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Evaluation of Two initialization schemes for Simulating the Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Lekima (2019)

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第9期37卷 987-1006页

作者： Donglei SHI Guanghua CHEN Ke WANG Xinxin BI Kexin CHEN Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Two different initialization schemes for tropical cyclone(TC)prediction in numerical models are evaluated based on a case study of Typhoon Lekima(2019).The first is a dynamical initialization(DI)scheme where the axisymmetric TC vortex in the initial conditions is spun up through the 6-h cycle runs before the initial forecast *** second scheme is a bogussing scheme where the analysis TC vortex is replaced by a synthetic Rankine *** show that although both initialization schemes can help improve the simulated rapid intensification(RI)of Lekima,the simulation employing the DI scheme(DIS)reproduces better the RI onset and intensification rate than that employing the bogussing scheme(BOG).Further analyses show the cycle runs of DI help establish a realistic TC structure with stronger secondary circulation than those in the control run and BOG,leading to fast vortex spinup and contraction of the radius of maximum wind(RMW).The resultant strong inner-core primary circulation favors precession of the midlevel vortex under the moderate vertical wind shear(VWS)and thus helps vortex alignment,contributing to an earlier RI ***,the decreased vertical shear and the stronger convection inside the RMW support the persistent RI of Lekima in *** contrast,the reduced VWS is not well captured and the inner-core convection is weaker and resides farther away from the TC center in BOG,leading to slower *** results imply that the DI effectively improves the prediction of the inner-core process,which is crucial to the RI forecast.

关键词： numerical simulation initialization scheme tropical cyclone intensity

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MJO ensemble prediction in BCC-CSM1.1(m)using different initialization schemes

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2016年第1期9卷 60-65页

作者： Ren Hong-Li Wu Jie Zhao Chong-Bo Cheng Yan-Jie Liu Xiang-Wen Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological Administration

The Madden–Julian Oscillation（MJO）is a dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability（ISV）and has prominent impacts on the climate of the tropics and *** the MJO using fully coupled climate system models is an interesting and important *** paper reports upon a recent progress in MJO ensemble prediction using the climate system model of the Beijing Climate Center,BCC-CSM1.1（m）;specifically,the development of three different initialization schemes in the BCC ISV/MJO prediction system,*** sets of 10-yr hindcasts were separately conducted with the three initialization *** results showed that the IMPRESS is able to usefully predict the MJO,but is sensitive to the initialization scheme used and becomes better with the initialization of *** addition,a new ensemble approach was developed by averaging the predictions generated from the different initialization schemes,helping to address the uncertainty in the initial values of the *** ensemble-mean MJO prediction showed significant improvement,with a valid prediction length of about 20 days in terms of the different criteria,i.e.,a correlation score beyond 0.5,a RMSE lower than 1.414,or a mean square skill score beyond *** study indicates that utilizing the different initialization schemes of this climate model may be an efficient approach when forming ensemble predictions of the MJO.

关键词： MJO initialization scheme ensemble prediction climate model

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