Early transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in a southern hemisphere setting:Lima-Peru:February 29^(th)-March 30^(th),2020

作     者：César V.Munayco Amna Tariq Richard Rothenberg Gabriela G.Soto-Cabezas Mary F.Reyes Andree Valle Leonardo Rojas-Mezarina César Cabezas Manuel Loayza Gerardo Chowell 无 

作者机构：Centro Nacional de EpidemiologíaPrevenci
on y Control de EnfermedadesPeruvian Ministry of HealthLimaPeru Department of Population Health SciencesSchool of Public HealthGeorgia State UniversityAtlantaGAUSA Instituto Nacional de SaludPeruvian Ministry of HealthLimaPeru Peru COVID-19 working group 

出 版 物：《Infectious Disease Modelling》 (传染病建模（英文）)

年 卷 期：2020年第5卷第1期

页      面：338-345页

学科分类：1204[管理学-公共管理] 1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 1001[医学-基础医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 0701[理学-数学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：G.C.is partially supported from NSF grants 1610429 and 1633381 and R01 GM 130900 

主　　题：COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Transmission potential Short-term forecast Reproduction number Generalized growth model 

摘      要：The COVID-19 pandemic that emerged in Wuhan China has generated substantial morbidity and mortality impact around the world during the last four *** daily trend in reported cases has been rapidly rising in Latin America since March 2020 with the great majority of the cases reported in Brazil followed by Peru as of April 15th,*** Peru implemented a range of social distancing measures soon after the confirmation of its first case on March 6th,2020,the daily number of new COVID-19 cases continues to accumulate in this *** assessed the early COVID-19 transmission dynamics and the effect of social distancing interventions in Lima,*** estimated the reproduction number,R,during the early transmission phase in Lima from the daily series of imported and autochthonous cases by the date of symptoms onset as of March 30th,*** also assessed the effect of social distancing interventions in Lima by generating short-term forecasts grounded on the early transmission dynamics before interventions were put in *** to the implementation of the social distancing measures in Lima,the local incidence curve by the date of symptoms onset displays near exponential growth dynamics with the mean scaling of growth parameter,p,estimated at 0.96(95%CI:0.87,1.0)and the reproduction number at 2.3(95%CI:2.0,2.5).Our analysis indicates that school closures and other social distancing interventions have helped slow down the spread of the novel coronavirus,with the nearly exponential growth trend shifting to an approximately linear growth trend soon after the broad scale social distancing interventions were put in place by the *** the interventions appear to have slowed the transmission rate in Lima,the number of new COVID-19 cases continue to accumulate,highlighting the need to strengthen social distancing and active case finding efforts to mitigate disease transmission in the region.