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Case Study of a short-term Wave Energy forecasting Scheme:North Indian Ocean

Journal of Ocean University of China 2021年第3期20卷 463-477页

作者： ZHENG Chongwei SONG Hui Dalian Naval Academy Dalian 116018China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physicsthe Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China

short-term forecasts of wave energy play a key role in the daily operation,maintenance planning,and electrical grid operation of power *** this study,we propose a short-term wave energy forecast scheme and use the North Indian Ocean(NIO)as a case *** with the traditional forecast scheme,our proposed scheme considers more forecast *** addition to the traditional short-term forecast factors related to wave energy(wave power,significant wave height(SWH),wave period),our scheme emphasizes the forecast of a series of key factors that are closely related to the effectiveness of the energy output,capture efficiency,and conversion *** factors include the available rate,total storage,effective storage,co-occurrence of wave power-wave direction,co-occurrence of the SWH-wave period,and the wave energy at key *** the regional nesting of nu-merical simulations of wave energy in the NIO,the selection of the southern boundary is found to have a significant impact on the simulation precision,especially during periods of strong swell processes of the South Indian Ocean(SIO)*** tropical cyclone‘VARDAH’in the NIO,as compared with the simulation precision obtained with no expansion of the southern boundary(scheme-1),when the southern boundary is extended to the tropical SIO(scheme-2),the improvement in simulation precision is significant,with an obvious increase in the correlation coefficient and decrease in *** addition,the improvement is much more significant when the southern boundary extends to the SIO westerly(scheme-3).In the case of strong swell processes generated by the SIO westerly,the improvement obtained by scheme-3 is even more significant.

关键词： wave energy short-term forecast regional nesting boundary condition

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Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Pathogenesis of COVID-19 Pandemic Spreadin Saudi Arabia

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Computers, Materials & Continua 2021年第1期66卷 805-825页

作者： Sunil Kumar Sharma Shivam Bhardwaj Rashmi Bhardwaj Majed Alowaidi College of Computer and Information Sciences Majmaah UniversityMajmaah11952Saudi Arabia Maharaja Agrasen Institute of Technology Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha UniversityDelhi110086India Non-Linear Dynamics Research Laboratory GGS Indraprastha UniversityDelhi110078India

This article discusses short–term forecasting of the novel Corona Virus(COVID-19)data for infected and recovered cases using the ARIMA method for Saudi *** COVID-19 data was obtained from the Worldometer and MOH(Ministry of Health,Saudi Arabia).The data was analyzed for the period from March 2,2020(the first case reported)to June 15,*** ARIMA(2,1,0),we obtained the short forecast up to July 02,*** statistical parameters were tested for the goodness of fit to evaluate the forecasting *** results show that ARIMA(2,1,0)gave a better forecast for the data *** 19 data followed quadratic behavior,and in the long run,it spreads with a high *** is concluded that COVID-19 will follow secondary shock waves,and it is strongly advisable to maintain social distancing with all safety measures as the pandemic situation is not in control.

关键词： COVID-19 short-term forecast ARIMA GIS

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Propagation analysis and prediction of the COVID-19

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2020年第1期5卷 282-292页

作者： Lixiang Li Zihang Yang Zhongkai Dang Cui Meng Jingze Huang Haotian Meng Deyu Wang Guanhua Chen Jiaxuan Zhang Haipeng Peng Yiming Shao Information Security Center State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching TechnologyBeijing University of Posts and TelecommunicationsBeijing100876China State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention(China CDC)Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious DiseasesBeijingChina

Based on the official data modeling,this paper studies the transmission process of the Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19).The error between the model and the official data curve is quite *** the same time,it realized forward prediction and backward inference of the epidemic situation,and the relevant analysis help relevant countries to make decisions.

关键词： COVID-19 short-term forecast Epidemic control

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short-time forecast Method of Winter Minimum Temperature in the Northern Area of Fujian

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Meteorological and Environmental Research 2011年第5期2卷 3-6页

作者： WEN Gui-fang,HU Xu-mei,WU Hua-qin,ZHANG Xin-hua Wuyishan Meteorological Bureau in Fujian Province,Wuyishan 354300,China

