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Socio-economic vulnerability level in the Jeneberang watershed in Gowa Regency,South Sulawesi Province,Indonesia

Regional Sustainability 2024年第1期5卷 69-79页

作者： Andi Rachmat ARFADLY Hazairin ZUBAIR MAHYUDDIN Andang Suryana SOMA Graduate School Hasanuddin UniversityMakassar90245Indonesia Faculty of Agriculture Hasanuddin UniversityMakassar90245Indonesia

Jeneberang watershed is vital,particularly for people living in Gowa Regency(South Sulawesi Province,Indonesia),who benefit from its many *** and floods occur every year in the Jeneberang watershed,so it is imperative to understand the socio-economic vulnerability of this *** research aims to identify the vulnerability level of the Jeneberang watershed so that the government can prioritize areas with high vulnerability level and formulate effective strategies to reduce these the ***,this study was conducted in 12 districts located in the Jeneberang *** primary data were collected from questionnaires completed by community members,community leaders,and various stakeholders,and the secondary data were from the Landsat satellite imagery in 2020,the Badan Push Statistic of Gowa Regency,and some governmental *** socio-economic vulnerability variables were determined using the Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis(MCDA)method,and each variable was weighted and analyzed using the Geographical Information System(GIS).The study reveals that the levels of socio-economic vulnerability are affected by variables such as population density,vulnerable groups(disabled people,elderly people,and young people),road network and settlement,percentage of poor people,and productive land area in the Jeneberang ***,all of the 12 districts in the Jeneberang watershed are included in the medium vulnerability level,with the mean percentage of socio-economic vulnerability around 50.92%.The socio-economic vulnerability of Bajeng,Pallangga,and Somba Opu districts is categorized at high level,the socio-economic vulnerability of Bungaya,Parangloe,and Tombolo Pao districts is classified as medium level,and the remaining 6 districts(Barombong,Bontolempangan,Bontomarannu,Manuju,Parigi,and Tinggimoncong)are ranked as low socio-economic *** study can help policy-makers to formulate strategy that contributes t

关键词： Socio vulnerability economic vulnerability Population density Vulnerable groups Road network and settlement Productive land area Jeneberang watershed

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economic vulnerability of Mining City——A Case Study of Fuxin City,Liaoning Province,China

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Chinese Geographical Science 2009年第3期19卷 211-218页

作者： LI He ZHANG Pingyu CHENG Yeqing Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology Chinese Academy of Sciences Changchun 130012 China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

The economic system of mining city is of typical vulnerability characteristics that can be manifested by its high economic sensitivity and lack of response capacity to the gradual depletion of regional mineral resources. Taking Fuxin City of Liaoning Province as a case, this paper established an economic vulnerability assessment method integrating BP neural network with vulnerability index, then carried out an economic vulnerability assessment of Fuxin during 1989-2006. The results indicate that: 1) Affected by the gradual depletion of regional mineral resources, the economic development of Fuxin had kept high economic sensitivity from 1995 to 2001, and the response capacity to cope with and adapt to the impacts of the perturbation of mineral resources was weak and relatively lag. The evolution of economic vulnerability can be divided into three stages: in 1989-1994, the economic vulnerability of Fuxin City decreased slowly; in 1995-2001, the beginning stage of economic transformation, the economic vulnerability of Fuxin City went up rapidly; in 2002-2006, the economic vulnerability of Fuxin City descended and showed a trend to be stable. 2) The influence of economic sensitivity on Fuxin′s economic vulnerability is more evident than that of response capacity. 3) The decreasing supply of mineral resources and the simple industrial structure are main factors leading to the economic sensitivity of Fuxin. 4) The improvement of economic response capacity of Fuxin has typical characteristics of input-driven growth, and external assistance is of great importance to the rapid improvement of economic response capacity of Fuxin. And 5) the change from the simple industrial structure to diversified one of Fuxin is still unaccomplished, and the contribution of non-coal-based industry to local economic development is relatively limited.

关键词： mining city economic vulnerability economic transformation Fuxin City

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A study on urban economic vulnerability evaluation system

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2015年第10期25卷 1264-1278页

作者： YUAN Haihong NIU Fangqu GAO Xiaolu Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS Beijing 100101 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China School of Architectural Civil Engineering and Environment Ningbo University Ningbo 315211 Zhejiang China

Chinese cities face high and rapidly increasing exposure to disasters. Reducing disaster vulnerability is a direct and effective countermeasure for disaster management and risk reduction, which requires first and foremost objective assessment of the vulnerabilities of societies and economies. Assessment of economic vulnerability is a significant step in risk evaluation, a prerequisite for effective disaster prevention planning and an important base for emergency management. This paper develops a model for assessing economic vulnerability, which takes into account of the size of enterprises, the vulnerability and importance of various industrial sectors and economic density. Based on the model, this paper develops an urban economic vulnerability evaluation system and applies it to Haidian District in Beijing, the results help identify where in its 647 blocks are highly and very highly vulnerable in terms of economies, and it provides useful and practical information for pre-disaster prevention planning, disaster preparedness and emergency management. The economic vulnerability assessment model and the system developed in this study make it possible for the government to quickly evaluate the general economic vulnerability and identify the specific vulnerable areas, making contribution to disaster management information system and decision support system.

