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risk decision Analysis of Logistics Purchasing Based on Mathematical Expectation

Open Journal of Modelling and Simulation 2016年第2期4卷 41-45页

作者： Fengying Wang Zhixin Liang School of Information Beijing Wuzi University Beijing China

The mathematical expectation value method is a commonly used method in risk decision-making. This paper studies the problem of how to arrange the purchase plan in order to get the maximum expected profit;considering the applicable principles of mathematical expectation, the decision method for getting the optimal decision scheme is given. Finally, we do simulation and stability analysis on an example and obtain the reasonable result. This result shows that mathematical expectation value method is effective in solving the problem of risk decision.

关键词： Mathematical Expectation Logistics Purchasing risk decision Stability

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ERP analyses of risk decisions under various intensities of specific emotions

ERP analyses of risk decisions under various intensities of ...

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中国神经科学学会第十二届全国学术会议

作者： Xin LIU Rong HUANG Jia-Yun WU Ge-Xin WEI Tong YU Meng-Ya WANG Cell Electrophysiology Laboratory Wannan Medical College Rising-Star Group Wannan Medical College Department of Insurance Wannan Medical College Department of Medical Psychology Anhui Medical University

Objective To explore what decisions people will make under various intensities of specific emotions. Methods The subjects were randomly divided into 7 groups（n=10）, 3 types of emotion with higher and lower intensity, and control group. The higher intensity of enjoyable, frightening and irritating emotion was induced by watching corresponding enjoyable, frightening and irritating videos, while lower intensity of each emotion was induce by watching corresponding pictures. The subjects in control groups were not pretreated. The risky decisions with the technology of E-prime and ERP recording and analyses were conducted, including comparison the behavior disparities of risky and conservative choices, the index of N200 and P300 in ERP. Results（1） The risky decision behavior did not show obvious disparities（P＞0.05）.（2） The P300 analysis with higher intensity of emotion showed significant difference between anger group and terror group（P＜0.05）.（3） The index of P300 with lower intensity was different between anger and terror groups, or between delight and anger groups（P＜0.05）.（4） The index of N200 with higher intensity was significant difference between anger and terror groups（P＜0.05）.（5）The N200 analysis with lower intensity showed no significant difference between groups（P＞0.05）.（6） The index of P300 with the same emotion was different in anger group or terror group between higher and lower intensity（P＜0.05）.（7） Analysis of N200 with the same emotion showed no difference in groups between intensities（P＞0.05）. Conclusion（1） The terror and anger both belong to negative emotion, but only anger group is consistent with delight group.（2） Under the delight and terror emotion, the higher intensity may have the bigger peak value than the lower intensity, but the anger emotion is reverse.

关键词： risk decision Intensity of emotion ERP

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Allocation Planning for R&D with Uncertainty:Model and Procedure

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Systems Science and Systems Engineering 1993年第3期3卷 204-210页

作者： FENG Junwen Nanjing University of Science & Technology, Nanjing 210014, China

A decision support model with the stochastic objective function measuring the benefit contributions of projects and stochastic resource constraint and its decision making analysis procedure with the case study are presented for selecting R&D projects, in which the uncertainty in project evaluation and selection, the technical or outcome, cost or resource and benefit or payoff interrelationships among projects, and the experience and knowledge of the R&D manager can be considered.

关键词： decision analysis decision support system R&D project selection risk decision uncertainty decision allocation planning.

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Approach of determining interval entropy weight based on the subjective preference of decision-maker and its application

Approach of determining interval entropy weight based on the...

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2009中国控制与决策会议

作者： Zhou Rongxi~1,Xu Jianrong~2,He Dayi~3 1.School of Economics and Management,Beijing university of Chemical Technology,Beijing,100029,china 2.School of Economics and Management,Beijing university of Chemical Technology,Beijing,100029,china 3.School of Humanities and Economics Management,China University of Geosciences(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China

＜正＞For an uncertain decision process,how to combine the subjective preference of decision maker with objective information is a very significant *** paper introduces the measure of decision-maker’s optimism to describe the situation of the interval number in uncertain multiple attribute decision-making. Based on the method of determining interval entropy weight,the optimization model which can reflect the measure of decision maker’s optimism and make full advantage of existing objective information is *** a new method of decision in interval entropy weight is given on the basis of the subjective preference of decision-maker and objective ***,the example of risk decision for the development of the aerospace project is presented to show the feasibility and effectiveness of this method.

关键词： measure of optimism multiple attribute decision-making interval entropy weight development of aerospace project risk decision

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