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Impact of EnKF assimilating Himawari-8 all-sky infrared radiance on the forecasting of a warm-sector rainstorm event

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第10期67卷 3110-3127页

作者： Shanshan LOU Lei ZHU Xuexing QIU Guangzhou CHEN Song YUAN Shengnan ZHOU Anhui Meteorological Observatory Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Science and Satellite Remote Sensing Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education (KLME) Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD) Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC) Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Huaihe River Basin Meteorological Center Shouxian National Climatology Observatory Huaihe River Basin Typical Farm Eco-Meteorological Experiment Field of CMA Shouxian National Comprehensive Meteorological Observation Special Experimental Outfield

warm-sector rainstorms are highly localized events, with weather systems and triggering mechanisms are not obvious,leading to limited forecasting capabilities in numerical models. Based on the ensemble Kalman filter(PSU-En KF) assimilation system and the regional mesoscale model WRF, this study conducted a simulation experiment assimilating all-sky infrared(IR)radiance for a warm-sector rainstorm in East China and investigated the positive impact of assimilating the Himawari-8 moisture channel all-sky IR radiance on the forecast of the rainstorm. Results indicate that hourly cycling assimilation of all-sky IR radiance can significantly improve the forecast accuracy of this warm-sector rainstorm. There is a notable increase in the Threat Score(TS), with the simulated location and intensity of the 3-hour precipitation aligning more closely with observations. These improvements result from the assimilation of cloud-affected radiance, which introduces more mesoscale convective information into the model's initial fields. The adjustments include enhancements to the moisture field, such as increased humidity and moisture transport, and modifications to the wind field, including the intrusion of mid-level cold air and the strengthening of lowlevel convergent shear. These factors are critical in improving the forecast of this warm-sector rainstorm event.

关键词： Ensemble Kalman filter WRF model Himawari-8 All-sky radiance warm-sector rainstorm

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ANALYSIS OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH A warm-sector rainstorm EVENT OVER SOUTH CHINA

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2011年第1期17卷 1-10页

作者：张晓美蒙伟光张艳霞梁建茵 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences CMABeijing 100081 China Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology CMA

With multiple meteorological data, including precipitation from automatic weather stations, integrated satellite-based precipitation (CMORPH), brightness temperature (TBB), radar echoes and NCEP reanalysis, a rainstorm event, which occurred on May 26, 2007 over South China, is analyzed with the focus on the evolution characteristics of associated mesoscale-β convective systems (Mβcss). Results are shown as follows. (1) The rainstorm presents itself as a typical warm-sector event, for it occurs within a surface inverted trough and on the left side of a southwesterly low-level jet (LLJ), which shows no obvious features of baroclinicity. (2) The heavy rainfall event is directly related to at least three bodies of Mβcss with peak precipitation corresponding well to their mature stages. (3) The Mβcss manifest a backward propagation, which is marked with a new form of downstream convection different from the more usual type of forward propagation over South China, i.e., new convective systems mainly form at the rear part of older Mβcss. (4) rainstorm-causing Mβcss form near the convergence region on the left side of an 850-hPa southwesterly LLJ, over which there are dominantly divergent air flows at 200 hPa. Different from the typical flow pattern of outward divergence off the east side of South Asia High, which is usually found to be over zones of heavy rains during the annually first rainy season of South China, this warm-sector heavy rain is below the divergence region formed between the easterly and southerly flows west of the South Asian High that is moving out to sea. (5) The LLJ transports abundant amount of warm and moist air to the heavy rainfall area, providing advantageous conditions for highly unstable energy to generate and store at middle and high levels, where corresponding low-level warm advection may be playing a more direct role in the development of Mβcss. As a triggering mechanism for organized convective systems, the effect of low-level warm advection

关键词： mesoscale analysis warm-sector rainstorm South China rainstorm Mesoscale β

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Forecast Error and Predictability for the warm-sector and the Frontal rainstorm in South China

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2023年第1期29卷 128-141页

作者：孙璐王秋萍陈思远高彦青张旭鹏时洋马旭林 Meteorological Institute of Shaanxi Province Xi'an 710016 China Key Laboratory of Eco-Environment and Meteorology for the Qinling Mountains and Loess Plateau Shaanxi Meteorological BureauXi'an 710014 China Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China Qingdao Air Traffic Management Station of CAAC QingdaoShandong 266108 China Shanghai Ecological Forecasting and Remote Sensing Center Shanghai 200030 China China Institute for Radiation Protection Taiyuan 030006 China Guangdong Meteorological Observatory Guangzhou 510640 China

In south China, warm-sector rainstorms are significantly different from the traditional frontal rainstorms due to complex mechanism, which brings great challenges to their forecast. In this study, based on ensemble forecasting, the high-resolution mesoscale numerical forecast model WRF was used to investigate the effect of initial errors on a warmsector rainstorm and a frontal rainstorm under the same circulation in south China, respectively. We analyzed the sensitivity of forecast errors to the initial errors and their evolution characteristics for the warm-sector and the frontal rainstorm. Additionally, the difference of the predictability was compared via adjusting the initial values of the GOOD member and the BAD member. Compared with the frontal rainstorm, the warm-sector rainstorm was more sensitive to initial error, which increased faster in the warm-sector. Furthermore, the magnitude of error in the warm-sector rainstorm was obviously larger than that of the frontal rainstorm, while the spatial scale of the error was smaller. Similarly, both types of the rainstorm were limited by practical predictability and inherent predictability, while the nonlinear increase characteristics occurred to be more distinct in the warm-sector rainstorm, resulting in the lower inherent *** comparison between the warm-sector rainstorm and the frontal rainstorm revealed that the forecast field was closer to the real situation derived from more accurate initial errors, but only the increase rate in the frontal rainstorm was restrained evidently.

关键词： warm-sector rainstorm frontal rainstorm error evolution predictability

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