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Journal of Mountain Science 2022年第10期19卷 2886-2904页

作者： JIAN Sheng-qi ZHU Tian-sheng HU Cai-hong College of Water Resources and Environment Zhengzhou UniversityZhengzhou 450001China

Due to the influence of human activities such as cultivation and urban construction,the ecosystem of the Yellow River Basin(YRB)is subjected to increased vulnerability and even potential risk of destruction.Ecological restoration has led to an increase in vegetation,but excessive afforestation conversely results in low survival rate of trees,water shortages,and biodiversity loss.It is of great significance for achieving sustainable development of forests to reasonable revegetation in the region.At present,the potential distribution pattern of dominant species and their mixed forms in the basin has not been effectively studied.This study simulated the potential distribution of dominant vegetation in the YRB based on Maximum Entropy(Max Ent)and Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Prediction(GARP)and explored the impact of human interference on it by employing land use as the environmental filter to distinguish the regions of human activities.We further predicted the potential distribution of typically mixed forests and discussed their human interference.The main results are as follows:(1)Except for Caragana korshinskii,all models had good above performance(0.7

关键词： Yellow River potential distribution Land use Mixed forests Vegetation restoration

Impact of climate change on potential habitat distribution of Sciaenidae in the coastal waters of China

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2023年第4期42卷 59-71页

作者： Wen Yang Wenjia Hu Bin Chen Hongjian Tan Shangke Su Like Ding Peng Dong Weiwei Yu Jianguo Du Third Institute of Oceanography Ministry of Natural ResourcesXiamen 361005China College of Marine Science Shanghai Ocean UniversityShanghai 201306China Key Laboratory of Marine Ecological Conservation and Restoration Ministry of Natural ResourcesXiamen 361005China Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Marine Ecological Conservation and Restoration Xiamen 361005China Aerospace Information Research Institute Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100094China

Climate change has affected and will continue to affect the spatial distribution patterns of marine organisms.To understand the impact of climate change on the distribution patterns and species richness of the Sciaenidae in China’s coastal waters,the maximum entropy model was used to combine six environmental factors and predict the potential distribution of 12 major species of Sciaenidae by 2050s under Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs)2.6 and 8.5.The results showed that the average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the model was 0.917,indicating that the model predictions were accurate and reliable.The main driving factors affecting the potential distribution of these fishes were dissolved oxygen,salinity,and sea surface temperature(SST).There was an overall northward shift in the potential habitat areas of these fishes under the two climate scenarios.The total potential habitat areas of Larimichthys polyactis,Pennahia argentata,and Pennahia pawak decreased under both climate scenarios,while the total habitat area of Johnius belengerii,Pennahia anea,Miichthys miiuy,Collichthys lucidus,and Collichthys niveatus increased,suggesting that these might be loser and winner species,respectively.The expansion rate,contraction rate,degree of centroid change,and species richness in the potential habitats were generally more significant under RCP8.5 than RCP2.6.The mean shift rates of the potential distribution were 41.50 km/(10 a) and 29.20 km/(10 a) under RCP8.5 and RCP2.6,respectively.The changes in Sciaenidae species richness under climate change were bounded by the Changjiang River Estuary waters,with obvious north-south differences.Some waters with increased species richness may become refuges for Sciaenidae fishes under climate change.The richness and habitat area change rate of some aquatic germplasm resources will decrease,meanings that these reserves are more sensitive to climate change,and more attention should be paid to the potential challenges and opportunities for fishery man

关键词： climate change Sciaenidae potential distribution species richness habitat

The potential distribution of adult Antarctic krill in the Amundsen Sea

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Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2022年第4期40卷 1566-1577页

作者： Jianlong FENG Lulu LIU Qiulin LIU Liang ZHAO Key Laboratory of Marine Resource Chemistry and Food Technology(TUST) Ministry of EducationTianjin University of Science and TechnologyTianjin 300457China National Marine Data&Information Service Tianjin 300457China College of Marine and Environmental Science Tianjin University of Science and TechnologyTianjin 300457China

