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extreme precipitation detection ability of four high-resolution precipitation product datasets in hilly area:a case study in Nepal

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第3期15卷 390-405页

作者： Sunil Subba Yao-Ming Ma Wei-Qiang Ma Cun-Bo Han Land-Atmosphere Interaction and its Climatic Effects Group State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth SystemEnvironment and Resources(TPESER)Institute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China College of Atmospheric Science Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China National Observation and Research Station for Qomolongma Special Atmospheric Processes and Environmental Changes Dingri 858200China Kathmandu Center of Research and Education Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences Chinese Academy of SciencesIslamabad 45320Pakista

Given Nepal's vulnerability to extreme precipitation(EP),it is imperative to conduct a comprehensive analysis to comprehend the historical trends of such ***,acquiring precise precipitation data for EP remains challenging in mountainous countries like Nepal owing to the scarcity of densely gauged *** limitation impedes the dissemination of knowledge pertaining to EP variability events in *** current research on this topic is deficient for two main reasons:1)there is a lack of studies leveraging recently released high-resolution precipitation products to identify their EP detection capabilities,which further hinders the usability of those products in data-scarce regions like Nepal,and 2)most studies have focused on the characterisation of EP events in Nepal rather than their spatial and temporal *** address these issues,this study evaluated the EP detection capabilities of four high-resolution precipitation product datasets(PPDs)across Nepal from 1985 to *** datasets include the ERA5 Land reanalysis data,satellite-based precipitation data(PERSIANN_CCS_CDR and CHIRPS_V2.0)and a merged dataset(TPHiPr).We used various statistical and categorical indices to assess their ability to capture the spatial and temporal variability of EP *** annual EP events were characterised by 11 indices divided into frequency and intensity *** TPHiPr merged dataset offered a robust depiction of monthly precipitation estimates,achieving the highest critical success index,accuracy,probability of detection and a low false alarm ratio for daily precipitation detection of 0.1 mm in ***,the PERSIANN_CCS_CDR dataset exhibited poor *** PPDs showed increasing trends in EP ***,the TPHiPr dataset showcased those trends with fewer errors and stronger correlations for many frequency(R10mm,R20mm and R25mm)and intensity(RX1day,RX5day,PRCPTOT and R99p)*** results indicate that TPHiPr outperformed ot

关键词： extreme precipitation precipitation product Nepal TPHiPr ERA5 land PERSIANN_CCS_CDR CHIRPS_V2.0

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Construction of daily precipitation series and the observational characteristics of extreme precipitation in Tianjin,China during 1888-2022

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第1期15卷 52-61页

作者： Peng SI Qing-Xiang LI Xiao-Yang CHEN Min WANG Chuan-Jun LUO Tianjin Meteorological Information Center Tianjin Meteorological BureauTianjin 300074China Research Centerfor Ecology and Environment of Central Asia Chinese Academy of SciencesWulumuqi 830011China School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhai 528478China Key Laboratory of Tropical Amosphere-Ocean System Ministry of EducationZhuhai 528478China Shaoguan Meteorological Service Shaoguan 512028China

Given the difficulties in rescuing and ensuring the quality of long-term climate data,current studies on century-scale climate change are usually limited to annual and monthly data,resulting in the poor detection of extreme climate events and their changes before *** this study,we reconstructed a daily precipitation series for Tianjin from 15 September 1887 to 31 December 2022 on the basis of the most comprehensive daily precipitation records collected from the Tianjin Meteorological Archive,China,and in reference to the precipitation analysis results based on the datasets developed by the Climatic Research Unit Time-Series version 4.06,Global precipitation Climatology Centre and University of Delaware along with the application of various homogenisation methods for climate *** approach provides a complete and reliable century-long daily precipitation series for the study of regional or local extreme weather and climate *** reconstructed daily dataset reveals that the annual precipitation amount and R95 intensity in Tianjin during 1888-2022 lack significant trends and have values of 0.74±6.99 and-1.84±3.22 mm per decade,*** the annual and seasonal scales,the precipitation amount and R95 intensity,particularly those in autumn,have increased since the latter half of the 20th century relative to those in ***,the increase in precipitation amount and R95 intensity is relatively limited compared with that in atmospheric water vapour content due to surface warming,indicating the highly sensitive response of extreme precipitation events to *** addition,the estimates for the return periods of 5,10,20,50 and 100 years covering 1888-2022,1888-1950 and 1951-2022 depict that the intensity of heavy rain and above magnitude was highest in 1888-1950 and decreased in 1951-2022.

