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Effect of awareness,quarantine and vaccination as control strategies on COVID-19 with Co-morbidity and Re-infection

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2022年第4期7卷 660-689页

作者： Amit Kumar Saha Shikha Saha Chandra Nath Podder Department of Mathematics University of DhakaDhaka1000Bangladesh Department of Mathematics Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology(BUET)Dhaka1000Bangladesh

In this paper,a deterministic compartmental model is presented to assess the impact of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions(social distance,awareness,face mask,and quarantine)on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 with co-morbidity and reinfection.An expression for the basic reproduction number is then derived for this model.Theoretical analysis shows that the model exhibits backward bifurcation phenomenon when the basic reproduction number is less than unity.But for the case of no reinfection,the model has a globally asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium(DFE)when the basic reproduction number is less than unity.Furthermore,it is shown that in the case of no re-infection,a unique endemic equilibrium point(EEP)of the model exists which is globally asymptotically stable whenever the reproduction number is greater than unity.From the global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis,we have identified mask coverage,mask efficacy,vaccine coverage,vaccine efficacy,and contact rate as the most influential parameters influencing the spread of COVID-19.Numerical simulation results show that the use of effective vaccines with proper implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions could lead to the elimination of COVID-19 from the community.Numerical simulations also suggest that the control strategy that ensures a continuous and effective mass vaccination program is the most cost-effective control strategy.The study also shows that in the presence of any co-morbidity and with the occurrence of re-infection,the disease burden may increase.

关键词： COVID-19 Co-morbidity Face-mask quarantine Vaccination Optimal control Re-infection

quarantine,distress and interpersonal relationships during COVID-19

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General Psychiatry 2020年第6期33卷 437-441页

作者： Robin Goodwin Wai Kai HOU Shaojing Sun Menachem Ben-Ezra Department of Psychology University of WarwickCoventryUK Department of Psychology The Education University of Hong KongHong KongHong Kong Department of Journalism Fudan UniversityShanghaiShanghaiChina Department of Social Work Ariel UniversityArielIsrael

Novel zoonosis COVID-19 first emerged in Wuhan,China,but rapidly spread to the other regions in China.The spread of this severe acute respiratory syndrome led to the quarantine of 60 million Chinese citizens.Such isolation measures have been associated with increased depression,stress and emotional disturbance.1-3 However,major traumatic events can amplify both positive and negative aspects of interpersonal relations,leading to competing narratives of both harm and enhancem ent.4 quarantine can create family dependencies,threaten livelihoods and lead to the stigmatisation of those infected/b School closures and disruption of family care seriously disrupt regular domestic practices.

关键词： closure measures quarantine

Minimizing the risk of community spread of COVID-19 via institutional quarantine of high-risk travelers with serial viral RNA testing: A successful experience from Macao SAR, China

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World Journal of Clinical Cases 2020年第13期8卷 2674-2678页

作者： Chon Fu Lio Hou Hon Cheong Chin Ion Lei Iek Long Lo Chong Lam Iek Hou Leong Macao Academy of Medicine Health BureauMacao SARChina Department of Internal Medicine Centro Hospitalar Conde de São JanuárioHealth BureauMacao SARChina Department of Respiratory Medicine Centro Hospitalar Conde de São JanuárioHealth BureauMacao SARChina Center for Disease Control and Prevention Health BureauMacao SARChina

Macao,a special administrative region(SAR)of the People’s Republic of China,is located in southern China and shares the border with China's Mainland.It is the most densely populated region in the world,with a population of 667400 and a total land area of 32.9 square kilometers in 2019.Since the first case diagnosed on January 22,2020,there was a total of 45 laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)cases in Macao,of which 43 patients(96%)were imported cases.To date,all patients had been discharged successfully from Centro Hospitalar Conde de São Januário,a designated hospital to manage all COVID-19 patients in Macao.Eventually,no patient died,and no local community outbreak was noted.This opinion review describes the underlying factors that could have contributed to the successful experience in Macao SAR,China,which include the following:(1)Early implementation of containment measures;(2)Large-scale quarantine using hotel rooms to reduce the risk of a local outbreak;and(3)Multidisciplinary co-operation and transparency of information to the public.Although the successful experience in Macao SAR,China,may not be generalized to other regions,it should not be unreasonable to be well prepared with sufficient logistic support to conduct timely containment and early detection of episodic cases to prevent the backsliding of COVID-19 outbreak.