Antarctic krill is the key species of ecological system in the Amundsen Sea.At present,the suitable distribution is unobtainable by scientifi c surveys or data from the fi shery.In this paper,the maximum entropy algorithm(Maxent)was used to obtain the potential distribution of adult Antarctic krill in order to provide useful information and reasonable reference for the policy on protecting potential krill habitats around the Amundsen Sea.Occurrence points and 17 environmental variables were used to simulate the distributions.Results show that the high and moderate suitable habitats lie between 65°S and 72°S in the Amundsen Sea.The high suitable habitat accounts for 8.1%of the total area of the Amundsen Sea.The sea ice persistence(ICE),total phytoplankton(PHYC),and the minimum value of dissolved iron(Fe_min)are the three dominant contributors to the model.Results from the response curves show that Antarctic krill preferred habitats with ICE of 0.42-0.93,PHYC of 2.48-2.77 mmol/m^(3) and Fe_min of(7.10×10^(-5))-(9.45×10^(-5))mmol/m 3.Positive trends existed in the PHYC of the high and moderate suitable habitat,and a positive trend existed in the Fe_min of moderate suitable habitat.However,the probability of presence of Antarctic krill will decrease if the increase of the PHYC and Fe_min continues.

关键词： krill Amundsen Sea Maxent potential distribution

potential distribution on Random Electrical Networks

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Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica 2011年第3期27卷 549-559页

作者： Da-qian Qian Xiao-dong Zhang Department of Mathematics Shanghai Jiao Tong University 800 Dongchuan Road Shanghai 200240 China

Let N = （G, c） be a random electrical network obtained by assigning a certain resistance for each edge in a random graph G ∈ G（n, p） and the potentials on the boundary vertices. In this paper, we prove that with ... 详细信息

关键词： Electrical network potential distribution random graphs

Modeling impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of six endemic baobab species in Madagascar

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Plant Diversity 2021年第2期43卷 117-124页

作者： Jun-Nan Wan Ndungu J.Mbari Sheng-Wei Wang Bing Liu Brian N.Mwangi Jean R.E.Rasoarahona Hai-Ping Xin Ya-Dong Zhou Qing-Feng Wang Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture Wuhan Botanical GardenChinese Academy of SciencesWuhanHubei430074PR China State Key Laboratory of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany Institute of BotanyChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100093PR China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049PR China Sino-Africa Joint Research Center Chinese Academy of SciencesWuhanHubei430074PR China High School of Agricultural Sciences University of AntananarivoP.O.Box 175Madagascar

Madagascar,a globally renowned biodiversity hotspot characterized by high rates of endemism,is one of the few remaining refugia for many plants and animal species.However,global climate change has greatly affected the natural ecosystem and endemic species living in Madagascar,and will likely continue to influence species distribution in the future.Madagascar is home to six endemic baobab(Adansonia spp.,Bombacoideae[Malvaceae])species(Adansonia grandidieri,A.suarezensis,A.madagascariensis,A.perrieri,A.rubrostipa,A.za),which are remarkable and endangered plants.This study aimed to model the current distribution of suitable habitat for each baobab species endemic to Madagascar and determine the effect that climate change will have on suitable baobab habitat by the years 2050 and 2070.The distribution was modeled using MaxEnt based on locality information of 245 occurrence sites of six species from both online database and our own field work.A total of seven climatic variables were used for the modeling process.The present distribution of all six Madagascar's baobabs was largely influenced by temperature-related factors.Although both expansion and contraction of suitable habitat are predicted for all species,loss of original suitable habitat is predicted to be extensive.For the most widespread Madagascar baobab,A.za,more than 40%of its original habitat is predicted to be lost because of climate change.Based on these findings,we recommend that areas predicted to contract in response to climate change should be designated key protection regions for baobab conservation.

