High-Resolution Projections of Mean and Extreme Precipitation over China by Two Regional Climate Models

作     者：Zhiyu JIANG Zhan TIAN Guangtao DONG Laixiang SUN Peiqun ZHANG Erasmo BUONOMO Dongli FAN Zhiyu JIANG;Zhan TIAN;Guangtao DONG;Laixiang SUN;Peiqun ZHANG;Erasmo BUONOMO;Dongli FAN

作者机构：Shanghai Institute of TechnologyShanghai 201400China Shanghai Climate CenterShanghai Meteorological ServiceShanghai 200030China School of Environmental Science and EngineeringSouthern University of Science and TechnologyShenzhen 518055China Key Laboratory of Cities'Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change in ShanghaiChina Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China Department of Geographical SciencesUniversity of MarylandCollege ParkMD 20742USA School of Finance and ManagementSchool of Oriental and African Studies of University of LondonL ondon WC1H 0XGUK Beijing Climate Center/National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Met Office Hadley CentreExeter EX 13PBUK 

出 版 物：《Journal of Meteorological Research》 (气象学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2020年第34卷第5期

页      面：965-985页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 0707[理学-海洋科学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0815[工学-水利工程] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0816[工学-测绘科学与技术] 0824[工学-船舶与海洋工程] 0825[工学-航空宇航科学与技术] 

基　　金：Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFA0606204) National Natural Science Foundation of China(51761135024 and 41671113) UK–China Research and Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP)China as part of the Newton Fund(P106409) Social Development Project of Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality(19DZ1201500) 

主　　题：climate change extreme precipitation dynamical downscaling regional climate models(RCMs) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment(CORDEX) 

摘      要：In this study, we employ two regional climate models(RCMs or RegCMs), which are RegCM4 and PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies), with a horizontal grid spacing of 25 km, to simulate the precipitation dynamics across China for the baseline climate of 1981–2010 and two future climates of 2031–2060 and 2061–2090. The global climate model(GCM)—Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth Systems(HadGEM2-ES) is used to drive the two RCMs. The results of baseline simulations show that the two RCMs can correct the obvious underestimation of light rain below 5 mm day^-1 and the overestimation of precipitation above 5 mm day^-1 in Northwest China and the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, as being produced by the driving GCM. While PRECIS outperforms RegCM4 in simulating annual precipitation and wet days in several sub-regions of Northwest China, its underperformance shows up in eastern China. For extreme precipitation, the two RCMs provide a more accurate simulation of continuous wet days(CWD) with reduced biases and more realistic spatial patterns compared to their driving GCM. For other extreme precipitation indices, the RCM simulations show limited benefit except for an improved performance in some localized regions. The future projections of the two RCMs show an increase in the annual precipitation amount and the intensity of extreme precipitation events in most regions. Most areas of Southeast China will experience fewer number of wet days, especially in summer, but more precipitation per wet day(≥ 30 mm day^-1). By contrast, number of wet days will increase in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and some areas of northern China. The increase in both the maximum precipitation for five consecutive days and the regional extreme precipitation will lead to a higher risk of increased flooding. The findings of this study can facilitate the efforts of climate service institutions and government agencies to improve climate services and to make climate-smart decisions