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Understanding of the Effect of Climate Change on tropical cyclone Intensity:A Review

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第2期39卷 205-221页

作者： Liguang WU Haikun ZHAO Chao WANG Jian CAO Jia LIANG Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Innovation Center of Ocean and Atmosphere System Zhuhai Fudan Innovation Research InstituteZhuhai 518057China

The effect of climate change on tropical cyclone intensity has been an important scientific issue for a few decades.Although theory and modeling suggest the intensification of tropical cyclones in a warming climate,there are uncertainties in the assessed and projected responses of tropical cyclone intensity to climate change.While a few comprehensive reviews have already provided an assessment of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclone activity including tropical cyclone intensity,this review focuses mainly on the understanding of the effect of climate change on basin-wide tropical cyclone intensity,including indices for basin-wide tropical cyclone intensity,historical datasets used for intensity trend detection,environmental control of tropical cyclone intensity,detection and simulation of tropical cyclone intensity change,and some issues on the assessment of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclone intensity.In addition to the uncertainty in the historical datasets,intertwined natural variabilities,the considerable model bias in the projected large-scale environment,and poorly simulated inner-core structures of tropical cyclones,it is suggested that factors controlling the basin-wide intensity can be different from individual tropical cyclones since the assessment of the effect of climate change treats tropical cyclones in a basin as a whole.

关键词： tropical cyclone climate change intensity change

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A Recombination Clustering Technique for Forecasting of tropical cyclone Tracks Based on the CMA-TRAMS Ensemble Prediction System

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2023年第6期37卷 812-828页

作者： Jinqing LIU Xubin ZHANG Zejun DAI Hui ZHOU Zhaoli YANG Hunan Meteorological Observatory/Hunan Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction Hunan Meteorological BureauChangsha410118China Guangzhou Institute of tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction China Meteorological AdministrationGuangzhou510641China

Despite marked improvements in tropical cyclone(TC) track ensemble forecasting,forecasters still have difficulty in making quick decisions when facing multiple potential predictions,so it is demanding to develop post-processing techniques reducing the uncertainty in TC track forecasts,and one of such techniques is the cluster-based methods.To improve the effect and efficiency of the previous cluster-based methods,this study adopts recombination clustering(RC) by optimizing the use of limited TC variables and constructing better features that can accurately capture the good TC track forecasts from the ensemble prediction system(EPS) of the China Meteorological Administration tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS).The RC technique is further optimized by constraining the number of clusters using the absolute track bias between the ensemble mean(EM) and ensemble spread(ES).Finally,the RC-based deterministic and weighted probabilistic forecasts are compared with the TC track forecasts from traditional methods.It is found that(1) for deterministic TC track forecasts,the RC-based TC track forecasts outperform all other methods at 12–72-h lead times;compared with the skillful EM(118.6 km),the improvements introduced by the use of RC reach up to 10.8%(8.1 km),10.2%(13.7 km),and 8.7%(20.5 km) at forecast times of 24,48,and 72 h,respectively.(2) For probabilistic TC track forecasts,RC yields significantly more accurate and discriminative forecasts than traditional equal-weight track forecasts,by increasing the weight of the best cluster,with a decrease of 4.1% in brier score(BS) and an increase of 1.4% in area under the relative operating characteristic curve(AUC).(3) In particular,for cases with recurved tracks,such as typhoons Saudel(2017) and Bavi(2008),RC significantly reduces track errors relative to EM by 56.0%(125.5 km) and 77.7%(192.2 km),respectively.Our results demonstrate that the RC technique not only improves TC track forecasts but also helps to unravel skillful ensemble members,

关键词： tropical cyclone recombination clustering cluster number probability ensemble prediction system(EPS) China Meteorological Administration tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS)

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An Empirical Model of tropical cyclone Intensity Forecast in the Western North Pacific

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2022年第5期36卷 691-702页

作者： Chen MA Tim LI Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory Jiangsu Meteorological BureauNanjing 210019China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)NanjingUniversityof Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversityofHawaiiHI96822USA Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationNanjing 210019China

