A multi-scale agent-based model of infectious disease transmission to assess the impact of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions:The COVID-19 case

作     者：Luyao Kou Xinzhi Wang Yang Li Xiaojing Guo Hui Zhang 

作者机构：Institute of Public Safety ResearchTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084PR China School of Computer Engineering and ScienceShanghai UniversityShanghai 200444PR China 

出 版 物：《Journal of Safety Science and Resilience》 (安全科学与韧性（英文）)

年 卷 期：2021年第2卷第4期

页      面：199-207页

核心收录：

学科分类：0710[理学-生物学] 1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 1001[医学-基础医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 0837[工学-安全科学与工程] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 0802[工学-机械工程] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 0812[工学-计算机科学与技术（可授工学、理学学位）] 10[医学] 

基　　金：National Key R&D Program of China(No.2020YFA0714500) National Science Foundation of China(Grant nos.72174099,72042010) High-tech Discipline Construction Fundings for Universities in Beijing(Safety Science and Engineering) 

主　　题：Public health Transmission risk Agent-based model Epidemic simulation Policy assessment 

摘      要：Mathematical and computational models are useful tools for virtual policy experiments on infectious disease *** models fail to provide flexible and rapid simulation of various epidemic scenarios for policy *** paper establishes a multi-scale agent-based model to investigate the infectious disease propagation between cities and within a city using the knowledge from person-to-person *** the model,the contact and infection of individuals at the micro scale where an agent represents a person provide insights for the interactions of agents at the meso scale where an agent refers to hundreds of *** cities with frequent population movements in China are taken as an example and actual data on traffic patterns and demographic parameters are *** scenarios for dynamic propagation of infectious disease with no external measures are compared versus the scenarios with vaccination and non-pharmaceutical *** model predicts that the peak of infections will decline by 67.37%with 80%vaccination rate,compared to a drop of 89.56%when isolation and quarantine measures are also in *** results highlight the importance of controlling the source of infection by isolation and quarantine throughout the *** also study the effect when cities implement inconsis-tent public health interventions,which is common in practical *** on our results,the model can be applied to COVID-19 and other infectious diseases according to the various needs of government agencies.