Assessment of Economic Damage Risks from Typhoon Disasters in Guangdong, China

作     者：殷洁 吴绍洪 戴尔阜 YIN Jie;WU Shaohong;DAI Erfu

作者机构：中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所北京100101 中国科学院研究生院北京100049 

出 版 物：《Journal of Resources and Ecology》 (资源与生态学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2012年第3卷第2期

页      面：144-150页

核心收录：

学科分类：083002[工学-环境工程] 0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 08[工学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：Key Project of Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (GrantNo.KZCX2-YW-Q03-01) National Key Technology R&D Program (Grant No.2008BAK50B06 and 2008BAK50B05) 

主　　题：typhoon disaster economic vulnerability probability risk assessment Guangdong Province 

摘      要：Guangdong is a developed province in China, but suffers from frequent typhoon disasters which cause great economic loss. Quantitative regional risk assessment of typhoon disasters is important for disaster prevention and mitigation. According to direct economic loss and typhoon intensity information, we established a typhoon disaster loss rate curve using data from 1954 to 2008. Based on GIS spatial module, the economic vulnerabilities of different intensity typhoons were calculated for 98 counties in Guangdong Province. Different intensity typhoon landing frequencies in Guangdong were also calculated, and used to indicate typhoon disaster probability. A risk assessment model was established to assess economic loss risk under different intensity typhoons in Guangdong. The results show that economic loss risk caused by typhoon is more than 10 thousand million CNY; according to typhoon intensity grade, economic risk is up to 10.467, 14.429, 7.753 and 13.591 thousand million CNY for slight, light, medium and severe typhoons, respectively. The Pearl River Delta is the highest risk region, especially Guangzhou, Dongguan, Shenzhen, Zhongshan and Zhuhai. Risk value decreases from Pearl River coastal outfall to the inland in a radial pattern. Inland areas far from coastal counties have lower risk, and the risk value is less than 50 million CNY. When typhoon intensity increases from slight to medium, the risk in western is higher than in eastern parts, but when typhoons become to severe, the risk value in eastern Guangdong part is higher than in the west.