A portfolio approach to managing ecological risks of global change

作     者：Gregory H.Aplet Peter S.McKinley 

作者机构：The Wilderness Society1660 Wynkoop StreetSuite 850DenverColorado 80202 USA The Wilderness Society9 Union StreetSecond FloorHallowellMaine 04347 USA 

出 版 物：《Ecosystem Health and Sustainability》 (生态系统健康与可持续性（英文）)

年 卷 期：2017年第3卷第2期

页      面：1-16页

核心收录：

学科分类：0710[理学-生物学] 0502[文学-外国语言文学] 050201[文学-英语语言文学] 0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 05[文学] 0713[理学-生态学] 

主　　题：adaptive management biodiversity connectivity global change gradients portfolio reserve restoration risk spreading transformation 

摘      要：The stressors of global environmental change make it impossible over the long term for natural systems to maintain their historical ***’s new objective must be to maintain the building blocks of future systems(e.g.,species,genes,soil types,and landforms)as they continuously *** of the certainty of change,some biologists and managers question continued use of retrospective conservation strategies(e.g.,reserves and restoration)informed by the historical range of *** strategies that manage toward anticipated conditions have joined the conservation toolbox alongside retrospective *** argue that high uncertainty around the rates and trajectories of climate and ecological change dictate the need to spread ecological risk using prospective and retrospective strategies across conservation networks in a systematic and adaptively managed *** term this a portfolio approach drawing comparisons to financial portfolio risk management as a means to maximize conservation benefit and *** with a financial portfolio,the portfolio approach requires that management allocations receive minimum temporal commitments to realize longer-term *** approach requires segregation of the strategies into three landscape zones to avoid counterproductive *** zones will be managed to(1)observe change,(2)resist change,and(3)facilitate *** offer guidelines for zone allocation based on ecological *** zones should follow principles of conservation design traditionally applied to *** to financial portfolios,zone performance is monitored to facilitate learning and potential reallocation for long-term net minimization of risk to the building blocks of future ecosystems.