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A portfolio approach to managing ecological risks of global change

Ecosystem Health and Sustainability 2017年第2期3卷 1-16页

作者： Gregory H.Aplet Peter S.McKinley The Wilderness Society 1660 Wynkoop StreetSuite 850DenverColorado 80202 USA The Wilderness Society 9 Union StreetSecond FloorHallowellMaine 04347 USA

The stressors of global environmental change make it impossible over the long term for natural systems to maintain their historical ***’s new objective must be to maintain the building blocks of future systems(e.g.,species,genes,soil types,and landforms)as they continuously *** of the certainty of change,some biologists and managers question continued use of retrospective conservation strategies(e.g.,reserves and restoration)informed by the historical range of *** strategies that manage toward anticipated conditions have joined the conservation toolbox alongside retrospective *** argue that high uncertainty around the rates and trajectories of climate and ecological change dictate the need to spread ecological risk using prospective and retrospective strategies across conservation networks in a systematic and adaptively managed *** term this a portfolio approach drawing comparisons to financial portfolio risk management as a means to maximize conservation benefit and *** with a financial portfolio,the portfolio approach requires that management allocations receive minimum temporal commitments to realize longer-term *** approach requires segregation of the strategies into three landscape zones to avoid counterproductive *** zones will be managed to(1)observe change,(2)resist change,and(3)facilitate *** offer guidelines for zone allocation based on ecological *** zones should follow principles of conservation design traditionally applied to *** to financial portfolios,zone performance is monitored to facilitate learning and potential reallocation for long-term net minimization of risk to the building blocks of future ecosystems.

关键词： adaptive management biodiversity connectivity global change gradients portfolio reserve restoration risk spreading transformation

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