Quantifying major sources of uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on wheat grain yield in dryland environments

作     者：Reza DEIHIMFARD Sajjad RAHIMI-MOGHADDAM Farshid JAVANSHIR Alireza PAZOKI Reza DEIHIMFARD;Sajjad RAHIMI-MOGHADDAM;Farshid JAVANSHIR;Alireza PAZOKI

作者机构：Department of AgroecologyEnvironmental Sciences Research InstituteShahid Beheshti UniversityTehran 19839–69411Iran Department of Production Engineering and Plant GeneticsFaculty of Agriculture and Natural ResourcesLorestan UniversityKhorramabad 68151–44316Iran Department of AgrotechnologyYadegar-e-Imam Khomeini(RAH)Shahre Rey BranchIslamic Azad UniversityTehran 18151–63111Iran 

出 版 物：《Journal of Arid Land》 (干旱区科学（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2023年第15卷第5期

页      面：545-561页

核心收录：

学科分类：090101[农学-作物栽培学与耕作学] 09[农学] 0901[农学-作物学] 

基　　金：funded by the Deputy of Research Affairs  Lorestan University  Iran (Contract No. 1400-6-02-518-1402) 

主　　题：wheat grain yield climate change Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator(APSIM)-wheat model General Circulation Models(GCMs) arid climate semi-arid climate Iran 

摘      要：Modelling the impact of climate change on cropping systems is crucial to support policy-making for farmers and ***,there exists inherent uncertainty in such *** Circulation Models(GCMs)and future climate change scenarios(different Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs)in different future time periods)are among the major sources of uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on crop grain *** study quantified the different sources of uncertainty associated with future climate change impact on wheat grain yield in dryland environments(Shiraz,Hamedan,Sanandaj,Kermanshah and Khorramabad)in eastern and southern *** five representative locations can be categorized into three climate classes:arid cold(Shiraz),semi-arid cold(Hamedan and Sanandaj)and semi-arid cool(Kermanshah and Khorramabad).Accordingly,the downscaled daily outputs of 29 GCMs under two RCPs(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)in the near future(2030s),middle future(2050s)and far future(2080s)were used as inputs for the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator(APSIM)-wheat *** of variance(ANOVA)was employed to quantify the sources of uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on wheat grain *** from 1980 to 2009 were regarded as the baseline *** projection results indicated that wheat grain yield was expected to increase by 12.30%,17.10%,and 17.70%in the near future(2030s),middle future(2050s)and far future(2080s),*** increases differed under different RCPs in different future time periods,ranging from 11.70%(under RCP4.5 in the 2030s)to 20.20%(under RCP8.5 in the 2080s)by averaging all GCMs and locations,implying that future wheat grain yield depended largely upon the rising CO2 *** results revealed that more than 97.22% of the variance in future wheat grain yield was explained by locations,followed by scenarios,GCMs,and their ***,at the semi-arid climate locations(Hamedan,S