检索结果-南通市图书馆

AN ENSEMBLE FORECAST EXPERIMENT OF A LANDING TYPHOON

Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2012年第3期18卷 314-321页

作者：谭燕梁旭东 Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorological Administration(CMA) Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique/CMA Institute of Urban Meteorology of CMA

Based on the Global Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Tropical Cyclone model(GRAPES-TCM),an ensemble forecast experiment was performed,in which Typhoon Wipha during the period immediately prior to landfall was selected for the study and the breeding of growing mode(BGM) method was used to perturb the initial conditions of the vortex field and the environment *** results of the experiment indicate that each member had a different initial status in BGM processing and they show a reasonable spread among members along with the forecast *** in the large-scale field,thermodynamic structure,and spread among members took place when Wipha made *** steering effect of the large-scale field and the interaction between the thermodynamics and the dynamics resulted in different tracks of the ***,the forecast uncertainty *** summary,the ensemble mean did not perform as well as the control forecast,but the cluster mean provided some useful information,and performed better than the control in some *** position error was 34 km for 24 h forecast,153 km for 48 h forecast,and 191 km for 66 h *** strike probability chart qualitatively described the forecast uncertainty.

关键词： landing typhoon ensemble forecast GRAPES-TCM breeding of growing mode method cluster analysis

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

欢迎您,

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：

通借通还

欢迎您,

建议与咨询 留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案： 新增检索档案 确定 取消

请选择收藏分类： 新增自定义分类 确定 取消

通借通还

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：