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Application of logistic regression model for hazard assessment of landslides caused by the 2012 yiliang Ms 5.7 earthquake in Yunnan Province,China

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Journal of Mountain Science 2023年第3期20卷 657-669页

作者： JIN Jia-le CUI Yu-long XU Chong ZHENG Jun MIAO Hai-bo School of Civil Engineering and Architecture Anhui University of Science and TechnologyHuainan 232001China National Institute of Natural Hazards Ministry of Emergency Management of ChinaBeijing 100085China Key Laboratory of Compound and Chained Natural Hazards Dynamics Ministry of Emergency Management of ChinaBeijing 100085China Department of Civil Engineering Zhejiang UniversityHangzhou 310058China

Accurate assessment of seismic landslides hazard is a prerequisite and foundation for postdisaster relief of *** Ms 5.7 earthquake occurring on September 7,2012,in yiliang County,Yunnan Province,China,triggered hundreds of *** explore the characteristics of coseismic landslides caused by this moderate-strong earthquake and their significance in predicting seismic landslides regionally,this study uses an artificial visual interpretation method based on a planet image with 5-m resolution to obtain the information of the coseismic landslides and establishes a coseismic landslide database containing data on 232 *** influencing factors of landslides were selected for this study:elevation,relative elevation,slope angle,aspect,slope position,distance to river system,distance to faults,strata,and peak ground *** real probability of coseismic landslide occurrence is calculated by combining the Bayesian probability and logistic regression *** on the coseismic landslides,the probabilities of landslide occurrence under different peak ground acceleration are predicted using a logistic regression ***,the model established in this paper is used to calculate the landslide probability of the Ludian Ms 6.5 earthquake that occurred in August 2014,78.9 km away from the macro-epicenter of the yiliang *** probability is verified by the real coseismic landslides of this earthquake,which confirms the reliability of the method presented in this *** study proves that the model established according to the seismic landslides triggered by one earthquake has a good effect on the seismic landslides hazard assessment of similar magnitude,and can provide a reference for seismic landslides prediction of moderate-strong earthquakes in this region.

关键词： yiliang earthquake Coseismic landslide Logisticregression model Bayesian probability Hazard assessment

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The Characteristics of the Precursory Anomaly prior to the yiliang earthquakes,Yunnan,China on September 7,2012

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earthquake Research in China 2014年第2期28卷 250-260页

作者： Sun Zongqiang Shi Yafang Gao Huayan Rui Wenjun Feng Liangliang Xu Fangfang Cao Xiaoli Wang Bin Wang Yongmei earthquake Prevention and Disaster Reduction Bureau of Shuifu County Guiyang Seismological Observatory earthquake Administration of Lufeng County earthquake Administration of Binchuan County earthquake Administration of Baoji City Rongcheng Seismic Station Yancheng Seismic Station earthquake Administration of Zhaotong County

An analysis was carried out on the seismic activity and the precursory anomaly prior to the earthquakes in yiliang on September 7,2012. The characteristics of the seismic activity,the dynamic changes of underground fluid and deformation were investigated. As a result of the investigation,we found that: before the earthquake,the seismicity level of M4. 0earthquakes had enhanced,and seismic gap of a small earthquake had appeared; the precursory anomalies emerged about 1 year before the earthquake; there was phenomenon of short-term anomaly migrating from the periphery to the epicenter area; the imminent anomaly appeared in a relatively concentrated period of time, a week before the earthquake. The research has shown a significant guidance for the analysis and prediction of strong earthquakes( Ml> 5. 0).

关键词： yiliang earthquake Seismicity anomaly Precursor anomaly

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