Projection of the Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity Affecting East Asia over the Western North Pacific Based on Multi-RegCM4 Simulations

作     者：Jie WU Xuejie GAO Yingmo ZHU Ying SHI Filippo GIORGI Jie WU;Xuejie GAO;Yingmo ZHU;Ying SHI;Filippo GIORGI

作者机构：School of Geography and Environmental EngineeringGannan Normal UniversityGanzhou 341000China Climate Change Research CenterInstitute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Department of Atmospheric SciencesYunnan UniversityKunming 650504China National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical PhysicsTrieste 34100Italy 

出 版 物：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 (大气科学进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2022年第39卷第2期

页      面：284-303页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0816[工学-测绘科学与技术] 0825[工学-航空宇航科学与技术] 

基　　金：jointly supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA20060401) the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41675103) the Science and Technology Program of Yunnan(Grant No.2018BC007) 

主　　题：regional climate model RegCM4 tropical cyclone western North Pacific 

摘      要：Future changes in tropical cyclone(TC)activity over the western North Pacific(WNP)under the representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 are investigated based on a set of 21 st century climate change simulations over East Asia with the regional climate model RegCM4 driven by five global *** RegCM4 reproduces the major features of the observed TC activity over the region in the present-day period of 1986-2005,although with the underestimation of the number of TC genesis and intensity.A low number of TCs making landfall over China is also *** the end of the 21st century(2079-98),the annual mean frequency of TC genesis and occurrence is projected to increase over the WNP by16%and 10%,*** increase in frequency of TC occurrence is in good agreement among the simulations,with the largest increase over the ocean surrounding Taiwan Island and to the south of *** TCs tend to be stronger in the future compared to the present-day period of 1986-2005,with a large increase in the frequency of strong *** addition,more TCs landings are projected over most of the China coast,with an increase of~18%over the whole Chinese territory.