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Bayesian reliability——growth Analysis for Statistical of Diverse Population Based on Non-homogeneous Poisson Process

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Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering 2009年第4期22卷 535-541页

作者： MING Zhimao TAO Junyong ZHANG Yunan YI Xiaoshan CHEN Xun College of Mechatronics Engineering and Automation National University of Defense Technology Changsha 410073 China Center for Risk and reliability Department of Mechanical Engineering University of Maryland MD 20742 USA

New armament systems are subjected to the method for dealing with multi-stage system reliability-growth statistical problems of diverse population in order to improve reliability before starting mass production. Aiming at the test process which is high expense and small sample-size in the development of complex system, the specific methods are studied on how to process the statistical information of Bayesian reliability growth regarding diverse populations. Firstly, according to the characteristics of reliability growth during product development, the Bayesian method is used to integrate the testing information of multi-stage and the order relations of distribution parameters. And then a Gamma-Beta prior distribution is proposed based on non-homogeneous Poisson process（NHPP） corresponding to the reliability growth process. The posterior distribution of reliability parameters is obtained regarding different stages of product, and the reliability parameters are evaluated based on the posterior distribution. Finally, Bayesian approach proposed in this paper for multi-stage reliability growth test is applied to the test process which is small sample-size in the astronautics filed. The results of a numerical example show that the presented model can make use of the diverse information synthetically, and pave the way for the application of the Bayesian model for multi-stage reliability growth test evaluation with small sample-size. The method is useful for evaluating multi-stage system reliability and making reliability growth plan rationally.

关键词： diverse population statistic order relations reliability growth Bayesian approach non-homogeneous Poisson process Gamma-Beta distribution

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Bayesian synthetic evaluation of multistage reliability growth with instant and delayed fix modes

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Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics 2008年第6期19卷 1287-1294页

作者： Yan Zhiqiang Li Xinxin Xie Hongwei Jiang Yingjie Coll. of Mechatronic Engineering and Automation National Univ. of Defense Technology Changsha 410073 P. R. China

In the multistage reliability growth tests with instant and delayed fix modes, the failure data can be assumed to follow Weibull processes with different parameters at different stages. For the Weibull process within a stage, by the proper selection of prior distribution form and the parameters, a concise posterior distribution form is obtained, thus simplifying the Bayesian analysis. In the multistage tests, the improvement factor is used to convert the posterior of one stage to the prior of the subsequent stage. The conversion criterion is carefully analyzed to determine the distribution parameters of the subsequent stage＇s variable reasonably. Based on the mentioned results, a new synthetic Bayesian evaluation program and algorithm framework is put forward to evaluate the multistage reliability growth tests with instant and delayed fix modes. The example shows the effectiveness and flexibility of this method.

关键词： reliability growth Bayesian analysis improvement factor multistage test Weibull process

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维普期刊数据库

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Bayesian sequential testing for exponential life system with reliability growth

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Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics 2011年第6期22卷 1023-1029页

作者： Yunyan Xing Xiaoyue Wu College of Information Systems and Management National University of Defense Technology Changsha 410073 P. R. China

A Bayesian sequential testing method is proposed to evaluate system reliability index with reliability growth during development.The method develops a reliability growth model of repairable systems for failure censored test,and figures out the approach to determine the prior distribution of the system failure rate by applying the reliability growth model to incorporate the multistage test data collected from system development.Furthermore,the procedure for the Bayesian sequential testing is derived for the failure rate of the exponential life system,which enables the decision to terminate or continue development test.Finally,a numerical example is given to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed model and procedure.

关键词： reliability growth Bayesian method prior distribution sequential testing exponential life system.

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Two new multi-phase reliability growth models from the perspective of time between failures and their applications

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Chinese Journal of Aeronautics 2021年第5期34卷 341-349页

作者： Kunsong LIN Yunxia CHEN School of reliability and Systems Engineering Beihang UniversityBeijing 100191China Science and Technology on reliability and Environmental Engineering Laboratory Beihang UniversityBeijing 100191China

Aviation products would go through a multi-phase improvement in reliability performance during the research and development process.In the literature,most of the existing reliability growth models assume a constant failure intensity in each test phase,which inevitably limits the scope of the application.To address this problem,we propose two new models considering timevarying failure intensity in each stage.The proposed models borrow the idea from the accelerated failure-time models.It is assumed that time between failures follow the log-location-scale distribution and the scale parameters in each phase do not change,which forms the basis for integrating the data from all test stages.For the test-find-test scenario,an improvement factor is introduced to construct the relationship between two successive location parameters.Whereas for the test-fix-test scenario,the instantaneous cumulative time between failures is assumed to be consistent with Duane model and derive the formulation of location parameter.Likelihood ratio test is further utilized to test whether the assumption of constant failure intensity in each phase is suitable.Several applications with real reliability growth data show that the assumptions are reasonable and the proposed models outperform the existing models.

