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A Novel Fractional dengue Transmission Model in the Presence of Wolbachia Using Stochastic Based Artificial Neural Network

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Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences 2024年第5期139卷 1217-1238页

作者： Zeshan Faiz Iftikhar Ahmed Dumitru Baleanu Shumaila Javeed Department of Mathematics COMSATS University IslamabadIslamabad45550Pakistan Department of Mathematics Cankaya UniversityAnkara06790Turkey Institute of Space Sciences Magurele-Bucharest077125Romania Department of Medical Research China Medical University HospitalChina Medical UniversityTaichung40402Taiwan Department of Computer Science and Mathematics Lebanese American UniversityBeirut135053Lebanon Department of Mathematics Mathematics Research CenterNear East UniversityNicosia/Mersin99138Turkey

The purpose of this research work is to investigate the numerical solutions of the fractional dengue transmission model(FDTM)in the presence of Wolbachia using the stochastic-based Levenberg-Marquardt neural network(LM-NN)technique.The fractional dengue transmission model(FDTM)consists of 12 compartments.The human population is divided into four compartments;susceptible humans(S_(h)),exposed humans(E_(h)),infectious humans(I_(h)),and recovered humans(R_(h)).Wolbachia-infected and Wolbachia-uninfected mosquito population is also divided into four compartments:aquatic(eggs,larvae,pupae),susceptible,exposed,and infectious.We investigated three different cases of vertical transmission probability(η),namely when Wolbachia-free mosquitoes persist only(η=0.6),when both types of mosquitoes persist(η=0.8),and when Wolbachia-carrying mosquitoes persist only(η=1).The objective of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of Wolbachia in reducing dengue and presenting the numerical results by using the stochastic structure LM-NN approach with 10 hidden layers of neurons for three different cases of the fractional order derivatives(α=0.4,0.6,0.8).LM-NN approach includes a training,validation,and testing procedure to minimize the mean square error(MSE)values using the reference dataset(obtained by solving the model using the Adams-Bashforth-Moulton method(ABM).The distribution of data is 80% data for training,10% for validation,and,10% for testing purpose)results.A comprehensive investigation is accessible to observe the competence,precision,capacity,and efficiency of the suggested LM-NN approach by executing the MSE,state transitions findings,and regression analysis.The effectiveness of the LM-NN approach for solving the FDTM is demonstrated by the overlap of the findings with trustworthy measures,which achieves a precision of up to 10^(-4).

关键词： Wolbachia dengue neural network vertical transmission mean square error Levenberg-Marquardt

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Role of doxycycline in the treatment of dengue infection: An open-label, randomized, controlled, pilot trial

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2024年第4期17卷 160-165页

作者： Banothu Vinod Kumar Kajal Kamboj Ashok Kumar Pannu Ashok Kumar Yadav Mandip Bhatia Atul Saroch Department of Internal Medicine PGIMER ChandigarhIndia Department of Experimental Medicine&Biotechnology PGIMER ChandigarhIndia

Objective:To measure the effect of doxycycline on inflammatory marker[IL-6,TNF-α,ferritin and C reactive protein(CRP)]levels in patients with dengue infection.Methods:A single-centre,open-label,parallel-group randomized controlled trial was done in PGIMER Chandigarh from June 2021 to October 2022.Patients were randomized using a simple randomization process into two groups:the doxycycline treatment group(n=35)and the control group(n=34).Patients in the treatment group were given oral doxycycline 100 mg twice daily for five days along with standard treatment,whereas patients in the control group received only standard treatment.The objective was to measure the effect of doxycycline on inflammatory markers in dengue infection.Results:On comparative analysis at day 5,there was a statistically significant reduction in the median values of ferritin and CRP in cases compared to the control group(ferritin:P=0.006 and CRP:P=0.006).No significant reduction was noted in the levels of IL-6 and TNF-α.Conclusions:Doxycycline treatment led to a reduction of inflammatory markers in dengue infection.