关键词： COVID-19 Macao RNA test Containment quarantine Outbreak

Estimating the quarantine failure rate for COVID-19

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 924-929页

作者： Meili Li Qianqian Yuan Pian Chen Baojun Song Junling Ma College of Science Donghua UniversityShanghai201620China Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Montclair State UniversityMontclairNJ07043USA Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of VictoriaVictoriaBCV8W 2Y2Canada

quarantine is a crucial control measure in reducing imported COVID-19 cases and community transmissions.However,some quarantined COVID-19 patients may show symptoms after finishing quarantine due to a long median incubation period,potentially causing community transmissions.To assess the recommended 14-day quarantine policy,we develop a formula to estimate the quarantine failure rate from the incubation period distribution and the epidemic curve.We found that the quarantine failure rate increases with the exponential growth rate of the epidemic curve.We apply our formula to United States,Canada,and Hubei Province,China.Before the lockdown of Wuhan City,the quarantine failure rate in Hubei Province is about 4.1%.If the epidemic curve flattens or slowly decreases,the failure rate is less than 2.8%.The failure rate in US may be as high as 8.3%-11.5%due to a shorter 10-day quarantine period,while the failure rate in Canada may be between 2.5%and 3.9%.A 21-day quarantine period may reduce the failure rate to 0.3%-0.5%.

关键词： quarantine Incubation period Exponential growth rate Epidemic curve

Modeling the impact of quarantine during an outbreak of Ebola virus disease

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2019年第1期4卷 12-27页

作者： Attila Dénes Abba B.Gumel Bolyai Institute University of SzegedAradi vertanúk tere 1.Szeged H-6720Hungary School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Arizona State UniversityTempeAZ 85287-1804USA Other affliation:Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics University of PretoriaPretoria 0002South Africa

The quarantine of people suspected of being exposed to an infectious agent is one of the most basic public health measure that has historically been used to combat the spread of communicable diseases in human communities.This study presents a new deterministic model for assessing the population-level impact of the quarantine of individuals suspected of being exposed to disease on the spread of the 2014e2015 outbreaks of Ebola viral disease.It is assumed that quarantine is imperfect(i.e.,individuals can acquire infection during quarantine).In the absence of quarantine,the model is shown to exhibit global dynamics with respect to the disease-free and its unique endemic equilibrium when a certain epidemiological threshold(denoted byR 0)is either less than or greater than unity.Thus,unlike the full model with imperfect quarantine(which is known to exhibit the phenomenon of backward bifurcation),the version of the model with no quarantine does not undergo a backward bifurcation.Using data relevant to the 2014e2015 Ebola transmission dynamics in the three West African countries(Guinea,Liberia and Sierra Leone),uncertainty analysis of the model show that,although the current level and effectiveness of quarantine can lead to significant reduction in disease burden,they fail to bring the associated quarantine reproduction number(R Q0)to a value less than unity(which is needed to make effective disease control or elimination feasible).This reduction of R Q0 is,however,very possible with a modest increase in quarantine rate and effectiveness.It is further shown,via sensitivity analysis,that the parameters related to the effectiveness of quarantine(namely the parameter associated with the reduction in infectiousness of infected quarantined individuals and the contact rate during quarantine)are the main drivers of the disease transmission dynamics.Overall,this study shows that the singular implementation of a quarantine intervention strategy can lead to the effective control or elimination of Ebola viral disease in a communit