关键词： reliability growth Test-find-test strategy Test-fix-test strategy Time-varying failure intensity Time between failures

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COMMENTS ON AMSAA-BISE reliability growth MODEL (Ⅰ)

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Applied Mathematics and Mechanics(English Edition) 2001年第7期22卷 851-855页

作者：梅文华郭月娥杨义先 Beijing Aeronautical Technology Research Center Beijing P R China

From 1986 to 1991,based on AMSAA model, ZHOU Yuan_quan and WENG Zhao_xi presented AMSAA_BISE model to estimate reliability growth for multiple systems development, for the case that more than one system of the same type is put into reliability growth test, once a Type B failure mode is seen during test, corrective action will be taken to all systems. It is shown that there is something wrong with AMSAA_BISE model. According to AMSAA_BISE model, the maximum likelihood estimation of MTBF for multiple systems reliability growth test is much larger than that according to AMSAA model for a single system; The more systems is put into test, the larger the estimation of MTBF. An example is given, and an approximate method is presented.

关键词： reliability growth multiple systems simultaneous development AMSAA model AMSAA_BISE model

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RESEARCH ON reliability growth FOR SYNCHRONOUSLY DEVELOPED MULTI-SYSTEMS

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Applied Mathematics and Mechanics(English Edition) 2005年第9期26卷 1121-1125页

作者：马小宁吕震宙岳珠峰 School of Aeronautics Northwestern Polytechnical University Xi’an 710072 P.R.China

An advanced reliability growth model, i. e. exponential model, was presented to estimate the model parameters for multi-systems, which was synchronously tested, synchronously censored, and synchronously improved. In the presented method, the data during the reliability growth process were taken into consideration sufficiently, including the failure numbers, safety numbers and failure time at each censored time. If the multi-systems were synchronously improved for many times, and the reliability growth of each system fitted AMSAA （Army Material Systems Analysis Activity） model, the failure time of each system could be considered rationally as an exponential distribution between two adjoining censored times. The nonparametric method was employed to obtain the reliability at each censored time of the synchronous multisystems. The point estimations of the model parameters, a and b, were given by the least square method. The confidence interval for the parameter b was given as well. An engineering illustration was used to compare the result of the presented method with those of the available models. The result shows that the presented exponential growth model fits AMSAA-BISE （ Army Material Systems Analysis Activity-Beijing Institute of Structure and Environment） model rather well, and two models are suitable to estimate the reliability growth for the synchronously developed multi-systems.

关键词： reliability growth AMSAA model AMSAA-BISE model nonhomogeneity Poisson process least square method

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Data-driven reliability analysis of Boeing 787 Dreamliner

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Chinese Journal of Aeronautics 2020年第7期33卷 1969-1979页

作者： Guru PANDIAN Michael PECHT Enrico ZIO Melinda HODKIEWICZ Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering(CALCE) University of MarylandCollege ParkMD 20742USA Department of Energy Politecnico di MilanoItaly Faculty of Engineering and Mathematical Sciences University of Western AustraliaPerthWA 6009Australia

The Boeing 787 Dreamliner,launched in 2011,was presented as a game changer in air travel.With the aim of producing an efficient,mid-size,wide-body plane,Boeing initiated innovations in product and process design,supply chain operation,and risk management.Nevertheless,there were reliability issues from the start,and the plane was grounded by the U.S.Federal Aviation Administration(FAA)in 2013,due to safety problems associated with Li-ion battery fires.This paper chronicles events associated with the aircraft’s initial reliability challenges.The manufacturing,supply chain,and organizational factors that contributed to these problems are assessed based on FAA data.Recommendations and lessons learned are provided for the benefit of engineers and managers who will be engaged in future complex systems development.

关键词： Boeing 787 Dispatch reliability Dreamliner Lithium-ion battery reliability reliability growth

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The reliability growth Simulation Analysis of Vehicle Based on Warranty Data

The Reliability Growth Simulation Analysis of Vehicle Based ...

引用

2018中国汽车工程学会年会

作者： LIU Baoyin SUN Zhonghui LI Xing FAW jiefang Automobile Co. Ltd.

Considering that vehicle reliability has growth tendency during consumer usage period due to quality improvement of OEM,the warranty data of a type of vehicle sold in one year is studied.AMSAA model combined with multi-systems asynchronous reliability growth theory is applied to analyze the reliability growth tendency based on warranty data,and the effectiveness of the method is proved by the simulation results.

关键词： warranty data reliability growth AMSAA model

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