关键词： dengue Cytokine Doxycycline Serum ferritin C reactive protein

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Evaluation of remote radiologist-interpreted point-of-care ultrasound for suspected dengue patients in a primary health care facility in Colombia

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2023年第5期12卷 45-57页

作者： Lyda Osorio Iñigo Prieto Daniela Zuluaga Deliana Ropero Neelesh Dewan Jonathan D.Kirsch Epidemiology and Population Health Research Group(GESP) School of Public HealthUniversidad del ValleCaliColombia Department of Radiology School of MedicineUniversidad del ValleCaliColombia Division of General Internal Medicine Department of Internal MedicineUniversity of Minnesota Medical SchoolMinneapolisMN 55455USA Department of Internal Medicine University of Miami Miller School of MedicineMiamiFLUSA

Background Early identification of plasma leakage may guide treatment decisions in dengue patients.This study evaluated the value of point-of-care ultrasound(POCUS)to detect plasma leakage and predict hospitalization or referral to a higher level of care in suspected dengue patients under routine conditions at a primary care facility in Colombia.Methods We conducted a cohort study between April 2019 and March 2020 in a primary care hospital in Cali,Colombia.We prospectively included and followed 178 patients who were at least 2 years old with fever of less than 10 days and clinician-suspected dengue.A trained general practitioner performed a standardized POCUS protocol.Images were quality-rated and overread by an expert radiologist,and her results and those of the general practitioner were compared using the Kappa index.Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with plasma leakage at enrollment and explore its prognostic value regarding hospital admission or referral to a higher level of care.Results Half(49.6%)POCUS images were of suitable quality to be interpreted.The proportion of plasma leakage reported by the radiologist was 85.1%(95%CI:78.6-90.2%)and 47.2%by the study physician(Kappa=0.25,95%CI:0.15-0.35).The most frequent ultrasound findings were ascites(hepatorenal 87.2%,splenorenal 64%,or pelvic 21.8%)and gallbladder wall thickening(10.5%).Plasma leakage was higher in subjects with thrombocytopenia(aOR=4,95%CI:1.3-12.1)and lower in patients 30-59 years old(aOR=0.1,95%CI:0.0-0.4)than in those 18 years old or younger.POCUS evidence of plasma leakage(aOR=8.2,95%CI:2.2-29.9),thrombocytopenia(aOR=6.3,95%CI:2.4-16.0)and pulse pressure(aOR=1.1,95%CI:1.07-1.2)were associated with hospital admission or referral to a higher level of care.Conclusions Ultrasound is useful to detect plasma leakage in primary care and,challenges remain to guarantee high-quality images and diagnostic accuracy,for which a standardized dengue POCUS protocol and training program is needed.

关键词： dengue Ultrasound Plasma leakage Primary care Colombia

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The patterns and driving forces of dengue invasions in China

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2023年第2期12卷 36-50页

作者： Zhe Zhao Yujuan Yue Xiaobo Liu Chuanxi Li Wei Ma Qiyong Liu Department of Epidemiology School of Public HealthCheeloo College of MedicineShandong University44 Wenhua RoadLixia DistrictJinan250012People’s Republic of China State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and PreventionChinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention155 Changbai RoadChangping DistrictBeijing102206People’s Republic of China Department of Vector Control School of Public HealthCheeloo College of MedicineShandong University44 Wenhua RoadLixia DistrictJinan250012People’s Republic of China Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center Jinan250012People’s Republic of China

Background Global connectivity and environmental change pose continuous threats to dengue invasions from worldwide to China.However,the intrinsic relationship on introduction and outbreak risks of dengue driven by the landscape features are still unknown.This study aimed to map the patterns on source-sink relation of dengue cases and assess the driving forces for dengue invasions in China.Methods We identified the local and imported cases(2006–2020)and assembled the datasets on environmental conditions.The vector auto-regression model was applied to detect the cross-relations of source-sink patterns.We selected the major environmental drivers via the Boruta algorithm to assess the driving forces in dengue outbreak dynamics by applying generalized additive models.We reconstructed the internal connections among imported cases,local cases,and external environmental drivers using the structural equation modeling.Results From 2006 to 2020,81,652 local dengue cases and 12,701 imported dengue cases in China were reported.The hotspots of dengue introductions and outbreaks were in southeast and southwest China,originating from South and Southeast Asia.Oversea-imported dengue cases,as the Granger-cause,were the initial driver of the dengue dynamic;the suitable local bio-socioecological environment is the fundamental factor for dengue epidemics.The Bio8[odds ratio(OR)=2.11,95%confidence interval(CI):1.67–2.68],Bio9(OR=291.62,95%CI:125.63–676.89),Bio15(OR=4.15,95%CI:3.30–5.24),normalized difference vegetation index in March(OR=1.27,95%CI:1.06–1.51)and July(OR=1.04,95%CI:1.00–1.07),and the imported cases are the major drivers of dengue local transmissions(OR=4.79,95%CI:4.34–5.28).The intermediary effect of an index on population and economic development to local cases via the path of imported cases was detected in the dengue dynamic system.Conclusions dengue outbreaks in China are triggered by introductions of imported cases and boosted by landscape features and connectivity.Our research will contribute to developing nature-b