关键词： Ebola virus disease quarantine Global dynamics

Epidemic modeling for the resurgence of COVID-19 in Chinese local communities

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Journal of Safety Science and Resilience 2022年第3期3卷 229-234页

作者： Min Peng Jianing Zhang Jingrui Gong Xingqi Ran Jvlu Liu Lin Zhang School of Science Beijing University of Posts and TelecommunicationsBeijing 100876China

COVID-19 is a constantly challenging global health issue due to its strong intensity,rapid mutation and high infectiousness.The new Delta and Omicron variants have triggered massive outbreaks worldwide.Even China,which has done a good job in outbreak prevention,is still heavily affected by the virus.The long-term fight against multiple COVID-19 outbreaks is ongoing.In this study,we propose an SEIQR model that considers the incubation period and quarantine measurement.We verified our model using actual outbreak data from four Chinese cities.Numerical simulations show that a five-day delay results in a double resurgence scale.Our model can be used as a tool to understand the spread of the virus quantitatively and provide a reference for policymaking accordingly.

关键词： COVID-19 Mutation Resurgence SEIQR model quarantine

Assessing the efficacy of health countermeasures on arrival time of infectious diseases

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2023年第2期8卷 603-616页

作者： Yusuke Asai Disease Control and Prevention Center National Center for Global Health and Medicine1-21-1 ToyamaShinjuku-kuTokyo162-8655Japan

Public health measures to control the international spread of infectious diseases include strengthening quarantines and sealing borders.Although these measures are effective in delaying the importation of infectious diseases,they also have a significant economic impact by stopping the flow of people and goods.The arrival time of infectious diseases is often used to assess quarantine effectiveness.Although the arrival time is highly dependent on the number of infected cases in the endemic country,direct comparisons have not yet been made.Therefore,this study derives an explicit relationship between the number of infected cases and arrival time.Transmission behavior is stochastic,and deterministic models are not always realistic.In this study,random differential equations,which are differential equations with stochastic processes,were used to describe the dynamics of infection in an endemic country.Furthermore,the flow of travelers from the endemic country was described in terms of survival time,and the arrival time in each country was calculated.A scenario in which PCR kits were distributed between endemic and diseasefree countries was also considered,and the impact of different distribution rates on arrival time was evaluated.The simulation results showed that increasing the distribution of PCR kits in the endemic country was more effective in delaying arrival times than using PCR kits in quarantine in disease-free countries.It was also found that increasing the proportion of identified infected persons in the endemic country,leading to isolation,was more important and effective in delaying arrival times than increasing the number of PCR tests.

关键词： Epidemic model Arrival time Health countermeasures quarantine Random ODE

Cross-sectional survey following a longitudinal study on mental health and insomnia of people with sporadic COVID-19

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World Journal of Psychiatry 2022年第8期12卷 1076-1087页

作者： Xiao-Jun Li Tian-Ze Guo Yan Xie Yan-Ping Bao Jia-Yue Si Zhe Li Yi-Ting Xiong Hui Li Su-Xia Li Lin Lu Xue-Qin Wang Department of Psychiatry Peking University International HospitalBeijing 102206China Department of Bioengineering University of California San DiegoSan DiegoCA 92093United States Department of Psychology Peking University International HospitalBeijing 102206China Department of Epidemiology National Institute on Drug Dependence and Beijing Key laboratory of Drug DependencePeking UniversityBeijing 100191China University of California Davis DavisCA 95616United States Department of History University College LondonLondon WC1E 6BTUnited Kingdom Department of Psychiatry Peking University Sixth HospitalPeking University Institute of Mental HealthNHC Key Laboratory of Mental Health(Peking University)National Clinical Research Center for Mental Disorders(Peking University Sixth Hospital)Peking UniversityBeijing 100191China Department of Clinical Pharmacology National Institute on Drug Dependence and Beijing Key Laboratory of Drug DependencePeking UniversityBeijing 100191China Peking-Tsinghua Centre for Life Sciences and Peking University-International Development Group/McGovern Institute for Brain Research Peking UniversityBeijing 100091China

