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Mid-summer surface air temperature and its internal variability over China at 1.5℃ and 2℃ global warming

Advances in Climate Change Research 2020年第3期11卷 185-197页

作者： YIN Shu-Yue WANG Tao HUA Wei MIAO Jia-Peng GAO Yong-Qi FU Yuan-Hai Daniela MATEI Evangelos TYRLIS CHEN Dong Joint Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Change Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu610225China Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Bjerknes Center for Climate ResearchBergen5006Norway Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg20146Germany

Recently,extremely hot summers occurred frequently across China,and the mean mid-summer surface air temperature(SAT)continuously broke the records of the past decades,causing huge social and economic *** global warming accelerates,these extremely hot summers will undoubtedly occur more ***,the issue of what will happen to the mid-summer SAT over China in the near future remains ***,we investigate the changes of mid-summer SAT and related internal variabilities over China at 1.5℃ and 2℃ global warming above preindustrial level by using the MPI-ESM Grand Ensemble *** results indicate that compared to the present-day(1986–2005),national averaged mid-summer SAT will increase by 1.1℃ and 2.0℃,in 1.5℃ and 2℃ warming scenarios *** means that the mid-summer SAT is projected to increase by 0.9℃ due to an additional 0.5℃ global warming,which is higher than the annual value(0.8℃)and almost two times the global warming ***,in the two warming targets,the increase in mid-summer SAT will be more enhanced over the northwestern part of *** addition,the extremely high monthly SAT would increase nationwide due to an additional 0.5℃ in global *** all areas,the Qinghai and Xinjiang provinces would experience the strongest increase in extremely high monthly *** is important to find that,from 1.5℃ to 2℃ global warming,changes of the internal variability of the mid-summer SAT differs across *** would decrease over some parts of western Northwest China,North China,Northeast China and the Tibetan ***,it would significantly increase over Qinghai,Sichuan,and northern parts of Inner *** a result,at 2℃ global warming,the increase of extreme SAT in Qinghai is caused by the synergistic effect of stronger warming rate and larger internal ***,the increase in Xinjiang province is mainly caused by the stronger local *** analysis suggests that we can effect

关键词： Mid-summer SAT internal variability China 1.5℃global warming 2℃global warming

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Projected Climate Change against Natural internal variability over China

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2015年第4期8卷 193-200页

作者： JIANG Jiang SUI Yue LANG Xian-Mei Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

The ability of 42 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) models in simulating the annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation over China is first examined by using their historical experiments for 1986–2005, and then 39 relatively reliable models are chosen to project temperature and precipitation changes against the natural internal variability over the country under the Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP) scenarios in the 21 st century. The result shows the temperature continuing to increase, especially in northern China. The annual warming for 2081–2099 relative to 1986–2005 over the whole of the country is larger than the background variability, with the multimodel median changes under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 being 9.9, 19.3, 22.8, and 35.9 times greater than one standard deviation of internal variability, respectively. The annual precipitation is projected to increase by 6.1%, 9.3%, 9.6%, and 16.2% for 2081–2099 relative to 1986–2005 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 respectively, while large changes with high model agreement only occur over the northern Tibetan Plateau and Northeast China, which is mainly due to the robust changes in winter and spring under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5.

关键词： temperature precipitation internal variability China CMIP5

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Influence of the Boundary Forcing on the internal variability of a Regional Climate Model

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American Journal of Climate Change 2016年第3期5卷 373-382页

作者： Kevin Sieck Daniela Jacob Climate Service Center Germany Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Hamburg Germany

The internal variability of a ten-member ensemble of the regional climate model REMO over Europe is investigated. It is shown that the annual cycle of internal variability behaves differently compared to earlier studies that focused on other regions. To gain better insight into the dependence of the internal variability on the boundary forcing variability, a circulation type classification is performed on the forcing data. It can be shown that especially in the winter season internal variability is dependent on the circulation type included in the boundary forcing, whereas in the summer season the level and pattern of internal variability is rather independent from the circulation type of the driving field. It is concluded that for Europe the internal variability of REMO in winter is governed by circulation patterns related to the North-Atlantic Oscillation, whereas in summer local processes play a bigger role.