关键词： dengue Invasion Imported case Landscape Driving forces China

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Meteorological indicators of dengue epidemics in non-endemic Northwest Argentina

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2022年第4期7卷 823-834页

作者： Javier Armando Gutierrez Karina Laneri Juan Pablo Aparicio Gustavo Javier Sibona Departamento de Física-FCE-Universidad Nacional de Salta SaltaArgentina Grupo de Física Estadística e Interdisciplinaria CONICETCentro Atòmico Bariloche-CNEASan Carlos de BarilocheRío NegroArgentina Instituto de Investigaciones en Energía no Convencional(INENCO)Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas(CONICET)-Universidad Nacional de Salta Av.Bolivia 51004400SaltaArgentina Simon A.Levin Mathematical Computational and Modeling Sciences Center Arizona State UniversityPO Box 871904TempeAZ85287-1904USA IFEG-CONICET and Fa.M.A.F.-Universidad Nacional de Cordoba CordobaArgentina

In the last two decades dengue cases increased significantly throughout the world,giving place to more frequent outbreaks in Latin America.In the non-endemic city of San Ramòn de la Nueva Orán,located in Northwest Argentina,large dengue outbreaks alternate with several years of smaller ones.This pattern,as well as the understanding of the underlying mechanisms,could be essential to design proper strategies to reduce epidemic size.We develop a stochastic model that includes climate variables,social structure,and mobility between a non-endemic city and an endemic area.Climatic variables were input of a mosquito population ecological model,which in turn was coupled to a meta-population,spatially explicit,epidemiological model.Human mobility was included into the model given the high border crossing to the northern country of Bolivia,where dengue transmission is sustained during the whole year.We tested different hypotheses regarding people mobility as well as climate variability by fitting numerical simulations to weekly clinical data reported from 2009 to 2016.After assessing the number of imported cases that triggered the observed outbreaks,our model allows to explain the observed epidemic pattern.We found that the number of vectors per host and the effective reproductive number are proxies for large epidemics.Both proxies are related with climate variability such as rainfall and temperature,opening the possibility to test these meteorological variables for forecast purposes.

关键词： Mathematical modelling dengue Outbreak Mosquitoes population

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The practicality of Malaysia dengue outbreak forecasting model as an early warning system

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2022年第3期7卷 510-525页

作者： Suzilah Ismail Robert Fildes Rohani Ahmad Wan Najdah Wan Mohamad Ali Topek Omar School of Quantitative Sciences Universiti Utara Malaysia UUM SintokKedahMalaysia Centre for Marketing Analytics and Forecasting Lancaster UniversityUnited Kingdom Medical Entomology Unit Institute for Medical ResearchNational Institute of HealthMinistry of Health MalaysiaMalaysia Vector Borne Disease Sector Disease Control DivisionMinistry of Health MalaysiaMalaysia

dengue is a harmful tropical disease that causes death to many people.Currently,the dengue vaccine development is still at an early stage,and only intervention methods exist after dengue cases increase.Thus,previously,two scientific experimental field studies were conducted in producing a dengue outbreak forecasting model as an early warning system.Successfully,an Autoregressive Distributed Lag(ADL)Model was developed using three factors:the epidemiological,entomological,and environmental with an accuracy of 85%;but a higher percentage is required in minimizing the error for the model to be useful.Hence,this study aimed to develop a practical and cost-effective dengue outbreak forecasting model with at least 90%accuracy to be embedded in an early warning computer system using the Internet of Things(IoT)approach.Eighty-one weeks of time series data of the three factors were used in six forecasting models,which were Autoregressive Distributed Lag(ADL),Hierarchical Forecasting(Bottom-up and Optimal combination)and three Machine Learning methods:(Artificial Neural Network(ANN),Support Vector Machine(SVM)and Random Forest).Five error measures were used to evaluate the consistency performance of the models in order to ensure model performance.The findings indicated Random Forest outperformed the other models with an accuracy of 95%when including all three factors.But practically,collecting mosquito related data(the entomological factor)was very costly and time consuming.Thus,it was removed from the model,and the accuracy dropped to 92%but still high enough to be of practical use,i.e.,beyond 90%.However,the practical ground operationalization of the early warning system also requires several rain gauges to be located at the dengue hot spots due to localized rainfall.Hence,further analysis was conducted in determining the location of the rain gauges.This has led to the recommendation that the rain gauges should be located about 3e4 km apart at the dengue hot spots to ensure the accuracy of the rainfall data to be include

