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Investigating impacts of different building contents on the post-earthquake evacuation time using an agent-based model with considering turning behavior

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Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration 2024年第4期23卷 939-955页

作者： Bao, Yu School of Civil Engineering and Architecture Wuhan University of Technology Wuhan China Sanya Science and Education Innovation Park of Wuhan University of Technology Sanya China

Accurate assessment of crowd evacuation inside the post-earthquake environment is critical from many perspectives, but this issue receives much less attention compared to the seismic losses of structural and non-structural components. This could be attributed to the fact that post-earthquake evacuation analysis is complex due to the interaction between human behavior and the actual built environment induced by different building contents. This study attempts to tackle this problem by investigating the impacts of different building contents on post-earthquake evacuation time by using an agent-based model that considers turning behavior. To this end, the agent-based model is first described, including: properties of the agent-based model with turning behavior, key aspects in its formulation considering different evacuation stages, and influence of different building contents (namely, debris from partition walls and ceiling systems, and various types of equipment) on the agent’s behavior. Subsequently, a school building is used as a benchmark problem to validate the model without earthquake, and the findings indicate that the agent-based model can match the real safety drill results reasonably well. After the validation, the school building is subsequently designed in accordance with modern seismic design codes, and the influence of debris and equipment on post-earthquake evacuation time is quantitatively studied using a suite of pulse-type ground motions as input. based on this case study, recommendations are made for structural and architectural designers in an effort to reduce the potential evacuation time. Specifically, debris induced by partition walls or ceiling systems should be controlled as it has the greatest impact on the total evacuation time.

关键词： seismic fragility evacuation agent-based model route choice built environment

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An agent-based model of agricultural land expansion in the mountain forest of Timor Island,Indonesia

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Journal of Mountain Science 2024年第7期21卷 2263-2282页

作者： PUJIONO Eko SADONO Ronggo IMRON Muhammad Ali SUTOMO JANUAR Hedi Indra KUSWANDI Relawan KURNIAWAN Hery HADI Etik Erna Wati SAPUTRA Muhammad Hadi HIDAYAH Izhamil HUMAIDA Nida SUKMAWATI Jalma Giring HADIYAN Yayan NUGROHO Agung Wahyu HANI Aditya Research Center for Ecology and Ethnobiology National Research and Innovation Agency Republic of Indonesia(BRIN)Jl.Raya Jakarta-Bogor KM.46CibinongBogor 16911Indonesia Faculty of Forestry Gadjah Mada UniversityJl.Agro No.1Yogyakarta 55281Indonesia

The Mutis-Timau Forest Complex,located on Timor Island,Indonesia,is a mountainous tropical forest area that gradually decreases due to deforestation and forest *** modelling studies based on patterns indicate that deforestation primarily occurs at lower elevations and near the boundaries of forests and settlements,often associated with shifting cultivation by local *** study adopts a process-based modelling approach,specifically the agent-based model,to simulate land changes,particularly farmers'expansion of agricultural land around the Mutis mountain *** underlying concept of this agent-based approach is the interaction between the human and environmental ***,representing the human system,interact with the land,which represents the environmental system,through land use decision-making *** research was conducted in the Community Forest of the Timor Tengah Utara District,one of the sites within the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex with the highest deforestation *** use change simulations were performed using agent-based modelling from 1999 to 2030,considering the socio-economic conditions of farmers,spatial preferences,land use decisions,and natural *** results revealed that the agricultural area increased by 14%under the Business as Usual scenario and 5%under the Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation scenario,compared to the initial agricultural area of 245 *** probability of farmers deciding to extend agricultural activities was positively associated with the number of livestock maintained by farmers and the size of the village ***,the likelihood of farmers opting for agricultural extensification decreased with an increase in the area of private land and the farmer's *** findings are crucial for the managers of the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex and other relevant stakeholders,as they aid in arranging actions to combat deforestation,designing proper fore

关键词： Agricultural land expansion Simulation agent-based model Farmer Deforestation Mountainous tropical forest

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agent-based model of land system:Theory,application and modelling framework

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2020年第10期30卷 1555-1570页

作者： DAI Erfu MA Liang YANG Weishi WANG Yahui YIN Le TONG Miao Lhasa Plateau Ecosystem Research Station Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and ModelingInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China School of Geography and Planning Sun Yat-Sen UniversityGuangzhou 510275China

Land change science has become an interdisciplinary research direction for understanding human-natural coupling *** a process-oriented modelling approach,agent based model(ABM)plays an important role in revealing the driving forces of land change and understanding the process of land *** paper starts from three aspects:The theory,application and modeling framework of ***,we summarize the theoretical basis of ABM and introduce some related *** we expound the application and development of ABM in both urban land systems and agricultural land systems,and further introduce the case study of a model on Grain for Green Program in Hengduan Mountainous region,*** the basis of combing the ABM modeling protocol,we propose the land system ABM modeling framework and process from the perspective of *** terms of urban land use,ABM research initially focused on the study of urban expansion based on landscape,then expanded to issues like urban residential separation,planning and zoning,ecological functions,*** terms of agricultural land use,ABM application presents more diverse and individualized *** topics include farmers’behavior,farmers’decision-making,planting systems,agricultural policy,*** to traditional models,ABM is more complex and difficult to generalize beyond specific context since it relies on local knowledge and ***,due to its unique bottom-up model structure,ABM has an indispensable role in exploring the driving forces of land change and also the impact of human behavior on the environment.

