Application of logistic regression model for hazard assessment of landslides caused by the 2012 Yiliang Ms 5.7 earthquake in Yunnan Province,China

作     者：JIN Jia-le CUI Yu-long XU Chong ZHENG Jun MIAO Hai-bo JIN Jia-le;CUI Yu-long;XU Chong;ZHENG Jun;MIAO Hai-bo

作者机构：School of Civil Engineering and ArchitectureAnhui University of Science and TechnologyHuainan 232001China National Institute of Natural HazardsMinistry of Emergency Management of ChinaBeijing 100085China Key Laboratory of Compound and Chained Natural Hazards DynamicsMinistry of Emergency Management of ChinaBeijing 100085China Department of Civil EngineeringZhejiang UniversityHangzhou 310058China 

出 版 物：《Journal of Mountain Science》 (山地科学学报（英文）)

年 卷 期：2023年第20卷第3期

页      面：657-669页

核心收录：

学科分类：0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 070801[理学-固体地球物理学] 081803[工学-地质工程] 07[理学] 08[工学] 0708[理学-地球物理学] 0818[工学-地质资源与地质工程] 

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42277136) 

主　　题：Yiliang earthquake Coseismic landslide Logisticregression model Bayesian probability Hazard assessment 

摘      要：Accurate assessment of seismic landslides hazard is a prerequisite and foundation for postdisaster relief of *** Ms 5.7 earthquake occurring on September 7,2012,in Yiliang County,Yunnan Province,China,triggered hundreds of *** explore the characteristics of coseismic landslides caused by this moderate-strong earthquake and their significance in predicting seismic landslides regionally,this study uses an artificial visual interpretation method based on a planet image with 5-m resolution to obtain the information of the coseismic landslides and establishes a coseismic landslide database containing data on 232 *** influencing factors of landslides were selected for this study:elevation,relative elevation,slope angle,aspect,slope position,distance to river system,distance to faults,strata,and peak ground *** real probability of coseismic landslide occurrence is calculated by combining the Bayesian probability and logistic regression *** on the coseismic landslides,the probabilities of landslide occurrence under different peak ground acceleration are predicted using a logistic regression ***,the model established in this paper is used to calculate the landslide probability of the Ludian Ms 6.5 earthquake that occurred in August 2014,78.9 km away from the macro-epicenter of the Yiliang *** probability is verified by the real coseismic landslides of this earthquake,which confirms the reliability of the method presented in this *** study proves that the model established according to the seismic landslides triggered by one earthquake has a good effect on the seismic landslides hazard assessment of similar magnitude,and can provide a reference for seismic landslides prediction of moderate-strong earthquakes in this region.