关键词： dengue rainfall Machine learning Early warning system IoT

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Recent advances on pathogenesis,diagnosis,prevention,immunological aspects,and vectors of dengue:A review

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine 2023年第8期13卷 325-338页

作者： Mahesh Chandra Sahu Rakesh Kumar Samantaray Aditi Pal Sanghamitra Pati Division of Medical Entomology ICMR-Regional Medical Research CentreChandrasekharpurBhubaneswar-751023OdishaIndia ICMR-Regional Medical Research Centre ChandrasekharpurBhubaneswar-751023OdishaIndia

dengue is a vector-borne disease caused by the dengue virus(DENV)of family Flaviviridae.dengue fever is common in both developed and developing countries.Globally,approximately 400 million cases of dengue fever are reported annually,resulting in approximately 22000 fatalities.dengue cases in India have progressively increased in the last decade.In recent years,substantial progress has been made in understanding various aspects of dengue,including its pathogenesis,diagnosis,prevention strategies,immunological responses,and the role of vectors in its transmission.The transmission of a positive RNA virus occurs through Aedes mosquitoes,specifically Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.This virus is associated with a wide spectrum of symptoms,ranging from mild undifferentiated fever to severe hemorrhagic fever and shock,posing a potential threat to human health.There are 4 types of antigenically distinct dengue serotypes(DENV-1 to DENV-4)and among them,DENV-2 is more lethal and extremely severe.To overcome the severity of dengue,Dengvaxia is administered to children 9 to 16 years old with evidence of previous dengue infection.The diagnosis of dengue is carried out by ELISA-based non-structural protein(NS1)and immunoglobulin tests.However,there are no specific biomarkers to identify severe disease progression.Climatic factors and temperature play an important role in complex interaction among host,vector,and virus to manifest the severity of dengue.There is a need for the refinement of climate-based disease forecasting models in India to effectively control the spread of dengue.The mosquito repellent should be used periodically to kill or repel the Aedes mosquito to prevent the spread of dengue in humans.

关键词： dengue Aedes mosquitoes Insecticide NS1 Immunoglobulin

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Importance of Wolbachia-mediated biocontrol to reduce dengue in Bangladesh and other dengue-endemic developing countries

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Biosafety and Health 2023年第2期5卷 69-77页

作者： Abdullah Al Noman Debashish Das Zinnatun Nesa Md.Tariquzzaman Fariha Sharzana Md.Rakibul Hasan Baizid Khoorshid Riaz Golam Sharower Mohammad Meshbahur Rahman Department of Genetic Engineering&Biotechnology Jashore University of Science and TechnologyJashore 7408Bangladesh Directorate General of Health Services Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh Ministry of Health and Family WelfareDhaka 1212Bangladesh Center for Medical Biotechnology Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh Ministry of Health and Family WelfareDhaka 1212Bangladesh Department of Public Health and Hospital Administration National Institute of Preventive and Social Medicine(NIPSOM)Dhaka 1212Bangladesh Department of Entomology National Institute of Preventive and Social Medicine(NIPSOM)Dhaka 1212Bangladesh Department of Biostatistics National Institute of Preventive and Social Medicine(NIPSOM)Dhaka 1212Bangladesh

