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Projection of hydrothermal condition in Central Asia under four SSP-RCP scenarios

Journal of Arid Land 2022年第5期14卷 521-536页

作者： YAO Linlin ZHOU Hongfei YAN Yingjie LI Lanhai SU Yuan State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Fukang National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station for Desert Ecosystems Chinese Academy of SciencesFukang 831505China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Ili Station for watershed Ecosystem Research Chinese Academy of SciencesXinyuan 835800China CAS Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia Urumqi 830011China Xinjiang Key Laboratory of water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone Urumqi 830011China

Hydrothermal condition is mismatched in arid and semi-arid regions,particularly in Central Asia(including Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,Uzbekistan,and Turkmenistan),resulting many environmental *** this study,we projected hydrothermal condition in Central Asia based on bias-corrected multi-model ensembles(MMEs)from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway(SSP-RCP)scenarios(SSP126(SSP1-RCP2.6),SSP245(SSP2-RCP4.5),SSP460(SSP4-RCP6.0),and SSP585(SSP5-RCP8.5))during *** bias correction and spatial disaggregation,water-thermal product index,and sensitivity analysis were used in this *** results showed that the hydrothermal condition is mismatched in the central and southern deserts,whereas the region of Pamir Mountains and Tianshan Mountains as well as the northern plains of Kazakhstan showed a matched hydrothermal *** with the historical period,the matched degree of hydrothermal condition improves during 2046-2075,but degenerates during 2015-2044 and *** change of hydrothermal condition is sensitive to precipitation in the northern regions and the maximum temperatures in the southern *** result suggests that the optimal scenario in Central Asia is SSP126 scenario,while SSP585 scenario brings further hydrothermal *** study provides scientific information for the development and sustainable utilization of hydrothermal resources in arid and semi-arid regions under climate change.

关键词： hydrothermal condition water-thermal product index bias correction and spatial disaggregation SSP-RCP scenarios Central Asia

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