关键词： land system land use land change science land change model agent-based model modeling framework

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The Impact of Competition on Analysts’Forecasts:A Simple agent-based model

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Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2020年第6期33卷 1980-1996页

作者： ZHANG Jin XIONG Xiong AN Yahui FENG Xu College of Management and Economics Tianjin UniversityTianjin 300072China School of Economics Tianjin University of CommerceTianjin 300134China College of Management and Econonics Tianjin UniversityTianjin 300072China

This paper builds an agent-based model to study the impact of analyst competition on analyst *** strategies(a catering strategy and a pressure strategy)are used to model analysts conflicts of interest between listed corporations and institutional *** finding suggests that the relationship between competition and analyst optimism is ***-level competition generates more analyst unbiased ***,the condition of no competition or high-level competition generates more analyst optimistic *** empirical test also confirms that analysts issue less biased earnings forecasts under the condition of low-level competition.

关键词： agent-based model analyst forecasts conflicts of interest

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A multi-scale agent-based model of infectious disease transmission to assess the impact of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions:The COVID-19 case

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Journal of Safety Science and Resilience 2021年第4期2卷 199-207页

作者： Luyao Kou Xinzhi Wang Yang Li Xiaojing Guo Hui Zhang Institute of Public Safety Research Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084PR China School of Computer Engineering and Science Shanghai UniversityShanghai 200444PR China

Mathematical and computational models are useful tools for virtual policy experiments on infectious disease *** models fail to provide flexible and rapid simulation of various epidemic scenarios for policy *** paper establishes a multi-scale agent-based model to investigate the infectious disease propagation between cities and within a city using the knowledge from person-to-person *** the model,the contact and infection of individuals at the micro scale where an agent represents a person provide insights for the interactions of agents at the meso scale where an agent refers to hundreds of *** cities with frequent population movements in China are taken as an example and actual data on traffic patterns and demographic parameters are *** scenarios for dynamic propagation of infectious disease with no external measures are compared versus the scenarios with vaccination and non-pharmaceutical *** model predicts that the peak of infections will decline by 67.37%with 80%vaccination rate,compared to a drop of 89.56%when isolation and quarantine measures are also in *** results highlight the importance of controlling the source of infection by isolation and quarantine throughout the *** also study the effect when cities implement inconsis-tent public health interventions,which is common in practical *** on our results,the model can be applied to COVID-19 and other infectious diseases according to the various needs of government agencies.

关键词： Public health Transmission risk agent-based model Epidemic simulation Policy assessment

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The organization of societal conflicts by pavement ants Tetramorium caespitum： an agent-based model of amine-mediated decision making

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Current Zoology 2016年第3期62卷 277-284页

作者： Kevin M. HOOVER Andrew N. BUBAK Isaac J. LAW Jazmine D. W. YAEGER Kenneth J. RENNER John G. SWALLOW Michael J. GREENE Department of Integrative Biology University of Colorado Denver Denver CO 80217-3364 USA Neuroscience Program University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus Aurora CO 80045 USA Department of Biology University of South Dakota Vermillion South Dakota 57069 USA

Ant colonies self-organize to solve complex problems despite the simplicity of an individual ant＇s brain. Pavement ant Tetramorium caespitum colonies must solve the problem of defending the ter- ritory that they patrol in search of energetically rich forage. When members of 2 colonies randomly interact at the territory boundary a decision to fight occurs when： 1） there is a mismatch in nest- mate recognition cues and 2） each ant has a recent history of high interaction rates with nestmate ants. Instead of fighting, some ants will decide to recruit more workers from the nest to the fighting location, and in this way a positive feedback mediates the development of colony wide wars. In ants, the monoamines serotonin （5-HT） and octopamine （OA） modulate many behaviors associated with colony organization and in particular behaviors associated with nestmate recognition and ag- gression. In this article, we develop and explore an agent-based model that conceptualizes how in- dividual changes in brain concentrations of 5-HT and OA, paired with a simple threshold-based de- cision rule, can lead to the development of colony wide warfare. model simulations do lead to the development of warfare with 91% of ants fighting at the end of 1 h. When conducting a sensitivity analysis, we determined that uncertainty in monoamine concentration signal decay influences the behavior of the model more than uncertainty in the decision-making rule or density. We conclude that pavement ant behavior is consistent with the detection of interaction rate through a single timed interval rather than integration of multiple interactions.

关键词： agent-based model aggressive behavior ants decision making monoamines octopamine serotonin.