Mosquito-borne diseases,particularly dengue and chikungunya have become global threats,infecting millions of people worldwide,including developing countries of Southeast Asia and Latin America.Bangladesh,like many other developing countries,is experiencing frequent dengue outbreaks.This article,therefore,critically discussed the current status of dengue disease,vector control approaches,and the need for Wolbachia-mediated intervention in Bangladesh and other dengue-endemic developing countries.In this narrative review study,rel-evant literature was searched from major databases and search engines such as PubMed,BanglaJol,World Health Organization(WHO)/European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control(ECDC)and Google Scholar.Considering the selection criteria,our search strategies finally involved 55 related literature for further investigation.Findings showed that current vector control strategies could not render protection for an extended period,and the disease burden of arboviruses is increasing.The impoverished outbreak preparedness,urbanization,climate change,and less efficacy of existing control methods have made people susceptible to vector-borne diseases.Hence,Wolbachia,a naturally occurring endosymbiont of many mosquito species that can potentially limit virus transmission through several host genetic alterations,would be a potential alterna-tive for dengue prevention.We also critically discussed the challenges and prospects of Wolbachia-based den-gue control in developing countries.The evidence supporting the efficacy and safety of this intervention and its mechanism have also been elucidated.Empirical evidence suggests that this introgression method could be an eco-friendly and long-lasting dengue control method.This review would help the policymakers and health experts devise a scheme of Wolbachia-based dengue control that can control mosquito-borne diseases,partic-ularly dengue in Bangladesh and other developing countries.

关键词： Wolbachia-based biocontrol Mosquitoes-borne diseases dengue Biological control Developing countries

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Association between serum albumin levels and disease severity in adult patients with dengue: A 7-year retrospective cohort study in China's Mainland

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2023年第5期16卷 204-212,I0001页

作者： Changtai Wang Huiqin Yang Jielan Xu Jian Wang Lingzhai Zhao Wenxin Hong Fuchun Zhang Department of Infectious Disease Guangzhou Eighth People's HospitalGuangzhou Medical UniversityGuangzhouChina Department of Clinical Laboratory Guangzhou Eighth People's HospitalGuangzhou Medical UniversityGuangzhouChina Department of Infectious Disease Guangzhou Red Cross HospitalJinan UniversityGuangzhouChina

Objective:To identify the association between serum albumin levels and disease severity among adult patients with dengue in China's Mainland.Methods:This retrospective cohort study analyzed the data of adult patients(aged≥18 years)hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed dengue in a tertiary center for infectious diseases from 2013 to 2019 in China's Mainland.Serum albumin levels were estimated and compared between patients with severe dengue and non-severe dengue.Additionally,the association between serum albumin levels and severe dengue was evaluated using a generalized linear model[relative risks(RR)].Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the potential predictors of severe dengue.Results:Overall,1568 patients were included in this study.Of these patients,34(2.17%)developed severe dengue.The median serum albumin levels were significantly lower in patients with severe dengue than that in those with non-severe dengue(33 g/L vs.37 g/L,Pdengue.Serum albumin levels(OR 1.303,95%CI 1.161-1.462,Pdengue.The area under the curve for serum albumin levels to distinguish severe dengue was 0.787.Conclusions:Lower serum albumin levels were significantly associated with disease severity in adult patients with dengue.Hypoalbuminemia on admission resulted in at least a four-fold increased risk of severe dengue.

关键词： dengue Severe dengue Serum albumin Hypoalbuminemia Prediction

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Modeling the impact of awareness programs on the transmission dynamics of dengue and optimal control

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International Journal of Biomathematics 2023年第2期16卷 31-57页

作者： Jingyuan Li Hui Wan Mengfeng Sun Jiangsu Key Laboratory for NSLSCS School of Mathematical Sciences Nanjing Normal University Nanjing210023P.R.China Department of Mathematics Purdue University West LafayetteIN 47906USA

In this work,we first propose a mathematical model to study the impact of awareness programs on dengue transmission.The basic reproduction number Ro is derived.The existence and stability of equilibria are investigated.The uniform persistence is established when Ro is larger than one.Our results suggest that awareness programs have significant impacts on dengue transmission dynamics although they cannot affect Ro.When o is less than one,awareness programs can shorten the prevailing time effectively.When Ro is larger than one,awareness programs may destabilize the unique interior equilibrium and a stable periodic solution appears due to Hopf bifurcation.In particular,we find that the occurrence of Hopf bifurcation depends not only on the intensity of awareness programs but also on the level of Ro.Besides,large fuctuations in the number of infected individuals caused by the stable periodic solution may bring pressure on limited medical resources.Therefore,different from intuitive ideas,blindly increasing the intensity of awareness programs is not necessarily conducive to control the transmission of dengue.The decision-making department should decide to adopt different publicity strategies according to the current level of Ro.Finally,we consider the optimal control problem of the model and find the optimal control strategy corresponding to awareness programs by Pontryagin's Maximum Principle.The results manifest that the optimal control strategy can effectively mitigate the transmission of dengue.

关键词： dengue awareness programs Hopf bifurcation uniform persistence optimal control

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