[Objective] The research aimed to study the short-time forecast method of winterminimum temperature in the northern area of Fujian.[Method] By analyzing the variation trends and distribution characteristics of extremely and averageminimum temperatures in northern Fujian in winter during 1969-2008,the relative meteorological factors which affected the low temperature weather in winter were *** influences of relative meteorological factors on winterminimum temperature and the forecast method were summarized by combining with the climate characteristics in northern Fujian.[Result] Winterminimum temperature in Guangze and Pucheng in the north of northern Fujian was the *** second one was in Shaowu,Wuyishan,Jianyang,Songxi and *** temperature in Jian’ou and Shunchang was higher and was the highest in *** temperature mainly depended on the temperature reduction degree from the afternoon to the *** temperature reduction degree varied with the sky condition and cold air *** temperature reduction included the advection,radiation,advection-radiation and non-advection-radiation *** temperature had the different reduction characteristics under the different sky *** forecast ofminimum temperature should be carried out based on the weather ***,the successful forecast key ofminimum temperature was grasping the shift pathway and speed of cold air.[Conclusion] The research provided the theory basis for improving the forecast accuracy of winterminimum temperature.

关键词： Winter Minimum temperature short-term forecast Northern Fujian China

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Early transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in a southern hemisphere setting:Lima-Peru:February 29^(th)-March 30^(th),2020

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2020年第1期5卷 338-345页

作者： César V.Munayco Amna Tariq Richard Rothenberg Gabriela G.Soto-Cabezas Mary F.Reyes Andree Valle Leonardo Rojas-Mezarina César Cabezas Manuel Loayza Gerardo Chowell 无 Centro Nacional de Epidemiología Prevencion y Control de EnfermedadesPeruvian Ministry of HealthLimaPeru Department of Population Health Sciences School of Public HealthGeorgia State UniversityAtlantaGAUSA Instituto Nacional de Salud Peruvian Ministry of HealthLimaPeru Peru COVID-19 working group

The COVID-19 pandemic that emerged in Wuhan China has generated substantial morbidity and mortality impact around the world during the last four *** daily trend in reported cases has been rapidly rising in Latin America since March 2020 with the great majority of the cases reported in Brazil followed by Peru as of April 15th,*** Peru implemented a range of social distancing measures soon after the confirmation of its first case on March 6th,2020,the daily number of new COVID-19 cases continues to accumulate in this *** assessed the early COVID-19 transmission dynamics and the effect of social distancing interventions in Lima,*** estimated the reproduction number,R,during the early transmission phase in Lima from the daily series of imported and autochthonous cases by the date of symptoms onset as of March 30th,*** also assessed the effect of social distancing interventions in Lima by generating short-term forecasts grounded on the early transmission dynamics before interventions were put in *** to the implementation of the social distancing measures in Lima,the local incidence curve by the date of symptoms onset displays near exponential growth dynamics with the mean scaling of growth parameter,p,estimated at 0.96(95%CI:0.87,1.0)and the reproduction number at 2.3(95%CI:2.0,2.5).Our analysis indicates that school closures and other social distancing interventions have helped slow down the spread of the novel coronavirus,with the nearly exponential growth trend shifting to an approximately linear growth trend soon after the broad scale social distancing interventions were put in place by the *** the interventions appear to have slowed the transmission rate in Lima,the number of new COVID-19 cases continue to accumulate,highlighting the need to strengthen social distancing and active case finding efforts to mitigate disease transmission in the region.

关键词： COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Transmission potential short-term forecast Reproduction number Generalized growth model

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short-term prediction of photovoltaic power generation based on LMD-EE-ESN with error correction

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Journal of Measurement Science and Instrumentation 2024年第3期15卷 360-368页

作者： YU Xiangqian LI Zheng Zhangye Power Supply Company State Grid Gansu Electric Power CompanyZhangye 734000China School of Electrical Engineering Southwest Jiaotong UniversityChengdu 610097China

Considering the instability of the output power of photovoltaic(PV)generation system,to improve the power regulation ability of PV power during grid-connected operation,based on the quantitative analysis of meteorological conditions,a short-term prediction method of PV power based on LMD-EE-ESN with iterative error correction was ***,through the fuzzy clustering processing of meteorological conditions,taking the power curves of PV power generation in sunny,rainy or snowy,cloudy,and changeable weather as the reference,the local mean decomposition(LMD)was carried out respectively,and their energy entropy(EE)was taken as the meteorological ***,the historical generation power series was decomposed by LMD algorithm,and the hierarchical prediction of the power curve was realized by echo state network(ESN)prediction algorithm combined with meteorological ***,the iterative error theory was applied to the correction of power prediction *** analysis of the historical data in the PV power generation system shows that this method avoids the influence of meteorological conditions in the short-term prediction of PV output power,and improves the accuracy of power prediction on the condition of hierarchical prediction and iterative error correction.

关键词： photovoltaic(PV)power generation system short-term forecast local mean decomposition(LMD) energy entropy(EE) echo state network(ESN)

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