关键词： economic vulnerability assessment model evaluation system risk management Haidian District inBeijing

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Do credit constraints affect households'economic vulnerability?Empirical evidence from rural China

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Journal of Integrative Agriculture 2021年第9期20卷 2552-2568页

作者： PENG Yan-ling Yanjun REN LI Hou-jian College of economics Sichuan Agricultural UniversityChengdu 611130P.R.China Department of Agricultural Markets Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition EconomiesHalle(Saale)06120Germany

Poverty alleviation is still one of the major challenges in developing countries,especially in transitional economy like *** the perspective of anti-poverty,this paper examines the impact of formal credit constraints(FCCs)and informal credit constraints(IFCCs)on economic vulnerability(EV)using the data from the China Household Income Project(CHIP)survey for 2013(CHIPs 2013)of rural *** potential endogeneity problem of credit constraints(CCs)is addressed by applying the control function approach within an ordered probit *** results show that both FCCs and IFCCs have a robust positive and significant impact on the EV of rural households and that the impact of FCCs is greater than that of *** identify the potential mechanisms through which CCs affect EV,the seemingly unrelated regressions are used and the potential intercorrelation among these mechanisms is *** find that the impact of CCs on EV is partly mediated by health,trust,per capita financial assets and per capita income,whereby health and per capita income contribute to most of the total indirect ***,policies focus on supply-side and demand-side to improve credit accessibility could reduce rural households'EV,especially through its positive effect on health and per capita income.

关键词： credit constraints economic vulnerability causal mediation mechanisms rural China

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economic vulnerability of mining city:A case study of Fuxin city

Economic vulnerability of mining city:A case study of Fuxin ...

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中国地理学会百年庆典

作者： LI He ZHANG Pingyu CHENG Yeqing (Northeast Institute of Geography and Agricultural Ecology,CAS,Changchun 130012, China)

＜正＞The economic system of mining city is of typical vulnerability characteristics that can be manifested by its high economic sensitivity and lack of response capacity to the gradual depletion of regional mineral *** Fuxin as the case city,this paper established a economic vulnerability assessment method integrating BP neural network and vulnerability index,then carried out an economic vulnerability assessment of Fuxin during 1989-2006,the results indicate that:①Affected by the gradual depletion of regional mineral resources,the economic development of Fuxin had kept high economic sensitivity from 1995 to 2001,the response capacity to cope with and adapt to the impacts of the perturbation was weak and relatively lag,the evolution of economic vulnerability can be divided into three variation stages;②The influence of economic sensitivity on Fuxin economic vulnerability is more evident than the influence of response capacity;③The decreasing supply of mineral resources and the simple industrial structure are main factors leading to the economic sensitivity of Fuxin;④The improvement of economic response capacity of Fuxin is of typical input-driven growth characteristics,external assistance is of great importance to rapid improvement of economic response capacity of Fuxin;⑤Diversification of simple industrial structure of Fuxin is still unaccomplished,the contribution of non-coal-based industry to local economic development is relatively limited.

关键词： Mining city economic vulnerability economic transformation Fuxin city

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Study on China＇s economic vulnerability to Energy Import Using Decomposition Method

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Journal of Systems Science and Information 2009年第1期7卷 77-87页

作者： Haibo Wang Gang Wu Ying Fan Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research Institute of Policy and Management Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100190 China Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research Beijin9 Institute of Technology Beijing 100081 China School of Management and economics Beijing Institute of Technology Beijing 100081 China

vulnerability means the degree to which that a system is susceptible to suffer damage. This paper focuses on the economic vulnerability to risk of energy import by employing ratio of net energy import to GDP as indicator, and decomposes the vulnerability change into effects of energy import, structure and intensity in order to find out key factors that influence economic security to energy import. Decomposition analysis on China indicates that effect of rising energy import takes more than 90 percent of total vulnerability change during the last 10 years, along with insignificant effect of structural change and intensity decline. International analysis on cross- section data of net energy importers also presents the positive relationship between external energy dependence and economic vulnerability. However, results of America show that long-term effect of energy intensity is much larger than China from 1954 to 2007, which is 70.8% of its total vulnerability change. Experience from developed countries confirms the necessary and validity of improving energy efficiency on depressing economic vulnerability to energy import, which provides lessons for the energy development of China.

