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Storage and redistribution of anthropogenic CO_(2) in the western north pacific:The role of subtropical mode water transportation

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Fundamental Research 2024年第1期4卷 103-112页

作者： Cheng-long Li Lei Han Wei-dong Zhai Di Qi Xu-chen Wang Hong-mei Lin Li-wen Zheng Institute of Marine Science and Technology Shandong UniversityQingdao 266237China China-ASEAN College of Marine Science and Technology Xiamen University MalaysiaSelangorMalaysia Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519080China Polar and Marine Research Institute Jimei UniversityXiamen 361021China Key Laboratory of Marine Chemistry Theory and Technology and Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth SystemMinistry of EducationOcean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China Center for Isotope Geochemistry and Geochronology Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao)Qingdao 266237China Weihai Institute of Marine Ecology and Economy Research Weihai 264400China

Oceanic uptake and storage of anthropogenic CO_(2)(CANT)are regulated by ocean circulation and ventilation.To decipher the storage and redistribution of CANT in the western north pacific,where a major CANT sink develops,we investigated the water column carbonate system,dissolved inorganic radiocarbon and ancillary parameters in May and August 2018,spanning the Kuroshio Extension(KE,35-39°N),Kuroshio Recirculation(KR,27-35°N)and subtropical(21-27°N)zones.Water column CANT inventories were estimated to be 40.5±1.1 mol m^(-2) in the KR zone and 37.2±0.9 mol m^(-2) in the subtropical zone.In comparison with historical data obtained in 2005,relatively high rates of increase of the CANT inventory of 1.05±0.20 and 1.03±0.12 mol m^(-2) yr^(-1) in the recent decade were obtained in the KR and subtropical zones,respectively.Our water-mass-based analyses suggest that formation and transport of subtropical mode water dominate the deep penetration,storage,and redistribution of CANT in those two regions.In the KE zone,however,both the water column CANT inventory and the decadal CANT accumulation rate were small and uncertain owing to the dynamic hydrology,where the naturally uplifting isopycnal surfaces make CANT penetration relatively shallow.The findings of this study improve the understanding of the spatiotemporal variations of CANT distribution,storage,and transport in the western north pacific.

关键词： Oceanic CO_(2)uptake Anthropogenic CO_(2)storage Subtropical mode water Kuroshio extension Kuroshio recirculation western north pacific

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Uptrend of the western north pacific Tropical Cyclone Outflow Height during 1959-2021

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第2期38卷 339-350页

作者： Yuan SUN Zhihao FENG Wei ZHONG Panmao ZHAI Yanluan LIN Shuo LYU College of Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies National University of Defense TechnologyNanjing 211100 College of Meteorology and Oceanography National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha 410073 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling Department of Earth System ScienceTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084

Relatively little is known about the impact of global warming on the tropical cyclone(TC)outflow,despite its large contribution to TC intensity.In this study,based on the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship(IBTrACS)dataset and ERA5 reanalysis data,we show that the TC outflow height has risen significantly(48.20±22.18 m decades-1)in the past decades(1959-2021)over the western north pacific,and the rising trend tends to be sharper for stronger TCs(the uptrend of severe typhoon is 61.09±40.92 m decades-1).This rising trend of the outflow height explains the contradiction between the decrease trend of the TC outflow temperature and the increase trend of the atmospheric troposphere temperature.Moreover,possible contribution of the TC outflow height uptrend to TC intensity has also been investigated.The results show that the rise of outflow height leads to the decrease of outflow temperature,and thus an increased difference between underlying sea surface temperature(SST)and TC outflow temperature,which eventually favors the increase of TC intensity.