BACKGROUNDIn the post-pandemic era, the emergence of sporadic cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the scale of the pandemic are unpredictable. Therefore, the impact ofsporadic cases of COVID-19 and isolation measures on mental health and sleep in different groupsof people need to be analyzed.AIMTo clarify the severity of psychological problems and insomnia of staff and community residentsaround a hospital with sporadic cases of COVID-19, and their relationship with quarantinelocation and long-term changes.METHODSA cross-sectional survey was conducted on community residents and medical staff. Many of thesemedical staff had been subjected to different places of quarantine. Community residents did notexperience quarantine. Hospital anxiety and depression scale (HADS), acute stress disorder scale(ASDS) and insomnia severity index (ISI) were used to evaluate anxiety and depression, acutestress disorder symptoms, and the severity of insomnia. Additionally, we conducted a 1-yearfollow-up study on medical staff, with related scales measurement immediately after and one yearafter the 2-wk quarantine period.RESULTSWe included 406 medical staff and 226 community residents. The total scores of ISI and subscale inHADS of community residents were significantly higher than that of medical staff. Furtheranalysis of medical staff who experienced quarantine showed that 134 were quarantined in hotels,70 in hospitals and 48 at home. Among all subjects, the proportions of HADS, ASDS and ISI scoresabove normal cutoff value were 51.94%, 19.17% and 31.11%, respectively. Multivariable logisticregression analysis found that subjects with higher total ASDS scores had a greater risk to developanxiety and depression. The total ISI score for medical staff in hotel quarantine was significantlyhigher than those in home quarantine. Total 199 doctors and nurses who completed the 1-yearfollow-up study. Compared with baseline, HADS and ASDS scores decreased significantly oneyear after the end of quarantine, while ISI scores did not cha

关键词： COVID-19 Depression Anxiety Insomnia quarantine

Modeling the early transmission of COVID-19 in New York and San Francisco using a pairwise network model

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2022年第1期7卷 212-230页

作者： Shanshan Feng Xiao-Feng Luo Xin Pei Zhen Jin Mark Lewis Hao Wang Department of Mathematics North University of ChinaTaiyuanShanxi030051China College of Mathematics Taiyuan University of TechnologyShanxiTaiyuan030024China Complex System Research Center Shanxi UniversityTaiyuan030006ShanxiChina Shanxi Key Laboratory of Mathematical Techniques and Big Data Analysis on Disease Control and Prevention Shanxi UniversityTaiyuan030006ShanxiChina Department of Mathematics and Statistics Sciences University of AlbertaEdmontonAlbertaT6G 2G1Canada Department of Biological Sciences University of AlbertaEdmontonAlbertaT6G 2E9Canada

Classical epidemiological models assume mass action.However,this assumption is violated when interactions are not random.With the recent COVID-19 pandemic,and resulting shelter in place social distancing directives,mass action models must be modified to account for limited social interactions.In this paper we apply a pairwise network model with moment closure to study the early transmission of COVID-19 in New York and San Francisco and to investigate the factors determining the severity and duration of outbreak in these two cities.In particular,we consider the role of population density,transmission rates and social distancing on the disease dynamics and outcomes.Sensitivity analysis shows that there is a strongly negative correlation between the clustering coefficient in the pairwise model and the basic reproduction number and the effective reproduction number.The shelter in place policy makes the clustering coefficient increase thereby reducing the basic reproduction number and the effective reproduction number.By switching population densities in New York and San Francisco we demonstrate how the outbreak would progress if New York had the same density as San Francisco and vice-versa.The results underscore the crucial role that population density has in the epidemic outcomes.We also show that under the assumption of no further changes in policy or transmission dynamics not lifting the shelter in place policy would have little effect on final outbreak size in New York,but would reduce the final size in San Francisco by 97%.

关键词： COVID-19 Social network quarantine Social distance Clustering coefficient