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基于agent-based model的住房市场演化问题研究

基于agent-based model的住房市场演化问题研究

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中国系统工程学会第十八届学术年会

作者：邓琳闫妍朱晓武李晓腾中国科学院大学中丹学院中国科学院大学管理学院中国政法大学商学院中国科学院大学理论物理研究所

住房市场是一个复杂系统,本文利用复杂系统中的agent-based model研究方法,研究如果社会中个体拥有的财富存在差异,那么,居民对居住地的选择偏好导致的正常搬家行为,最终是否会使城市内部出现不同收入群体在空间上的隔离,并进一步拉大... 详细信息

住房市场是一个复杂系统,本文利用复杂系统中的agent-based model研究方法,研究如果社会中个体拥有的财富存在差异,那么,居民对居住地的选择偏好导致的正常搬家行为,最终是否会使城市内部出现不同收入群体在空间上的隔离,并进一步拉大贫富差距。研究表明,在没有政策干预的情况下,经济隔离现象是住房商品化发展到一定程度后的必然结果。

关键词：房地产市场 agent-based model 经济隔离基尼系数

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AN agent-based POPULATION model FOR CHINA

AN AGENT-BASED POPULATION MODEL FOR CHINA

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Computer and Computing Technologies in Agriculture——First IFIP TC 12 International Conference(CCTA2007) Volume I

作者： Zhongxin Chen Einar Holm Huajun Tang Kalle Mkil Wenjuan Li Shenghe Liu Key Laboratory of Resource Remote Sensing and Digital Agriculture Ministry of Agriculture Institute of Agriculture Resources®ional Planning Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Kiruna Spatial modelling Centre Umea University Institute of Geographical Science&Natural Resources Research

Human is a crucial factor responsible for local and large scale environmental change and is a key factor in rural *** simulating and predicting population change and its spatial distribution is of great interests to environmental scientists as well as social *** this paper,we introduced the development of a spatial-explicit agent-based population model for China based on a prototype from SVERIGE *** model was used to predict the population in *** validation result shows that agent-based model performances well in population prediction in China.

关键词： agent-based model SVERIGE Population Prediction China

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Dynamics of Land Use/Land Cover Considering Ecosystem Services for a Dense-Population Watershed based on a Hybrid Dual-Subject agent and Cellular Automaton modeling Approach

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Engineering 2024年第6期37卷 182-195页

作者： Yutong Li Yanpeng Cai Qiang Fu Xiaodong Zhang Hang Wan Zhifeng Yang Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watersheds Institute of Environmental and Ecological EngineeringGuangdong University of TechnologyGuangzhou 510006China School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering Northeast Agricultural UniversityHarbin 150030China School of Environmental Science and Engineering Shandong UniversityQingdao 266000China

Land use/land cover represents the interactive and comprehensive influences between human activities and natural conditions,leading to potential conflicts among natural and human-related issues as well as among *** study introduced economic standards for farmers.A hybrid approach(CA-ABM)of cellular automaton(CA)and an agent-based model(ABM)was developed to effectively deal with social and land-use synergic issues to examine human–environment interactions and projections of land-use conversions for a humid basin in south *** attributes and socioeconomic data were used to analyze land use/land cover and its drivers of *** major modules of the CA-ABM are initialization,migration,assets,land suitability,and land-use change *** estimates of the factors influencing the urban land-use conversion probability were captured using parameters based on a spatial logistic regression(SLR)***,multicriteria evaluation(MCE)and Markov models were introduced to obtain empirical estimates of the factors affecting the probability of ecological land *** agent-based CA-SLR-MCE-Markov(ABCSMM)land-use conversion model was proposed to explore the impacts of policies on land-use *** model can reproduce observed land-use patterns and provide links for forest transition and urban expansion to land-use decisions and ecosystem *** results demonstrated land-use simulations under multi-policy scenarios,revealing the usefulness of the model for normative research on land-use management.

关键词： Land use/land cover Human-environment interactions agent-based model Cellular automaton

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A Cautionary Note on the Application of GIS in Spatial Optimization modeling

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Journal of Geographic Information System 2024年第1期16卷 89-113页

作者： Bin Zhou Department of Geography & GIS Southern Illinois University Edwardsville Edwardsville USA

Spatial optimization as part of spatial modeling has been facilitated significantly by integration with GIS techniques. However, for certain research topics, applying standard GIS techniques may create problems which require attention. This paper serves as a cautionary note to demonstrate two problems associated with applying GIS in spatial optimization, using a capacitated p-median facility location optimization problem as an example. The first problem involves errors in interpolating spatial variations of travel costs from using kriging, a common set of techniques for raster files. The second problem is inaccuracy in routing performed on a graph directly created from polyline shapefiles, a common vector file type. While revealing these problems, the paper also suggests remedies. Specifically, interpolation errors can be eliminated by using agent-based spatial modeling while the inaccuracy in routing can be improved through altering the graph topology by splitting the long edges of the shapefile. These issues suggest the need for caution in applying GIS in spatial optimization study.

关键词： Spatial Optimization GIS agent-based model Covariance Function Interpolation

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