关键词： tropical cyclone outflow height global warming western north pacific

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Track-Pattern-Based Characteristics of Extratropical Transitioning Tropical Cyclones in the western north pacific

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第6期41卷 1251-1263页

作者： Hong HUANG Dan WU Yuan WANG Zhen WANG Yu LIU College of Meteorology and Oceanography National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha 410000China No.31631 Army of PLA Huizhou 516000China School of Atmospheric Sciences and Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education Nanjing 210023China No.93721 Army of PLA Shuozhou 038300China

Based on the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center(RSMC)Tokyo-Typhoon Center best-track data and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset,extratropical transitioning(ET)tropical cyclones(ETCs)over the western north pacific(WNP)during 1951–2021 are classified into six clusters using the fuzzy c-means clustering method(FCM)according to their track patterns.The characteristics of the six hard-clustered ETCs with the highest membership coefficient are shown.Most tropical cyclones(TCs)that were assigned to clusters C2,C5,and C6 made landfall over eastern Asian countries,which severely threatened these regions.Among landfalling TCs,93.2%completed their ET after landfall,whereas 39.8%of ETCs completed their transition within one day.The frequency of ETCs over the WNP has decreased in the past four decades,wherein cluster C5 demonstrated a significant decrease on both interannual and interdecadal timescales with the expansion and intensification of the western pacific subtropical high(WPSH).This large-scale circulation pattern is favorable for C2 and causes it to become the dominant track pattern,owning to it containing the largest number of intensifying ETCs among the six clusters,a number that has increased insignificantly over the past four decades.The surface roughness variation and three-dimensional background circulation led to C5 containing the maximum number of landfalling TCs and a minimum number of intensifying ETCs.Our results will facilitate a better understanding of the spatiotemporal distributions of ET events and associated environment background fields,which will benefit the effective monitoring of these events over the WNP.

关键词： western north pacific tropical cyclone extratropical transition fuzzy c-means clustering method

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A Physics-informed Deep-learning Intensity Prediction Scheme for Tropical Cyclones over the western north pacific

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第7期41卷 1391-1402页

作者： Yitian ZHOU Ruifen ZHAN Yuqing WANG Peiyan CHEN Zhemin TAN Zhipeng XIE Xiuwen NIE Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration Shanghai 200030China Department of Atmospheric Sciences and International pacific Research Center University of Hawaii at ManoaHonolulu 96822USA Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/MOE and School of the Atmospheric SciencesNanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China School of Computer Science Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China

Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone(TC)intensity is challenging due to the complex physical processes involved.Here,we introduce a new TC intensity prediction scheme for the western north pacific(WNP)based on a time-dependent theory of TC intensification,termed the energetically based dynamical system(EBDS)model,together with the use of a long short-term memory(LSTM)neural network.In time-dependent theory,TC intensity change is controlled by both the internal dynamics of the TC system and various environmental factors,expressed as environmental dynamical efficiency.The LSTM neural network is used to predict the environmental dynamical efficiency in the EBDS model trained using besttrack TC data and global reanalysis data during 1982–2017.The transfer learning and ensemble methods are used to retrain the scheme using the environmental factors predicted by the Global Forecast System(GFS)of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction during 2017–21.The predicted environmental dynamical efficiency is finally iterated into the EBDS equations to predict TC intensity.The new scheme is evaluated for TC intensity prediction using both reanalysis data and the GFS prediction data.The intensity prediction by the new scheme shows better skill than the official prediction from the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)and those by other state-of-art statistical and dynamical forecast systems,except for the 72-h forecast.Particularly at the longer lead times of 96 h and 120 h,the new scheme has smaller forecast errors,with a more than 30%improvement over the official forecasts.

关键词： tropical cyclones western north pacific intensity prediction EBDS LSTM

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Tropical Cyclones over the western north pacific Strengthen the East Asia–pacific Pattern during Summer

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第2期39卷 249-259页

作者： Sining LING Riyu LU State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

The contribution of tropical cyclones(TCs)to the East Asia–pacific(EAP)teleconnection pattern during summer was investigated using the best track data of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and NCEP-2 reanalysis datasets from 1979 to2018.The results showed that the TCs over the western north pacific(WNP)correspond to a strengthened EAP pattern:During the summers of strong convection over the tropical WNP,TC days correspond to a stronger cyclonic circulation anomaly over the WNP in the lower troposphere,an enhanced seesaw pattern of negative and positive geopotential height anomalies over the subtropical WNP and midlatitude East Asia in the middle troposphere,and a more northward shift of the East Asian westerly jet in the upper troposphere.Further analyses indicated that two types of TCs with distinctly different tracks,i.e.,westward-moving TCs and northward-moving TCs,both favor the EAP pattern.The present results imply that TCs over the WNP,as extreme weather,can contribute significantly to summer-mean climate anomalies over the WNP and East Asia.

