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Government L and Regulations and housing supply elasticity in Urban China

China & World Economy 2022年第4期30卷 122-148页

作者： Wenbin Huang Lingnan College Sun Yat-sen UniversityChina

This paper studies the effects of government land regulations(GLR)on housing supply elasticity in urban China.We first extend the theoretical framework of Saiz(2010),then use land transaction microdata,satellite-generated data,and the construction of instrumental variables to analyze the marginal effect of GLR,and finally calculate the housing supply elasticity caused by GLR.Our analysis finds that GLR is an important reason for the overall inelasticity of housing supply in 272 Chinese cities,which reduces housing supply elasticity from 1.457(elastic)to 0.872(inelastic).housing supply elasticity caused by GLR has declined the most in first-tier cities and the eastern regions.The marginal effect of land use regulation is greater than that of land allocation and supp!y regulations.The initial development level and natural geographic constraint of each city also matter in China's housing supply market.

关键词： China housing supply elasticity land allocation regulation land supply regulation land use regulation

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Crowding-in or Crowding-out:How Infrastructure Investment Affects Household Consumption

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China Finance and Economic Review 2024年第1期13卷 43-66页

作者： Zhiyu Yan Yufei Yuan Yi Xue School of International Business and Economics University of International Business and Economics

This paper constructs a dynamic model of household consumption decisions and accordingly designs empirical analyses to identify how infrastructure investment affects private consumption.The estimation results of provincial panel data reveal that infrastructure investment can not only indirectly promote household consumption through the income channel but also directly promote household consumption expansion through the expectations channel,with a significant"crowding-in"effect.However,the effect is significantly weaker in provinces with a lower housing supply elasticity,showing the"crowding-out"pattern through the wealth channel.Household survey data provide an explanation for individual heterogeneity.Infrastructure investment has a greater pushing effect on house prices in provinces with a lower housing supply elasticity.Rapid house price growth has significant"crowding-out"effects on the consumption of wealthy households.This not only significantly weakens the driving effect of infrastructure investment on aggregate household consumption,but also increases wealth inequality in the long term.This paper explains how infrastructure investment affects household consumption and the corresponding role played by house prices,providing empirical evidences for theoretical studies related to macro-regulatory policies in China.

关键词： infrastructure investment household consumption housing supply elasticity macro regulatory policies

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“挤入”还是“挤出”：基础设施投资对居民消费的影响

国民经济管理

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国民经济管理 2023年第11期

作者：闫芷毓袁宇菲薛熠

本文构建动态模型刻画居民的消费决策并进行经验估计，识别基础设施投资对居民消费的影响。基于省级宏观数据的分析结果表明，基础设施投资不仅能通过收入渠道间接促进居民消费，还能够通过预期渠道直接促进居民消费，存在显著的“挤入... 详细信息

本文构建动态模型刻画居民的消费决策并进行经验估计，识别基础设施投资对居民消费的影响。基于省级宏观数据的分析结果表明，基础设施投资不仅能通过收入渠道间接促进居民消费，还能够通过预期渠道直接促进居民消费，存在显著的“挤入”效应；但在住房供给弹性较低的省份，基础设施投资对居民消费的促进效果较弱，在财富渠道上存在“挤出”效应。基于微观家庭数据的分析发现，在住房供给弹性较低的省份，基础设施投资对房价有较强的推升效应，从而通过影响资产配置显著降低了富裕家庭的消费，这不仅对居民消费产生了负向的财富效应，而且还扩大了财富差距。本文的工作为中国宏观调控政策的相关理论研究提供了经验证据。

关键词：基础设施投资居民消费住房供给弹性宏观调控政策 infrastructure investment household consumption housing supply elasticity macroregulatory policies

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