解析全球气候变化背景下的极端事件——PGW试验框架新发展（英文）
作者机构：State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Institute of Tibetan Plateau Meteorology China Meteorological Administration Department of Atmospheric Science Yunnan University National Meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration 2035 Future Laboratory PIESAT Information Technology Co. Ltd.
出 版 物：《Science Bulletin》 (科学通报(英文版))
年 卷 期：2024年第2期
页 面：237-247页
核心收录：
学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学]
基 金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42225505) the Beijing Nova Program (Z211100002121100) the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2021YFC3000805) the National Natural Science Foundation of China (U2142204) the Science & Technology Development Fund of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS) (2022KJ007)
摘 要：Understanding the responses of precipitation extremes to global climate change remains limited owing to their poor representations in models and complicated interactions with multi-scale systems. Here we take the record-breaking precipitation over China in 2021 as an example, and study its changes under three different climate scenarios through a developed pseudo-global-warming(PGW) experimental framework with 60–3 km variable-resolution global ensemble modeling. Compared to the present climate, the precipitation extreme under a warmer(cooler) climate increased(decreased) in intensity, coverage, and total amount at a range of 24.3%–37.8%(18.7%–56.1%). With the help of the proposed PGW experimental framework, we further reveal the impacts of the multi-scale system interactions in climate change on the precipitation extreme. Under the warmer climate, large-scale water vapor transport converged from double typhoons and the subtropical high marched into central China, enhancing the convective energy and instability on the leading edge of the transport belt. As a result, the mesoscale convective system(MCS) that directly contributed to the precipitation extreme became stronger than that in the present climate. On the contrary, the cooler climate displayed opposite changing characteristics relative to the warmer climate, ranging from the large-scale systems to local environments and to the MCS. In summary, our study provides a promising approach to scientifically assess the response of precipitation extremes to climate change, making it feasible to perform ensemble simulations while investigating the multi-scale system interactions over the globe.
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