关键词： tropical cyclone East Asia–pacific pattern teleconnection western north pacific summer

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Impact of the western pacific Tropical Easterly Jet on Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency over the western north pacific

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第2期39卷 235-248页

作者： Ruifen ZHAN Yuqing WANG Yihui DING Department of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences Institute of Atmospheric SciencesFudan UniversityShanghai 200438China Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration Shanghai 200030China Innovation Center of Ocean and Atmosphere System Zhuhai Fudan Innovation Research InstituteZhuhai 519055China International pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversity of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHawaiiHI 96822USA National Climate Center and Laboratory for Climate Studies China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

Although it is well known that the tropical easterly jet(TEJ)has a significant impact on summer weather and climate over India and Africa,whether the TEJ exerts an important impact on tropical cyclone(TC)activity over the western north pacific(WNP)remains unknown.In this study,we examined the impact of the TEJ on the interannual variability of TC genesis frequency over the WNP in the TC season(June-September)during 1980-2020.The results show a significant positive correlation between TC genesis frequency over the WNP and the jet intensity in the entrance region of the TEJ over the tropical western pacific(in brief WP_TEJ),with a correlation coefficient as high as 0.66.The intensified WP_TEJ results in strong ageostrophic northerly winds in the entrance region and thus upper-level divergence to the north of the jet axis over the main TC genesis region in the WNP.This would lead to an increase in upward motion in the troposphere with enhanced low-level convergence,which are the most important factors to the increases in low-level vorticity,mid-level humidity and low-level eddy kinetic energy,and the decreases in sea level pressure and vertical wind shear in the region.All these changes are favorable for TC genesis over the WNP and vice versa.Further analyses indicate that the interannual variability of the WP_TEJ intensity is likely to be linked to the local diabatic heating over the Indian Ocean-western pacific and the central pacific El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation.

关键词： tropical cyclones genesis frequency tropical easterly jet western north pacific

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Projection of the Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity Affecting East Asia over the western north pacific Based on Multi-RegCM4 Simulations

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第2期39卷 284-303页

作者： Jie WU Xuejie GAO Yingmo ZHU Ying SHI Filippo GIORGI School of Geography and Environmental Engineering Gannan Normal UniversityGanzhou 341000China Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Department of Atmospheric Sciences Yunnan UniversityKunming 650504China National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Trieste 34100Italy

Future changes in tropical cyclone(TC)activity over the western north pacific(WNP)under the representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 are investigated based on a set of 21 st century climate change simulations over East Asia with the regional climate model RegCM4 driven by five global models.The RegCM4 reproduces the major features of the observed TC activity over the region in the present-day period of 1986-2005,although with the underestimation of the number of TC genesis and intensity.A low number of TCs making landfall over China is also simulated.By the end of the 21st century(2079-98),the annual mean frequency of TC genesis and occurrence is projected to increase over the WNP by16%and 10%,respectively.The increase in frequency of TC occurrence is in good agreement among the simulations,with the largest increase over the ocean surrounding Taiwan Island and to the south of Japan.The TCs tend to be stronger in the future compared to the present-day period of 1986-2005,with a large increase in the frequency of strong TCs.In addition,more TCs landings are projected over most of the China coast,with an increase of~18%over the whole Chinese territory.