关键词： Over a century-long timescale Daily precipitation series extreme precipitation Return period

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Climate change attribution of the 2021 Henan extreme precipitation: Impacts of convective organization

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Science China Earth Sciences 2022年第10期65卷 1837-1846页

作者： Han QIN Wei YUAN Jun WANG Yang CHEN Panxi DAI Adam HSOBEL Zhiyong MENG Ji NIE Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesSchool of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China Aviation Meteorological Center Civil Aviation Administration of ChinaBeijing 100621China Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Department of Atmospheric Science School of Earth SciencesZhejiang UniversityHangzhou 310027China Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University

In this study, we investigate the climate attribution of the 21·7 Henan extreme precipitation event. A conditional storyline attribution method is used, based on simulations of the event with a small-domain high-resolution cloud-resolving model. Large-scale vertical motion is determined by an interactive representation of large-scale dynamics based on the quasigeostrophic omega equation, with dynamical forcing terms taken from observation-based reanalysis data. It is found that warming may lead to significant intensification of both regional-scale(10–14% K, depending on convective organization) and station-scale precipitation extremes(7–9% K^(-1)). By comparing clustered convection organized by a localized surface temperature anomaly and squall-line convection organized by vertical wind shear, we further explored how convective organization may modify precipitation extremes and their responses to warming. It is found that shear convective organization is much more sensitive to large-scale dynamic forcing and results in much higher precipitation extremes at both regional and station scales than unorganized convection is. The clustered convection increases station-scale precipitation only slightly during heavy precipitation events. For regional-scale extreme precipitation sensitivity, shear-organized convection has a larger sensitivity by 2–3% Kthan that of unorganized convection, over a wide temperature range, due to its stronger diabatic heating feedback. For the station-scale extreme precipitation sensitivity, no systemic dependence on convective organization is found in our simulations.

关键词： extreme precipitation Global warming Climate change attribution Convective organization Hourly precipitation

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A Newly-Discovered GPD-GEV Relationship Together with Comparing Their Models of extreme precipitation in Summer

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2008年第3期25卷 507-516页

作者：丁裕国程炳岩江志红 National Key Laboratory of Meteorological Diseases of Jiangsu Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044 Climate Center of Chongqing City Meteorological Bureau Chongqing 401147

It has been theoretically proven that at a high threshold an approximate expression for a quantile of GEV （Generalized extreme Values） distribution can be derived from GPD （Generalized Pareto Distribution）. Afterwards, a quantile of extreme rainfall events in a certain return period is found using L-moment estimation and extreme rainfall events simulated by GPD and GEV, with all aspects of their results compared. Numerical simulations show that POT （Peaks Over Threshold）-based GPD is advantageous in its simple operation and subjected to practically no effect of the sample size of the primitive series, producing steady high-precision fittings in the whole field of values （including the high-end heavy tailed）. In comparison, BM （Block Maximum）-based GEV is limited, to some extent, to the probability and quantile simulation, thereby showing that GPD is an extension of GEV, the former being of greater utility and higher significance to climate research compared to the latter.

关键词： Generalized Pareto Distribution Generalized extreme Value daily rainfall extreme precipitation rainstorm

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Fidelity of the APHRODITE Dataset in Representing extreme precipitation over Central Asia

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第12期37卷 1405-1416页

作者： Sheng LAI Zuowei XIE Cholaw BUEH Yuanfa GONG College of Atmospheric Science Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Using rain-gauge-observation daily precipitation data from the Global Historical Climatology Network(V3.25)and the Chinese Surface Daily Climate Dataset(V3.0),this study investigates the fidelity of the AHPRODITE dataset in representing extreme precipitation,in terms of the extreme precipitation threshold value,occurrence number,probability of detection,and extremal dependence index during the cool(October to April)and warm(May to September)seasons in Central Asia during 1961–*** distribution of extreme precipitation is characterized by large extreme precipitation threshold values and high occurrence numbers over the mountainous *** APHRODITE dataset is highly correlated with the gauge-observation precipitation data and can reproduce the spatial distributions of the extreme precipitation threshold value and total occurrence ***,APHRODITE generally underestimates the extreme precipitation threshold values,while it overestimates the total numbers of extreme precipitation events,particularly over the mountainous *** biases can be attributed to the overestimation of light rainfall and the underestimation of heavy rainfall induced by the rainfall distribution–based *** deficits are more evident for the warm season than the cool season,and thus the biases are more pronounced in the warm season than in the cool *** probability of detection and extremal dependence index reveal that APHRODITE has a good capability of detecting extreme precipitation,particularly in the cool season.

