Forecast Error and Predictability for the Warm-sector and the Frontal Rainstorm in South China

作     者：孙璐 王秋萍 陈思远 高彦青 张旭鹏 时洋 马旭林 SUN Lu;WANG Qiu-ping;CHEN Si-yuan;GAO Yan-qing;ZHANG Xu-peng;SHI Yang;MA Xu-lin

作者机构：Meteorological Institute of Shaanxi ProvinceXi'an 710016 China Key Laboratory of Eco-Environment and Meteorology for the Qinling Mountains and Loess PlateauShaanxi Meteorological BureauXi'an 710014 China Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044 China Qingdao Air Traffic Management Station of CAACQingdaoShandong 266108 China Shanghai Ecological Forecasting and Remote Sensing CenterShanghai 200030 China China Institute for Radiation ProtectionTaiyuan 030006 China Guangdong Meteorological ObservatoryGuangzhou 510640 China 

出 版 物：《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 (热带气象学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2023年第29卷第1期

页      面：128-141页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFC1502000) 

主　　题：warm-sector rainstorm frontal rainstorm error evolution predictability 

摘      要：In south China, warm-sector rainstorms are significantly different from the traditional frontal rainstorms due to complex mechanism, which brings great challenges to their forecast. In this study, based on ensemble forecasting, the high-resolution mesoscale numerical forecast model WRF was used to investigate the effect of initial errors on a warmsector rainstorm and a frontal rainstorm under the same circulation in south China, respectively. We analyzed the sensitivity of forecast errors to the initial errors and their evolution characteristics for the warm-sector and the frontal rainstorm. Additionally, the difference of the predictability was compared via adjusting the initial values of the GOOD member and the BAD member. Compared with the frontal rainstorm, the warm-sector rainstorm was more sensitive to initial error, which increased faster in the warm-sector. Furthermore, the magnitude of error in the warm-sector rainstorm was obviously larger than that of the frontal rainstorm, while the spatial scale of the error was smaller. Similarly, both types of the rainstorm were limited by practical predictability and inherent predictability, while the nonlinear increase characteristics occurred to be more distinct in the warm-sector rainstorm, resulting in the lower inherent *** comparison between the warm-sector rainstorm and the frontal rainstorm revealed that the forecast field was closer to the real situation derived from more accurate initial errors, but only the increase rate in the frontal rainstorm was restrained evidently.