The relative impact of environmental parameters on tropical cyclone(TC) intensification rate(IR) was investigated through a box difference index(BDI) method, using TC best track data from Joint Typhoon Warning Center and environmental fields from the NCEP final analysis data over the western North Pacific(WNP) during 2000–2018.There are total 6307 TC samples with a 6-h interval, of which about 14% belong to rapid intensification(RI) category. The analysis shows that RI occurs more frequently with higher environmental sea surface temperature, higher oceanic heat content, and lower upper-tropospheric temperature. A moderate easterly shear is more favorable for TC intensification. TC intensification happens mostly equatorward of 20°N while TC weakening happens mostly when TCs are located in the northwest of the basin. Mid-tropospheric relative humidity and vertical velocity are good indicators separating the intensification and non-intensification groups. A statistical model for TC intensity prediction was constructed based on six environmental predictors, with or without initial TC intensity. Both models are skillful based on Brier skill score(BSS) relative to climatology and in comparison with other statistical models, for both a training period(2000–2018) and an independent forecast period(2019–2020).

关键词： tropical cyclone rapid intensification prediction model

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Early-Holocene Paleo-tropical cyclone Activity Inferred from a Sedimentary Sequence in South Yellow Sea,East Asia

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Journal of Earth Science 2022年第3期33卷 789-801页

作者： Geng Liu Xibin Han Yanping Chen Jun Li Lehui Song Xin Zhou Bangqi Hu Liang Yi MNR Key Laboratory of Submarine Geosciences Second Institute of OceanographyMinistry of Natural ResourcesHangzhou 310012China Zhejiang Academy of Marine Sciences Second Institute of OceanographyMinistry of Natural ResourcesHangzhou 310012China MNR Key Laboratory of Marine Hydrocarbon Resources and Environmental Geology Qingdao Institute of Marine GeologyChina Geological SurveyQingdao 266071China School of Earth and Space Sciences University of Science and Technology of ChinaHefei 230026China Laboratory for Marine Mineral Resources Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao 266071China State Key Laboratory of Marine Geology Tongji UniversityShanghai 200092China Wuhan Center China Geological SurveyWuhan 430205China

Although tropical cyclones play a critical role in global climate changes,their long-term variations in the past are not well documented.In this article,a sediment core from the South Yellow Sea was studied in order to reveal the influence of tropical cyclones on depositional processes.Integrating the results of radiocarbon dating and sediment grain-size analysis,we show that the studied sequence was deposited during the Holocene and the sedimentary dynamics were stable and at a relatively low level,with a median grain-size range of 5.3-8.7μm.It is found that coarse particles were likely transported by highly dynamic depositional events.Based on the findings,a record of paleo-tropical cyclones was derived for the Early Holocene,and several intervals with a reduced influence of tropical cyclones were identified.In addition,it reveals a good agreement between the grain-size results and the changes in solar activity,monsoonal intensity,and the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation.Overall,it can be concluded that the influence of tropical cyclones on the sedimentary evolution of the muddy zone of the South Yellow Sea was substantial during the Early Holocene on centennial timescales,and that solar maxima may control the intensity of tropical cyclones via strengthening the walker circulation over the tropical Pacific.

关键词： the Yellow Sea Early Holocene tropical cyclone sedimentary process sediment grain size solar activity

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Impact of tropical cyclone Avoidance on Fishing Vessel Activity over Coastal China Based on Automatic Identification System Data during 2013–2018

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2022年第4期13卷 561-576页

作者： Weihua Fang Cunmin Guo Yinan Han Rongfa Qing Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters Ministry of EducationBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory Guangzhou 511458China Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of EducationBeijing 100875China

tropical cyclones(TCs)may cause severe impacts on the activities of coastal fishing vessels.Due to the unavailability or unacceptability of detailed Automatic Identification System(AIS)data that are capable of differentiating fishing activity from navigation,as well as the lack of detailed models and observation data of TC winds,few studies have provided quantitative and reliable assessment of the impacts of TCs on fishing activities.In this study,we modeled snapshots for the TC winds of 52 TCs over the Northwest Pacific(NWP)basin from 2013 to 2018,as well as daily fishing hours and daily hours of presence(hereafter“vessel hours”)of fishing vessels.Based on these data,the spatiotemporal pattern of fishing vessel activity over off-shore China was first analyzed and mapped.Then,a TC wind hazard index and absolute and relative impact indices were proposed to assess the impact of the 52 TCs on fishing and vessel hours.Their relationship was then fitted with the cumulative distribution function(CDF)of the log-normal distribution.The results show that in the 2013-2018 period,the most active fishing areas were located in the South China Sea.In each instance,an increase was first observed in the initial several years;then a decrease followed in the yearly total fishing hours per vessel in the remaining years.The relative impact index was significantly correlated to the TC wind hazard index proposed in this study.Based on the quantitative relationship between the specified TC hazard index and the impact indices,it is possible to implement a pre-cyclone rapid loss assessment due to TC avoidance in the future.