关键词： Regional Climate Model internal variability Boundary Forcing Circulation Type Classification

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Impacts of major volcanic eruptions over the past two millennia on both global and Chinese climates:A review

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第1期67卷 61-78页

作者： Weiyi SUN Deliang CHEN Guonian LÜ Liang NING Chaochao GAO Renhe ZHANG Bin WANG Jian LIU Key Laboratory for Virtual Geographic Environment Ministry of EducationState Key Laboratory Cultivation Base of Geographical Environment Evolution of Jiangsu ProvinceJiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and ApplicationSchool of Geography ScienceNanjing Normal UniversityNanjing 210023China Regional Climate Group Department of Earth SciencesUniversity of GothenburgGothenburg 40530Sweden College of Environmental and Resource Science Zhejiang UniversityHangzhou 310058China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200437China Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Atmosphere-Ocean Research Center University of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHI 96825USA Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory for Numerical Simulation of Large Scale Complex Systems School of Mathematical ScienceNanjing Normal UniversityNanjing 210023China Open Studio for the Simulation of Ocean-Climate-Isotope Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao 266237China

Major volcanic eruptions(MVEs)have attracted increasing attention from the scientific *** studies have explored the climatic impact of MVEs over the past two ***,proxy-based reconstructions and climate model simulations indicate divergent responses of global and China’s regional climates to ***,we used multiple data from observations,reconstructions,simulations,and assimilations to summarize the historical facts of MVEs,the characteristics and mechanisms of their climatic impact,and directions for future *** reviewed volcanic datasets and determined intensive MVE periods;these periods corresponded to the years 530–700,1200‒1460,and 1600‒1840 *** tropical MVEs,a substantial cooling effect is observed throughout the globe and China on the interannual-interdecadal time scales but an inconsistent cooling magnitude is detected between reconstructions and *** the first summer after tropical MVEs,a decrease in global and monsoonal precipitation is *** reconstructions and simulations,an increased precipitation is seen for the Yangtze River Basin,while large uncertainties in precipitation changes are present for other regions of *** drought can be induced by frequent eruptions and volcanism superimposed on low solar irradiation and internal *** affect climate directly through the radiative effect and indirectly by modulating internal variability,such as the El Niño‒Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO).However,changes in the phase,amplitude,and periodicity of ENSO and AMO after MVEs and the associated mechanisms remain controversial,which could account for model-reconstruction ***,other internal variability,uncertainties in reconstruction methods and aerosol‒climate models,and climate background may also induce model-reconstruction *** gaps and directions for future research are also discussed.

关键词： Major volcanic eruption Climate variability Mechanism Past two millennia internal variability

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Causes and Predictability of the 2021 Spring Southwestern China Severe Drought

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第10期39卷 1766-1776页

作者： Yunyun LIU Zeng-Zhen HU Renguang WU Xing YUAN CMA Climate Studies Key Laboratory National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education&Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NOAACollege ParkMaryland 20740USA School of Earth Sciences Zhejiang UniversityHangzhou 310058China School of Hydrology and Water Resources Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

In the spring of 2021,southwestern China(SWC)experienced extreme drought,accompanied by the highest seasonal-mean temperature record since *** drought event occurred in the decaying phase of a La Niña event with negative geopotential height anomalies over the Philippine Sea,which is distinct from the historical ***,spring drought over SWC is often linked to El Niño and strong western North Pacific subtropical ***,we show that the extreme drought in the spring of 2021 may be mainly driven by the atmospheric internal variability and amplified by the warming ***,the evaporation increase due to the high temperature accounts for about 30%of drought severity,with the contributions of its linear trend portion being nearly 20%and the interannual variability portion being about 10%.Since the sea surface temperature forcing from the tropical central and eastern Pacific played a minor role in the occurrence of drought,it is a challenge for a climate model to capture the 2021 SWC drought beyond one-month lead times.