关键词： APHRODITE extreme precipitation Central Asia Xinjiang fidelity

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Mapping Natural Hazard Impacts on Road Infrastructure——The extreme precipitation in Baden-Württemberg, Germany, June 2013

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2014年第3期5卷 227-241页

作者： Sina Keller Andreas Atzl Institute of Regional Science/Institute of Urban and Regional Planning Karlsruhe Institute of TechnologyKaiserstraße 1276131 KarlsruheGermany

Infrastructures in Europe have been affected by impacts of extreme natural events with increasing frequency over the past decades. One of the most recent examples is the flooding that affected parts of Germany in June 2013. Global warming is expected to change patterns of climate-related extreme events affecting *** article presents an explanatory approach. Based on an observational design, causal connections between the occurrence and patterns of extreme events and related road infrastructure impacts are analyzed. The hazard mapping case study in the state of Baden-Wrttemberg combines traffic information and data on the June 2013 extreme precipitation in Germany. It examines the precipitation occurrence and road infrastructure impact characteristics in Baden-Wu¨ rttemberg and identifies spatiotemporal hazard patterns. The article suggests further research needs and fields of application for risk mapping in climate change adaptation research in Germany.

关键词： extreme precipitation Floods Germany Hazard patterns Landslides Road infrastructure

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The historical to future linkage of Arctic amplification on extreme precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere using CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第4期15卷 573-583页

作者： Jun LIU Xiao-Fan WANG Dong-You WU Xin WANG Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education College of Atmospheric SciencesLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China

Arctic warming played a dominant role in recent occurrences of extreme events over the Northern Hemisphere,but climate models cannot accurately simulate the *** a significant positive correlation(0.33-0.95)between extreme precipitation and Arctic amplification(AA)is found using observations and CMIP5/6 multi-model ***,CMIP6 models are superior to CMIP5 models in simulating the temporal evolution of extreme precipitation and *** to 14 optimal CMIP6 models,the maximum latitude of planetary waves and the strength of Northern Hemisphere annular mode(NAM)will increase with increasing AA,contributing to increased extreme precipitation over the Northern *** the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5,AA is expected to increase by 0.85℃ per decade while the maximum latitude of planetary waves will increase by 2.82°per ***,the amplitude of the NAM will increase by 0.21 hPa per decade,contributing to a rise in extreme precipitation of 1.17% per decade for R95pTOT and 0.86% per decade for R99pTOT by 2100.

关键词： Arctic amplification extreme precipitation CMIP5 CMIP6 Model evaluation Planetary waves Northern hemisphere annular mode

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Interdecadal Change in extreme precipitation over South China and Its Mechanism

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2009年第1期26卷 109-118页

作者：宁亮钱永甫 Department of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University Nanjing 210093

Based on the daily precipitation data taken from 17 stations over South China during the period of 1961-2003,a sudden change in summer extreme precipitation events over South China in the early 1990s along with the possible mechanism connected with the anomalies of the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula are *** results show that both the annual and summer extreme precipitation events have obvious interdecadal variations and have increased significantly since the early ***,the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula also have obvious interdecadal variations consistent with that of the extreme precipitation,and influence different months’ extreme precipitation,*** effects are achieved by the interdecadal increases of the strengthening convection over South China through the South China Sea Summer Monsoon.

关键词： extreme precipitation interdecadal change South China sensible heat flux latent heat flux

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Why was Pakistan extreme precipitation stronger in 2022 than in 2010?