关键词： Madagascar Adansonia Climate change MaxEnt potential distribution

potential distribution of Alien Invasive Species and Risk Assessment:a Case Study of Erwinia amylovora in China

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Agricultural Sciences in China 2007年第6期6卷 688-695页

作者： CHEN Chen CHEN Juan HU Bai-shi IIANG Ying-hua LIU Feng-quan Key Laboratory of Monitoring and Management of Plant Diseases and Insects Ministry of Agriculture Nanjing Agricultural UniversityNanjing 210095 P.R.China

Alien invasive species represent a severe risk to biodiversity and economy, as in the case of fire blight （Erwinia amylovora）, a bacterial disease that originated in North America, which may be released into new locations by means of fruit trade. On the basis of the knowledge of Erwinia amylovora＇s biophysical characteristics and environmental data, the geographic information system （GIS） has been applied to determine areas where Erwinia amylovora can potentially invade China. Temperature and precipitation, during the blossoming period, are considered to be two critical factors affecting the Erwinia amylovora＇s suitable climatic zones. This spatial modeling approach was validated from a case study in Europe, where the occurrence of Erwinia amylovora has been proven. The model prediction agreed with the occurrence of the bacteria recorded in Europe, and the same procedure has been applied to produce a potential establishment area in China＇s two preferential apple cultivation regions, Bohai Bay region and Huangtu Altiplano region. It has been found that areas belonging to the high-risk category are more or less the main apple producing areas, accounting for their great economic importance in China. This methodology provides an initial baseline for assessment, prevention, and management of alien species that may become invasive under certain environmental conditions. In addition, this modeling approach provides a tool for policy makers to use, in making decisions on management practices where alien species are involved.

关键词： biological invasions Erwinia amylovora GIS potential distribution risk assessment

potential geographical distribution of Anopheles gambiae worldwide under climate change

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Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity 2021年第2期3卷 125-130页

作者： Chao Li Yuan Gao Zhe Zhao Delong Ma Ruobing Zhou Jun Wang Qinfeng Zhang Qiyong Liu School of Public Health Shandong First Medical UniversityTaian 271016China State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious DiseasesNational Institute for Communicable Disease Control and PreventionChinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention(China CDC)Beijing 102206China Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center School of Public HealthShandong UniversityJinan 250012China

Background:Anopheles gambiae(An.gambiae)is considered the most effective malaria vector worldwide and is widely distributed in Africa.The purpose of this study is to determine the potential impact of climate change on An.gambiae and predict the present and future potential suitable habitat globally.Methods:In this study,environmental variables,global occurrence data of An.gambiae,and the maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)were used to evaluate the contribution of environmental factors and predict the habitat suitability of An.gambiae under the current and future scenarios.Results:Among all environmental variables,isothermality(Bio3,34.5%)contributed the most to An.gambiae distribution.Under current climate conditions,the potential suitable areas for An.gambiae are mainly located near the equator(approximately 30°N-30°S),with a total area of 16.58 million km2,including central and northern South America,a fraction of areas near the equator of North America,central and southern Africa,some tropical regions of southern Asia,and small areas of Oceania.The areas of potential suitable habitats would be reduced to varying degrees in future climate scenarios.Conclusions:potential suitable habitats for An.gambiae may not be limited to Africa.Necessary surveillance and preventive measures should be undertaken in high-risk regions,including those outside Africa,to monitor and control the spread of An.gambiae.

关键词： Anopheles gambiae potential distribution Future climate scenarios

potential distribution of Tausch's goatgrass(Aegilops tauschii Coss.) in China

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Potential distribution of Tausch's goatgrass(Aegilops tausch...

potential risk of colonization of Bulinus globosus in the mainland of China under climate change

作者：房锋 Wei Shouhui Huang Hongjuan Liu Weiwei 张朝贤 Key Laboratory of Weed and Rodent Biology and Management CAASInstitute of Plant ProtectionChinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences

[Objective]Tausch’s goatgrass(Aegilops tauschii Coss.) is a worst grass weed worldwide.Predicting the potential geographical distribution of Tausch’s goatgrass is important for effectively controlling its spread and ensuring winter wheat harvest.[Method]In this study,Maxent model was employed to predict the potential distribution of Tausch’s goatgrass in China.[Results]In China the suitable areas for Tausch’s goatgrass are mainly distributed in Henan,Hebei,Shandong,Jiangsu and Anhui provinces,southwestern Shanxi,Guanzhong Plain,the central and southern Ningxia,southeastern Gansu,and northern Hubei.[Conclusion]The distribution area of Tausch’s goatgrass in China is mainly distributed in 30°

关键词： Aegilops tauschiiCoss. Maxent potential distribution

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2022年第3期11卷 89-89页

作者： Xinyao Wang Saleh Juma Wei Li Mchanga Suleman Mtumweni Ali Muhsin Jian He Mingzhen He Dacheng Xu Jianfeng Zhang Robert Bergquist Kun Yang Jiangsu Institute of Parasitic Diseases Wuxi214064JiangsuChina 不详

Background: Bulinus globosus,the main intermediate snail host of Schistosoma haematobium.The increased contacts between Africa and China could even lead to large-scale dissemination of B.globosus in China.Temperature is the key factor affecting fresh-water snail transmission.This study predicted potential risk of colonization of B.globosus in the mainland of China under climate change.Methods: We investigated minimum and maximum temperatures for B.globosus eggs,juveniles and adult snails kept under laboratory conditions to find the most suitable range by pinpointing the median effective temperatures(ET50).We also assessed the influence of temperature on spawning and estimated the accumulated temperature(AT).The average air temperatures between 1955 and 2019 in January and July,the coldest and hottest months in China,respectively,were collected from national meteorological monitoring stations and investigated in a geographic information system(GIS)using empirical Bayesian Kriging to evaluate the theoretical possibility for distribution of B.globosus in southern China based on temperature.Results: The effective minimum temperature(ET50min)for eggs,juveniles,adult snails and spawning were 8.5,7.0,7.0,14.9℃,respectively,with the corresponding maximum values(ET50max)of 36.6,40.5,40.2 and 38.1℃.The AT was calculated at 712.1±64.9℃·d.In 1955,the potential B.globosus distribution would have had a northern boundary stretching from the coastal areas of Guangdong Province and Guangxi Autonomous Region to southern Yunnan Province.Since then,this line has gradually moved northward.Conclusions: Annual regeneration of B.globosus can be supported by the current climate conditions in the mainland of China,and a gradual expansion trend from south to north is shown in the study from 2015 to 2019.Thus,there is a potential risk of colonization of B.globosus in the mainland of China under climate change.

关键词： Bulinus globosus Colonization potential distribution Geographic information systems Climate change Schistosoma haematobium China

A theoretical exploration of the influencing factors for surface potential

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Chinese Physics B 2015年第6期24卷 629-636页

作者：刘新敏杨刚李航田锐李睿丁武泉袁若 Chongqing Key Laboratory of Soil Multi-scale Interfacial Process College of Resources and EnvironmentSouthwest University School of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering Southwest University

Although it has been widely used to probe the interracial property, dynamics, and reactivity, the surface potential remains intractable for directly being measured, especially for charged particles in aqueous solutions. This paper presents that the surface potential is strongly dependent on the Hofmeister effect, and the theory including ion polarization and ionic correlation shows significant improvement compared with the classical theory. Ion polarization causes a strong Hofmeister effect and further dramatic decrease to surface potential, especially at low concentration; in contrast, ionic correlation that is closely associated with potential decay distance overestimates surface potential and plays an increasing role at higher ionic concentrations. Contributions of ion polarization and ionic correlation are respectively assessed, and a critical point is detected where their contributions can be exactly counteracted. Ionic correlation can be almost neglected at low ionic concentrations, while ion polarization, albeit less important at high concentrations, should be considered across the entire concentration range. The results thus obtained are applicable to other interfacial processes.

关键词： Hofmeister effect ionic activity interfacial process potential distribution