关键词： regional climate model RegCM4 tropical cyclone western north pacific

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Recent progress on the seasonal tropical cyclone predictions over the western north pacific from 2014 to 2020

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2022年第1期11卷 26-35页

作者： Eun-Jeong Cha Se Hwan Yang Yu Sun Hyun Chang-Hoi Ho Il-Ju Moon Meso-scale Meteorological Phenomenon Research Team National Institute of Meteorological SciencesKorean Meteorological AdministrationJejuRepublic of Korea National Typhoon Center Korean Meteorological AdministrationJejuRepublic of Korea School of Earth and Environmental Sciences Seoul National UniversitySeoulRepublic of Korea Typhoon Research Center Jeju National UniversityJejuRepublic of Korea

This study summarized the procedure for the seasonal predictions of tropical cyclones(TCs)over the western north pacific(WNP),which is currently operating at the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA),Republic of Korea.The methodology was briefly described,and its prediction accuracy was verified.Seasonal predictions were produced by synthesizing spatiotemporal evolutions of various climate factors such as El Ni no–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),monsoon activity,and Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO),using four models:a statistical,a dynamical,and two statistical–dynamical models.The KMA forecaster predicted the number of TCs over the WNP based on the results of the four models and season to season climate variations.The seasonal prediction of TCs is announced through the press twice a year,for the summer on May and fall on August.The present results showed low accuracy during the period 2014–2020.To advance forecast skill,a set of recommendations are suggested.

关键词： Tropical cyclones Seasonal prediction western north pacific Statistical model Statistical-dynamical model Dynamical model Forecast error and verification

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western north pacific Tropical Cyclone Database Created by the China Meteorological Administration

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第4期38卷 690-699页

作者： Xiaoqin LU Hui YU Ming YING Bingke ZHAO Shuai ZHANG Limin LIN Lina BAI Rijin WAN Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone/China Meteorological Administration Shanghai 200030China

This paper describes the access to, and the content, characteristics, and potential applications of the tropical cyclone(TC) database that is maintained and actively developed by the China Meteorological Administration, with the aim of facilitating its use in scientific research and operational services. This database records data relating to all TCs that have passed through the western north pacific(WNP) and South China Sea(SCS) since 1949. TC data collection has expanded over recent decades via continuous TC monitoring using remote sensing and specialized field detection techniques,allowing collation of a multi-source TC database for the WNP and SCS that covers a long period, with wide coverage and many observational elements. This database now comprises a wide variety of information related to TCs, such as historical or real-time locations(i.e., best track and landfall), intensity, dynamic and thermal structures, wind strengths, precipitation amounts, and frequency. This database will support ongoing research into the processes and patterns associated with TC climatic activity and TC forecasting.

关键词： tropical cyclone multi-source database western north pacific

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Tropical cyclones and multiscale climate variability: The active western north pacific typhoon season of 2018

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Science China Earth Sciences 2020年第1期63卷 1-11页

作者： Liang WU Hongjie ZHANG Tao FENG Yulian TANG Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China College of Oceanography Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China

The 2018 typhoon season in the western north pacific(WNP) was highly active, with 26 named tropical cyclones(TCs) from June to November, which exceeded the climatological mean(22) and was the second busiest season over the past twenty years. More TCs formed in the eastern region of the WNP and the northern region of the South China Sea(SCS). More TCs took the northeast quadrant in the WNP, recurving from northwestward to northward and causing heavy damages in China's Mainland(69.73 billion yuan) in 2018. Multiscale climate variability is conducive to an active season via an enhanced monsoon trough and a weakened subtropical high in the WNP. The large-scale backgrounds in 2018 showed a favorable environment for TCs established by a developing central pacific(CP) El Ni?o and positive pacific meridional mode(PMM)episode on interannual timescales. The tropical central pacific(TCP) SST forcing exhibits primary control on TCs in the WNP and large-scale circulations, which are insensitive to the PMM. During CP El Ni?o years, anomalous convection associated with the TCP warming leads to significantly increased anomalous cyclonic circulation in the WNP because of a Gill-type Rossby wave response. As a result, the weakened subtropical high and enhanced monsoon trough shift eastward and northward, which favor TC genesis and development. Although such increased TC activity in 2018 might be slightly suppressed by interdecadal climate variability, it was mostly attributed to the favorable interannual background. In addition, high-frequency climate signals,such as intraseasonal oscillations(ISOs) and synoptic-scale disturbances(SSDs), interacted with the enhanced monsoon trough and strongly modulated regional TC genesis and development in 2018.

关键词： Tropical cyclone Multiscale climate variability Typhoon season of 2018 western north pacific

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