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2023年第6期14卷 913-920页

作者： Xu YUAN Kun YANG Jing SUN Yan WANG Yan-Yi HE Mi-Jun ZOU Yao-Zhi JIANG Polar and Marine Research Institute College of Harbor and Coastal EngineeringJimei UniversityXiamen 361021China Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling Department of Earth System ScienceTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China National Tibetan Plateau Data Center State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth SystemResource and EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Institue of Geographic Science and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101China School of Environmental and Geographical Science Shanghai Normal UniversityShanghai 200234China Yangtze River Delta National Observatory of Wetland Ecosystem Shanghai Normal UniversityShanghai 200234China

In Pakistan,five continuous extreme precipitation events in the summer(July-August)of 2022 caused disastrous floods,depriving thousands of people's lives and ruining millions of *** tremendous disaster in Pakistan also happened in 2010 but with three concentrated extreme precipitation events in the middle of *** amount of Pakistan heavy daily precipitation in 2022 surpasses that in 2010 record,making it the strongest precipitation event ever *** comprehensively understand the causes of extreme precipitation in Pakistan,this study investigated the anomalies in atmospheric circulation and moisture contribution of 2010/2022 extreme precipitation and compared their *** results show that an atmospheric blocking over northern Europe in both 2022 and 2010 enhanced convection in Pakistan by transporting cold-dry air from the high-latitude region and benefiting warm-wet monsoonal air marching to *** employing a moisture track model,the main moisture sources for summer precipitation in Pakistan were *** is found that moisture contributions except from Eurasia were enhanced,causing extreme *** particular,enhanced moisture contribution from the southern Indian Ocean and the northern Indian continent in 2022 are more prominent than that in *** increased moisture contribution in 2010 was due to increased evaporation induced by warming sea surface in the Indian Ocean,while much richer moisture transport in 2022 was attributed to the enhanced cross-equatorial flow induced by the anomalous subtropical high in the Southern ***,attention should be paid to the role of subtropical high in the Southern Hemisphere in addition to those in Northern Hemisphere in understanding disastrous extreme precipitation events inPakistan.

关键词： extreme precipitation Moisture transport Moisture sources Pakistan

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High-Resolution Projections of Mean and extreme precipitation over China by Two Regional Climate Models

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第5期34卷 965-985页

作者： Zhiyu JIANG Zhan TIAN Guangtao DONG Laixiang SUN Peiqun ZHANG Erasmo BUONOMO Dongli FAN Shanghai Institute of Technology Shanghai 201400China Shanghai Climate Center Shanghai Meteorological ServiceShanghai 200030China School of Environmental Science and Engineering Southern University of Science and TechnologyShenzhen 518055China Key Laboratory of Cities'Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change in Shanghai China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China Department of Geographical Sciences University of MarylandCollege ParkMD 20742USA School of Finance and Management School of Oriental and African Studies of University of LondonL ondon WC1H 0XGUK Beijing Climate Center/National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EX 13PBUK

In this study, we employ two regional climate models(RCMs or RegCMs), which are RegCM4 and PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies), with a horizontal grid spacing of 25 km, to simulate the precipitation dynamics across China for the baseline climate of 1981–2010 and two future climates of 2031–2060 and 2061–2090. The global climate model(GCM)—Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth Systems(HadGEM2-ES) is used to drive the two RCMs. The results of baseline simulations show that the two RCMs can correct the obvious underestimation of light rain below 5 mm day^-1 and the overestimation of precipitation above 5 mm day^-1 in Northwest China and the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, as being produced by the driving GCM. While PRECIS outperforms RegCM4 in simulating annual precipitation and wet days in several sub-regions of Northwest China, its underperformance shows up in eastern China. For extreme precipitation, the two RCMs provide a more accurate simulation of continuous wet days(CWD) with reduced biases and more realistic spatial patterns compared to their driving GCM. For other extreme precipitation indices, the RCM simulations show limited benefit except for an improved performance in some localized regions. The future projections of the two RCMs show an increase in the annual precipitation amount and the intensity of extreme precipitation events in most regions. Most areas of Southeast China will experience fewer number of wet days, especially in summer, but more precipitation per wet day(≥ 30 mm day^-1). By contrast, number of wet days will increase in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and some areas of northern China. The increase in both the maximum precipitation for five consecutive days and the regional extreme precipitation will lead to a higher risk of increased flooding. The findings of this study can facilitate the efforts of climate service institutions and government agencies to improve climate services and to make climate-smart decisions

关键词： climate change extreme precipitation dynamical downscaling regional climate models(RCMs) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment(CORDEX)

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