关键词： economic vulnerability energy import decomposition analysis

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Assessment of economic Damage Risks from Typhoon Disasters in Guangdong, China

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Journal of Resources and Ecology 2012年第2期3卷 144-150页

作者：殷洁吴绍洪戴尔阜中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所北京100101 中国科学院研究生院北京100049

Guangdong is a developed province in China, but suffers from frequent typhoon disasters which cause great economic loss. Quantitative regional risk assessment of typhoon disasters is important for disaster prevention and mitigation. According to direct economic loss and typhoon intensity information, we established a typhoon disaster loss rate curve using data from 1954 to 2008. Based on GIS spatial module, the economic vulnerabilities of different intensity typhoons were calculated for 98 counties in Guangdong Province. Different intensity typhoon landing frequencies in Guangdong were also calculated, and used to indicate typhoon disaster probability. A risk assessment model was established to assess economic loss risk under different intensity typhoons in Guangdong. The results show that economic loss risk caused by typhoon is more than 10 thousand million CNY; according to typhoon intensity grade, economic risk is up to 10.467, 14.429, 7.753 and 13.591 thousand million CNY for slight, light, medium and severe typhoons, respectively. The Pearl River Delta is the highest risk region, especially Guangzhou, Dongguan, Shenzhen, Zhongshan and Zhuhai. Risk value decreases from Pearl River coastal outfall to the inland in a radial pattern. Inland areas far from coastal counties have lower risk, and the risk value is less than 50 million CNY. When typhoon intensity increases from slight to medium, the risk in western is higher than in eastern parts, but when typhoons become to severe, the risk value in eastern Guangdong part is higher than in the west.

关键词： typhoon disaster economic vulnerability probability risk assessment Guangdong Province

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全球金融周期、经济韧性与宏观审慎政策

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世界经济导刊 2024年第4期

作者：刘璐温兴春王晋斌石广平

基于坚持推进金融高水平对外开放的背景，本文研究全球金融周期进入衰退期对中国宏观经济的影响，以及中国经济韧性和宏观审慎政策在其中发挥的作用。首先，本文通过构建一个包含全球银行、国内银行及国内企业的理论模型进行机制分析，... 详细信息

基于坚持推进金融高水平对外开放的背景，本文研究全球金融周期进入衰退期对中国宏观经济的影响，以及中国经济韧性和宏观审慎政策在其中发挥的作用。首先，本文通过构建一个包含全球银行、国内银行及国内企业的理论模型进行机制分析，结果表明：以全球不确定性为代表的全球金融周期衰退（即不确定性增加）对中国宏观经济将造成负面影响，中国经济韧性提升能够缓解该负向影响，更严格的宏观审慎政策可以进一步缓解该负向影响。其次，基于微观数据的面板固定效应模型的检验结果表明：全球不确定性对企业产出有显著负面影响，中国经济韧性提升能够缓解该影响，包括贷款价值比、贷款损失准备要求、针对特定交易的税收要求、区分不同货币的储备要求等宏观审慎政策更严格能够进一步缓解该影响。基于宏观数据的分位数向量自回归（QVAR）模型结果表明：全球不确定性冲击会给中国经济周期带来负面影响，当中国经济韧性处于较低分位数时影响更大，而更严格的宏观审慎政策能够缓解上述负向影响。最后，基于研究结果本文提出政策建议，长期应更加关注通过提升经济韧性来应对全球金融周期的不利冲击；短期应侧重宏观审慎政策的合理使用。

关键词：全球金融周期全球不确定性经济脆弱性经济韧性宏观审慎政策 global financial cycle global uncertainty economic vulnerability economic resilience macroprudential policy

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国际禁运联盟、供应链中断风险与我国宏观经济易损性

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世界经济导刊 2023年第5期

作者：崔连标翁世梅莫建雷宋马林夏炎

美国近期试图构建联盟以不断强化对我国的技术封锁，而芯片作为高科技的核心载体，是中美竞争的主战场。文章首次考虑美国构建对华禁运联盟背景下中国面临的芯片供应链中断风险，定量测算芯片进口中断对中国宏观经济的易损性及其影响边... 详细信息

美国近期试图构建联盟以不断强化对我国的技术封锁，而芯片作为高科技的核心载体，是中美竞争的主战场。文章首次考虑美国构建对华禁运联盟背景下中国面临的芯片供应链中断风险，定量测算芯片进口中断对中国宏观经济的易损性及其影响边界。文章构建了全球13个区域、12个部门的动态可计算一般均衡模型，模拟不同芯片禁运联盟对世界主要经济体的经济冲击影响。研究发现：（1）美国单独实施芯片禁运对中国影响有限，但如果将韩国等经济体纳入其联盟中，中国经济将会遭受显著的负面冲击。（2）在芯片进口完全中断的极端情景下，中国当年实际GDP下降0.49%，出口减少8.02%，就业下降0.18%，失业人数增加约136.35万人。（3）受贸易转移效应影响，美国主导的对华芯片禁运联盟对联盟内外的经济影响具有显著的异质性，即联盟内部将会受损，联盟外部将会受益。（4）芯片禁运联盟对其内部成员的经济影响也具有显著的非对称性，如果韩国等经济体加入该联盟，其遭受的经济和就业损失将显著高于美国。（5）中国对芯片产业的补贴政策有助于减轻美国芯片禁运对国内经济造成的负面影响。文章首次揭示了芯片进口中断对中国经济的影响边界，为中国应对美国的高科技打压提供决策参考。

关键词：芯片贸易禁运联盟供应链中断经济易损性动态可计算一般均衡模型 chip trade embargo alliance supply chain disruption economic vulnerability dynamic computable general equilibrium model

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