Modeling impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of six endemic baobab species in Madagascar

作     者：Jun-Nan Wan Ndungu J.Mbari Sheng-Wei Wang Bing Liu Brian N.Mwangi Jean R.E.Rasoarahona Hai-Ping Xin Ya-Dong Zhou Qing-Feng Wang Jun-Nan Wan;Ndungu J.Mbari;Sheng-Wei Wang;Bing Liu;Brian N.Mwangi;Jean R.E.Rasoarahona;Hai-Ping Xin;Ya-Dong Zhou;Qing-Feng Wang

作者机构：Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty AgricultureWuhan Botanical GardenChinese Academy of SciencesWuhanHubei430074PR China State Key Laboratory of Systematic and Evolutionary BotanyInstitute of BotanyChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100093PR China University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100049PR China Sino-Africa Joint Research CenterChinese Academy of SciencesWuhanHubei430074PR China High School of Agricultural SciencesUniversity of AntananarivoP.O.Box 175Madagascar 

出 版 物：《Plant Diversity》 (植物多样性（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2021年第43卷第2期

页      面：117-124页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 0713[理学-生态学] 

基　　金：This study was supported by the funds from Sino-Africa Joint Research Center,CAS,China(Y323771W07 and SAJC201322) National Natural Science Foundation of China(31800176) 

主　　题：Madagascar Adansonia Climate change MaxEnt Potential distribution 

摘      要：Madagascar,a globally renowned biodiversity hotspot characterized by high rates of endemism,is one of the few remaining refugia for many plants and animal ***,global climate change has greatly affected the natural ecosystem and endemic species living in Madagascar,and will likely continue to influence species distribution in the *** is home to six endemic baobab(Adansonia spp.,Bombacoideae[Malvaceae])species(Adansonia grandidieri,***,***,***,***,***),which are remarkable and endangered *** study aimed to model the current distribution of suitable habitat for each baobab species endemic to Madagascar and determine the effect that climate change will have on suitable baobab habitat by the years 2050 and *** distribution was modeled using MaxEnt based on locality information of 245 occurrence sites of six species from both online database and our own field work.A total of seven climatic variables were used for the modeling *** present distribution of all six Madagascar s baobabs was largely influenced by temperature-related *** both expansion and contraction of suitable habitat are predicted for all species,loss of original suitable habitat is predicted to be *** the most widespread Madagascar baobab,***,more than 40%of its original habitat is predicted to be lost because of climate *** on these findings,we recommend that areas predicted to contract in response to climate change should be designated key protection regions for baobab conservation.