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Quantifying major sources of uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on wheat grain yield in dryland environments

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Journal of Arid Land 2023年第5期15卷 545-561页

作者： Reza DEIHIMFARD Sajjad RAHIMI-MOGHADDAM Farshid JAVANSHIR Alireza PAZOKI Department of Agroecology Environmental Sciences Research InstituteShahid Beheshti UniversityTehran 19839–69411Iran Department of Production Engineering and Plant Genetics Faculty of Agriculture and Natural ResourcesLorestan UniversityKhorramabad 68151–44316Iran Department of Agrotechnology Yadegar-e-Imam Khomeini(RAH)Shahre Rey BranchIslamic Azad UniversityTehran 18151–63111Iran

Modelling the impact of climate change on cropping systems is crucial to support policy-making for farmers and ***,there exists inherent uncertainty in such *** Circulation Models(GCMs)and future climate change scenarios(different Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs)in different future time periods)are among the major sources of uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on crop grain *** study quantified the different sources of uncertainty associated with future climate change impact on wheat grain yield in dryland environments(Shiraz,Hamedan,Sanandaj,Kermanshah and Khorramabad)in eastern and southern *** five representative locations can be categorized into three climate classes:arid cold(Shiraz),semi-arid cold(Hamedan and Sanandaj)and semi-arid cool(Kermanshah and Khorramabad).Accordingly,the downscaled daily outputs of 29 GCMs under two RCPs(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)in the near future(2030s),middle future(2050s)and far future(2080s)were used as inputs for the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator(APSIM)-wheat *** of variance(ANOVA)was employed to quantify the sources of uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on wheat grain *** from 1980 to 2009 were regarded as the baseline *** projection results indicated that wheat grain yield was expected to increase by 12.30%,17.10%,and 17.70%in the near future(2030s),middle future(2050s)and far future(2080s),*** increases differed under different RCPs in different future time periods,ranging from 11.70%(under RCP4.5 in the 2030s)to 20.20%(under RCP8.5 in the 2080s)by averaging all GCMs and locations,implying that future wheat grain yield depended largely upon the rising CO2 *** results revealed that more than 97.22% of the variance in future wheat grain yield was explained by locations,followed by scenarios,GCMs,and their ***,at the semi-arid climate locations(Hamedan,S

关键词： wheat grain yield climate change Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator(APSIM)-wheat model General Circulation Models(GCMs) arid climate semi-arid climate Iran

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