关键词： Fishing hours Fishing moratorium Impact index tropical cyclone Vessel hours

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Wave hindcast under tropical cyclone conditions in the South China Sea:sensitivity to wind fields

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2023年第10期42卷 36-53页

作者： Liqun Jia Shimei Wu Bo Han Shuqun Cai Renhao Wu School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhai 519082China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China State Key Laboratory of tropical Oceanography South China Sea Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510301China

Reliable wave information is critical for marine engineering.Numerical wave models are useful tools to obtain wave information with continuous spatiotemporal distributions.However,the accuracy of model results highly depends on the quality of wind forcing.In this study,we utilize observations from five buoys deployed in the northern South China Sea from August to September 2017.Notably,these buoys successfully recorded wind field and wave information during the passage of five tropical cyclones of different intensities without sustaining any damage.Based on these unique observations,we evaluated the quality of four widely used wind products,namely CFSv2,ERA5,CCMP,and ERAI.Our analysis showed that in the northern South China Sea,ERA5 performed best compared to buoy observations,especially in terms of maximum wind speed values at 10 m height(U10),extreme U10 occurrence time,and overall statistical indicators.CFSv2 tended to overestimate non-extreme U10 values.CCMP showed favorable statistical performance at only three of the five buoys,but underestimated extreme U10 values at all buoys.ERAI had the worst performance under both normal and tropical cyclone conditions.In terms of wave hindcast accuracy,ERA5 outperformed the other reanalysis products,with CFSv2 and CCMP following closely.ERAI showed poor performance especially in the upper significant wave heights.Furthermore,we found that the wave hindcasts did not improve with increasing spatiotemporal resolution,with spatial resolution up to 0.5°.These findings would help in improving wave hindcasts under extreme conditions.

关键词： wave hindcast SWAN tropical cyclone South China Sea

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Projection of the Future Changes in tropical cyclone Activity Affecting East Asia over the Western North Pacific Based on Multi-RegCM4 Simulations

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第2期39卷 284-303页

作者： Jie WU Xuejie GAO Yingmo ZHU Ying SHI Filippo GIORGI School of Geography and Environmental Engineering Gannan Normal UniversityGanzhou 341000China Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Department of Atmospheric Sciences Yunnan UniversityKunming 650504China National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Trieste 34100Italy

Future changes in tropical cyclone(TC)activity over the western North Pacific(WNP)under the representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 are investigated based on a set of 21 st century climate change simulations over East Asia with the regional climate model RegCM4 driven by five global models.The RegCM4 reproduces the major features of the observed TC activity over the region in the present-day period of 1986-2005,although with the underestimation of the number of TC genesis and intensity.A low number of TCs making landfall over China is also simulated.By the end of the 21st century(2079-98),the annual mean frequency of TC genesis and occurrence is projected to increase over the WNP by16%and 10%,respectively.The increase in frequency of TC occurrence is in good agreement among the simulations,with the largest increase over the ocean surrounding Taiwan Island and to the south of Japan.The TCs tend to be stronger in the future compared to the present-day period of 1986-2005,with a large increase in the frequency of strong TCs.In addition,more TCs landings are projected over most of the China coast,with an increase of~18%over the whole Chinese territory.

关键词： regional climate model RegCM4 tropical cyclone western North Pacific

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Reexamination of the Relationship between tropical cyclone Size and Intensity over the Western North Pacific

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第11期39卷 1956-1968页

作者： Kexin CHEN Guanghua CHEN Donglei SHI Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China

This study reexamines the correlation between the size and intensity of tropical cyclones(TCs) over the western North Pacific from the perspective of individual TCs, rather than the previous large-sample framework mixing up all TC records.Statistics show that the positive size-intensity correlation based on individual TCs is relatively high. However, this correlation is obscured by mixing large samples. The weakened correlation based on all TC records is primarily due to the diversity in the size change relative to the same intensity change among TCs, which can be quantitatively measured by the linear regression coefficient(RC) of size against intensity. To further explore the factors that cause the variability in RCs that weakens the size-intensity correlation when considering all TC records, the TCs from 2001 to 2020 are classified into two groups according to their RC magnitudes, within which the high-RC TCs have a larger size expansion than the low-RC TCs given the same intensity change. Two key mechanisms responsible for the RC differences are proposed. First, the highRC TCs are generally located at higher latitudes than the low-RC TCs, resulting in higher planetary vorticity and thus higher planetary angular momentum import at low levels. Second, the high-RC TCs are susceptible to stronger environmental vertical wind shear, leading to more prolific outer convection than the low-RC TCs. The positive feedback between outer diabatic heating and boundary layer inflow favors the inward import of absolute angular momentum in the outer region, thereby contributing to a larger size expansion in the high-RC TCs.

