations of precipitation and circulations,despite minor shifts in their primary action *** YRB precipitation aligns with a southward shifted East Asian westerly jet,an intensified low-level southerly flow south of YRB,and a south-eastward shifted South Asian high,alongside higher moisture availability over ***,decreased YRB precipitation corresponds to an opposite circulation *** CWRF control configuration using the ensemble cumulus parameterization(ECP),compared to other cumulus schemes,best captures the observed YRB precipitation characteristics and associated circulation *** ECP with the Morrison or Morrison-aerosol microphysics and the CCCMA or CAML radiation schemes enhances the overall CWRF *** to the control CWRF,the ensemble average of these skill-enhanced physics configurations more accurately reproduces YRB summer precipitation’s spatial distributions,interannual anomalies,and associated circulation *** Bayesian Joint Probability calibration to these configurations improves the ensemble’s spatial distributions but compromises its interannual anomalies and teleconnection *** findings highlight substantial potential for refining the representation of climate system physics to improve YRB precipitation *** is notabl

关键词： physics parameterization regional climate model downscaling skill enhancement multi-physics ensemble teleconnection bias reduction

Heat exposure and hospitalizations for chronic kidney disease in china: a nationwide time series study in 261 major Chinese cities

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Military Medical Research 2024年第4期11卷 469-478页

作者： Fu-Lin Wang Wan-Zhou Wang Fei-Fei Zhang Su-Yuan Peng Huai-Yu Wang Rui Chen Jin-Wei Wang Peng-Fei Li Yang Wang Ming-Hui Zhao Chao Yang Lu-Xia Zhang Institute of Medical Technology Peking University Health Science CenterBeijing 100191China national Institute of Health Data Science at Peking University Beijing 100191China Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences School of Public HealthPeking UniversityBeijing 100191China Renal Division Department of MedicinePeking University First HospitalPeking University Institute of NephrologyBeijing 100034China Research Units of Diagnosis and Treatment of Immune-Mediated Kidney Diseases Chinese Academy of Medical SciencesBeijing 100034China Advanced Institute of Information Technology Peking UniversityHangzhou 311215China national Climate center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Peking-Tsinghua center for Life Sciences Beijing 100034China

Background:Climate change profoundly shapes the population health at the global ***,there was still insufficient and inconsistent evidence for the association between heat exposure and chronic kidney disease(CKD).Methods:In the present study,we studied the association of heat exposure with hospitalizations for cause-specific CKD using a national inpatient database in china during the study period of hot season from 2015.to *** time-series regression models and random-effects Meta-analysis were developed to estimate the city-specific and national averaged associations at a 7 lag-day span,***:A total of 768,129 hospitalizations for CKD was recorded during the study *** results showed that higher temperature was associated with elevated risk of hospitalizations for CKD,especially in sub-tropical *** a 1℃ increase in daily mean temperature,the cumulative relative risks(RR)over lag 0-7 d were 1.008[95. confidence interval(CI)1.003-1.012]for *** attributable fraction of CKD hospitalizations due to high temperatures was 5.5.%.Stronger associations were observed among younger patients and those with obstructive *** study also found that exposure to heatwaves was associated with added risk of hospitalizations for CKD compared to non-heatwave days(RR=1.116,95.CI 1.069-1.166)above the effect of daily mean ***:Short-term heat exposure may increase the risk of hospitalization for *** findings provide insights into the health effects of climate change and suggest the necessity of guided protection strategies against the adverse effects of high temperatures.

关键词： Chronic kidney disease Hospitalization Climate change Temperature Time-series study