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AN ENSEMBLE FORECAST EXPERIMENT OF A landing typhoon

Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2012年第3期18卷 314-321页

作者：谭燕梁旭东 Shanghai typhoon Institute of the China Meteorological Administration(CMA) Laboratory of typhoon Forecast Technique/CMA Institute of Urban Meteorology of CMA

Based on the Global Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Tropical Cyclone Model(GRAPES-TCM),an ensemble forecast experiment was performed,in which typhoon Wipha during the period immediately prior to landfall was selected for the study and the breeding of growing mode(BGM) method was used to perturb the initial conditions of the vortex field and the environment *** results of the experiment indicate that each member had a different initial status in BGM processing and they show a reasonable spread among members along with the forecast *** in the large-scale field,thermodynamic structure,and spread among members took place when Wipha made *** steering effect of the large-scale field and the interaction between the thermodynamics and the dynamics resulted in different tracks of the ***,the forecast uncertainty *** summary,the ensemble mean did not perform as well as the control forecast,but the cluster mean provided some useful information,and performed better than the control in some *** position error was 34 km for 24 h forecast,153 km for 48 h forecast,and 191 km for 66 h *** strike probability chart qualitatively described the forecast uncertainty.

关键词： landing typhoon ensemble forecast GRAPES-TCM breeding of growing mode method cluster analysis

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A Study on a Heavy Rainfall Event Triggered by an Inverted typhoon Trough in Shandong Province

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2009年第4期23卷 468-484页

作者：赵宇崔晓鹏王建国 Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Henan Provincial Meteorological Bureau

A heavy rainfall event that occurred in Shandong Province in 26 28 August 2004 was caused mainly by typhoon Acre and cold air activities related to a westerly trough. The event was triggered by an inverted typhoon trough, which was closely associated with the intensification of the low-level southeasterly flow and the northward transport of heat and momentum in the periphery of the typhoon low. A numerical simulation of this event is performed using the nonhydrostatic mesoscale model MM5 with two-way interactive and triply-nested grids, and the structure of the inverted typhoon trough is studied. Furthermore, the formation and development mechanism of the inverted typhoon trough and a mesoscale vortex are discussed through a vorticity budget analysis. The results show that the heavy rainfall was induced by the strong convergence between the strong and weak winds within the inverted typhoon trough. Dynamic effects of the low-level jet and the diabatic heating of precipitation played an important role in the development of the inverted typhoon trough and the formation of the mesoscale vortex. The vorticity budget analysis suggests that the divergence term in the low troposphere, the horizontal advection term, and the convection term in the middle troposphere were main contributors to positive vorticity. Nonetheless, at the same pressure level, the effect of the divergence term and that of the adveetion term were opposite to each other. In the middle troposphere, the vertical transport term made a positive contribution while the tilting term made a negative contribution, and the total vorticity tendency was the net result of their counteractions. It is found that the change tendency of the relative vorticity was not uniform horizontally. A strong positive vorticity tendency occurred in the southeast of the mesoscale vortex, which is why the heavy rainfall was concentrated there. The increase of positive vorticity in the low （upper） troposphere was caused by horizontal

关键词： heavy rainfall event landing typhoon inverted typhoon trough vorticity budget

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