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SCGM(1,m)_c model with time-lag and its application in deformation analysis

Journal of Central South University of Technology 2001年第1期8卷 40-44页

作者： LI Zhi wei 1, LI Tao 1,ZHU Jian jun 1,WANG Ren qian 2 (1.College of Resources, Environment and Civil Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China 2.Department of Civil Engineering, Huaqiao University, Quanzhou 350029, China) College of Resources Environment and Civil Engineering Central South University Changsha China Department of Civil Engineering Huaqiao University Quanzhou China

Originated in the early 1990s, SCGM(1, m ) c model has enjoyed widespread application in the fields of urban planning, society economy prediction and modal control in recent years. However, none of these applications have taken account of time lag effects in the modeling process. Aiming at overcoming the defect, the authors introduced time lag items into SCGM(1, m ) c model and developed a SCGM(1, m ) c model with time lag, then discusses in detail some principal problems in the model, such as parameters estimation, model verifying, model prediction, etc. The model was used on a real slope monitoring project and compared with the conventional SCGM(1, m ) c model. The results show an improvement of average models precision from 1.321 to 0.238 and total average of relative prediction errors from 12.41% to 7.98% when the modeling data length ranges from 29 to 48 in the slope monitoring case.

关键词： grey system SCGM(1,m)c time-lag deformation analysis

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KEY AREAS OF AIR-SEA INTERACTION IN GLOBAL OCEANS AND STUDY OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FEATURES

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2001年第2期7卷 175-186页

作者：张卫青钱永甫 Department of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University

Seven key areas of air-sea interaction in the global oceans are determined by comprehensive analysis of the global data of monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST), surface wind, temperature, humidity, sea surface sensible heat and latent heat fluxes. The time-lag correlation between SST and each atmospheric element in each key area are focally analyzed to expose the same and the different features of air-sea interaction in different key areas. The results show that the air-sea thermal interaction is strong in each area, SST, tem-perature and humidity can be fairly replaced with one another, particularly in the central eastern Pacific and the south India Ocean. The dynamic effect on SST is different in different areas and in the central western Pacific such effect is more important. The correlation between sensible heat, latent heat and SST is more significant in the eastern Pacific, the western Pacific and the two major monsoon areas — the northwestern Pacific and the south India Ocean. By analyzing the sustainable correlation probability of SST and every atmospheric element in each key area, we further know that the anomalies of which element, in which area and in which period are well sustained or easily destroyed. This is beneficial not only to prediction, but also to discussion of the physical mechanism of air-sea interaction.

关键词： air-sea interaction time-lag correlation persistence of anomaly

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