关键词： extreme spring drought Southwestern China precipitation evaporation warming trend internal variability predictability

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Shortened Duration of Global Warming Slowdowns with Elevated Greenhouse Gas Emissions

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2021年第2期35卷 225-237页

作者： Feng GAO Tongwen WU Jie ZHANG Aixue HU Gerald AMEEHL Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Beijing Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China China Meteorological Administration Training Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China National Center for Atmospheric Research PO Box 3000BoulderColorado 80307-3000USA

Continuous emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases(GHGs)and aerosols in the last 160 years have resulted in an increasing trend of global mean surface temperatures(GMSTs).Due to interactions with natural variability,rates of the combined anthropogenically and naturally induced warming trends are characterized by significant slowdowns and speedups on decadal ***,by analyzing observed and model-simulated data,we investigate how the duration of these episodes will change with different strengths of GHG and aerosol *** found that the duration of warming slowdowns can be more than 30 yr with a slower rate of anthropogenic emissions but would shorten to about 5 yr with a higher *** duration reduction depends on both the magnitude of the climate response to anthropogenic forcing and the strength of the internal ***,the warming slowdowns can still occur even towards the end of this century under high emissions scenarios but with significantly shortened duration.

关键词： global warming slowdown greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions internal variability

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Quantitative attribution of Northern Hemisphere temperatures over the past 2000 years

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2023年第2期17卷 632-641页

作者： Feng SHI Mingfang TING Zhengtang GUO Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment Institute of Geology and GeophysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS Center for Excellence in Life and Paleoenvironment Beijing 100044China Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia UniversityPalisadesNY 10964USA University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

Quantitative assessment of natural internal variability and externally forced responses of Northern Hemisphere(NH)temperatures is necessary for understanding and attributing climate change signals during past warm and cold ***,it remains a challenge to distinguish the robust internally generated variability from the observed ***,largeensemble(70 member)simulations,Energy Balance Model simulation,temperature ensemble reconstruction,and three dominant external forcings(volcanic,solar,and greenhouse gas)were combined to estimate the internal variability of NH summer(June–August)temperatures over the past 2000 years(1–2000 CE).Results indicate that the Medieval Climate Anomaly was predominantly attributed to centennial-scale internal oscillation,accounting for an estimated 104%of the warming *** contrast,the Current Warm Period is influenced mainly by external forcing,contributing up to 90%of the warming *** temperature variability offsets cooling by volcanic eruptions during the Late Antique Little Ice *** findings have important implications for the attribution of past climate variability and improvement of future climate projections.

关键词： Common Era internal variability Dark Ages Cold Period Medieval Climate Anomaly Current Warm Period

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The Super-large Ensemble Experiments of CAS FGOALS-g3

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第10期39卷 1746-1765,I0021-I0025页

作者： Pengfei LIN Bowen ZHAO Jilin WEI Hailong LIU Wenxia ZHANG Xiaolong CHEN Jie JIANG Mengrong DING Wenmin MAN Jinrong JIANG Xu ZHANG Yuewen DING Wenrong BAI Chenyang JIN Zipeng YU Yiwen LI Weipeng ZHENG Tianjun ZHOU State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Computer Network Information Center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China Group of Alpine Paleoecology and Human Adaptation(ALPHA) State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth SystemResources and Environment(TPESRE)Institute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100864China Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems(Ministry of Education) College of Earth and Environmental ScienceLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China

A super-large ensemble simulation dataset with 110 members has been produced by the fully coupled model FGOALS-g3 developed by researchers at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of *** is the first dataset of large ensemble simulations with a climate system model developed by a Chinese modeling *** simulation has the largest realizations up to now worldwide in terms of single-model initial-condition large *** member includes a historical experiment(1850-2014)and an experiment(2015-99)under the very high greenhouse gas emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenario(SSP5-8.5).The dataset includes monthly and daily temperature,precipitation,and other variables,requiring storage of 275 ***,the surface air temperature(SAT)and land precipitation simulated by the FGOALS-g3 super-large ensemble have been validated and *** ensemble can capture the response of SAT and land precipitation to external forcings well,and the internal variabilities can be *** availability of more than 100 realizations will help researchers to study rare events and improve the understanding of the impact of internal variability on forced climate changes.

关键词： large ensemble forced response internal variability climate change

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