关键词： tropical cyclone size and intensity composite analysis absolute angular momentum flux budget

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Research advances on internal processes affecting tropical cyclone intensity change from 2018–2022

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tropical cyclone Research and Review 2023年第1期12卷 10-29页

作者： Xiaomin Chen Christopher M.Rozoff Robert F.Rogers Kristen L.Corbosiero Dandan Tao Jian-Feng Gu Falko Judt Eric A.Hendricks Yuqing Wang Michael M.Bell Daniel P.Stern Kate D.Musgrave John A.Knaff John Kaplan NOAA/OAR/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory MiamiUSA University of Alabama in Huntsville HuntsvilleUSA National Center for Atmospheric Research BoulderUSA University at Albany/State University of New York AlbanyUSA University of Bergen BergenNorway Nanjing University NanjingChina University of Reading ReadingUK University of Hawaii at Manoa HonoluluUSA Colorado State University Fort CollinsUSA University Corporation for Atmospheric Research MontereyUSA NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research Fort CollinsUSA Department of Atmospheric and Earth Science University of Alabama in HuntsvilleHuntsvilleUSA

This contribution summarizes the significant progress in a variety of topic areas related to internal tropical cyclone(TC)intensity change processes over 2018–2022 from the WMO Tenth International Workshop on tropical cyclones(IWTC-10).These topic areas include surface and boundary layer processes;TC internal structure and microphysical processes;and,radiation interactions with TCs.Recent studies better frame the uncertainty in the surface drag and enthalpy coefficients at high wind speeds.These parameters greatly impact TC intensity and it is therefore important that more direct measurements of these boundary layer parameters are made.Particularly significant scientific strides have been made in TC boundary layers.These advancements have been achieved through improved coupled models,large-eddy simulations,theoretical advance-ments,and detailed observations.It is now clear that the research field needs to better represent the eddy viscosity throughout the depth of the boundary layer.Furthermore,detailed study of coherent structures in TC boundary layers will likely be a propitious direction for the research community.Meanwhile,in-depth observational field campaigns and assiduous data analysis have made significant headway into verifying theory and modeling studies of intensification processes related to TC vortex alignment,efficient latent heating distributions,and overall 3D structure.Substantial efforts have also been made to better understand the intricate roles radiative processes play in TC evolution and intensity change.Finally,some promising progress has been made in the development of time-dependent theories of TC intensification and the predictability of internal TC intensity change.Overall,there have been well-earned gains in the understanding of intensity change processes intrinsic to the TC system,but the journey is not complete.This paper highlights some of the most relevant and important research areas that are still shedding new light into internal factors governing TC intensity change.

关键词： tropical cyclone Intensity Internal dynamics Boundary-layer processes Observations Predictability

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Influence of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau snow cover on interannual variability of Western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks

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Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2023年第6期41卷 2060-2076页

作者： Zhaohua WANG Dongliang ZHAO Kejian WU Lian XIE Ocean University of China Qingdao 266100China Department of Marine Earth and Atmospheric SciencesNorth Carolina State UniversityBox 8208RaleighNC 27695USA

Track density function(TDF)was computed for all Western North Pacific tropical cyclones(WNP TCs)tracks from 1950 to 2018,and the TDFs were further investigated using principal component analysis(PCA)to analyze their inter-annual spatial and temporal variability.Then,the relationships between each empirical orthogonal function(EOF)mode and the typhoon count,typhoon landfall count,track pattern,and the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau snow cover(QXPSC)were examined,and the possible physical mechanisms implied by the statistical relationship were explored.The results show the QXPSC significantly affected the surface-atmosphere heat exchange through snow cover(SC)level,then changed the East Asian summer monsoon regional circulation pattern,influenced the subtropical high-pressure system strength and location,and ultimately affected the WNP TCs track patterns and thus changed their landfall locations.

关键词： tropical cyclone Qinghai-Xizang Plateau snow cover track pattern landfall location

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