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The Innovation 2023年第2期4卷 17-18页

作者： Ping Huang Xiao-Tong Zheng Xichen Li Kaiming Hu Zhen-Qiang Zhou Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography and Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China

Our planet experienced a number of extreme climate events in 2022,including extreme summer heat in the northern hemisphere,droughts in China and Brazil,and floods in Pakistan,South Africa,and Australia.Persistent global warming is believed to be the key factor in these extreme climate events,which were rare in past decades.Understanding the physical dynamics of regional climate change is essential if we are to reliably project such events in a warmer climate.

关键词： warming floods hemisphere

Nested case-control study of multiple serological indexes and Brighton pediatric early warming score in predicting death of children with sepsis

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World Journal of Clinical Cases 2019年第4期7卷 431-440页

作者： Xiong Xie Ming Li Tian-Tian Xiong Rui Wang Liang Xiao Department of Pediatrics Third Clinical Hospital China Three Gorges University Gezhouba Central Hospital

BACKGROUND Currently, it is difficult to predict the complications of children at the early stage of sepsis. Brighton pediatric early warning score(PEWS) is a disease risk assessment system that is simple and easy to operate, which has good sensitivity and specificity in disease recognition among children. Because detection indicators vary widely in children, a single indicator is difficult to assess the posttreatment status of children with sepsis.AIM To investigate the relationship between serological markers, Brighton PEWS, and death in children with sepsis after treatment.METHODS A total of 205 children diagnosed with sepsis at our hospital were enrolled. The baseline data, serum scores, and PEWS scores were recorded. In the nested casecontrol study, children who died during the study period were included in an observation group. According to the matching principle, the children who were not dead in the same cohort were included in a control group. The influencing factors of death in children with sepsis after treatment and the value of each evaluation index in predicting the prognosis of children were analyzed.RESULTS A total of 96 children were enrolled in the study, including 48 each in the observation group and the control group. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that antibacterial treatments within 1 h(P = 0.017), shock(P = 0.044),multiple organ dysfunction syndrome(MODS)(P = 0.027), serum procalcitonin(PCT)(P = 0.047), serum albumin(ALB)(P = 0.024), and PEWS(P = 0.012) were independent risk factors for the death of children with sepsis. The area under the curve of the combination of ALB, PCT, and PEWS to predict the death in children with sepsis was the highest(0.908).CONCLUSION Antibacterial treatments within 1 h, shock, MODS, PCT, ALB, and PEWS are independent risk factors for the death of children with sepsis. The predictive accuracy of the combination of PCT, ALB, and PEWS for the prognosis of children with sepsis is the best.

关键词： Serological indicators Pediatric early warming score Sepsis Nested casecontrol study Systemic inflammatory reaction syndrome

Winter Arctic warming and its linkage with midlatitude atmospheric circulation and associated cold extremes: The key role of meridional potential vorticity gradient

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Science China Earth Sciences 2019年第9期62卷 1329-1339页

作者： Muyuan LI Dehai LUO CAS Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

The surface air temperature over the Eurasian continent has exhibited a significant cooling trend in recent decades(1990–2013), which has occurred simultaneously with Arctic warming and Arctic sea ice loss. While many studies demonstrated that midlatitude cold extremes are linked to Arctic warming and Arctic sea ice loss, some studies suggest that they are unrelated.The causal relationship between midlatitude cold extremes and Arctic change is uncertain, and it is thus an unsolved and difficult issue. It has been widely recognized that the severity and location of midlatitude cold extremes are closely related to the persistence, location and movement of blocking systems. It might be possible that the Arctic sea ice decline or the Arctic’s warming influences midlatitude cold extremes by changing the blocking system. This paper reviews the recent research advances on the linkages between the blocking system and Arctic warming. The nonlinear multiscale interaction model of Luo et al.revealed that the magnitude of the meridional gradient(PVy) of the background potential vorticity(PV) is a key parameter that reflects changes in the dispersion and nonlinearity of the blocking system. It was found that Arctic warming played a role in reducing the dispersion of the blocking system and enhancing its nonlinearity by reducing the magnitude of PVy. A small PVyis a favorable background condition for increasing the duration of blocking events and producing midlatitude cold extremes.However, because the magnitude of PVyreflects the difference between the background PVof the Arctic high latitudes and the midlatitude continent, the occurrence of midlatitude cold extremes not only depends on an anomalous background PVover Arctic high latitudes but also on its value over the midlatitudes. Thus, Arctic warming or sea ice decline is not necessary for the occurrence of midlatitude cold extremes.

关键词： Sea ice decline Arctic warming PV gradient Blocking Cold extremes

Responses and changes in the permafrost and snow water equivalent in the Northern Hemisphere under a scenario of 1.5℃ warming

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2017年第4期8卷 235-244页

作者： KONG Ying WANG Cheng-Hai Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of Gansu Province College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou 730000 China

In this study, the period that corresponds to the threshold of a 1.5℃ rise (relative to 1861e1880) in surface temperature is validated using a multi-model ensemble mean from 17 global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). On this basis, the changes in permafrost and snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere are investigated under a scenario in which the global surface temperature has risen by 1.5℃, and the uncertainties of the results are further discussed. The results show that the threshold of 1.5℃ warming will be reached in 2027, 2026, and 2023 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5, respectively. When the global average surface temperature rises by 1.5℃, the southern boundary of the permafrost will move 1e3.5 northward (relative to 1986e2005), particularly in the southern Central Siberian Plateau. The permafrost area will be reduced by 3.43x106 km2 (21.12%), 3.91x106 km2 (24.1%) and 4.15x106 km2 (25.55%) relative to 1986e2005 in RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The snow water equivalent will decrease in over half of the regions in the Northern Hemisphere but increase only slightly in the Central Siberian Plateau. The snow water equivalent will decrease significantly (more than 40% relative to 1986e2005) in central North America, western Europe, and northwestern Russia. The permafrost area in the QinghaieTibet Plateau will decrease by 0.15x106 km2 (7.28%), 0.18x 106 km2 (8.74%), and 0.17x106 km2 (8.25%), respectively, in RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5. The snow water equivalent in winter (DJF) and spring (MAM) over the QinghaieTibet Plateau will decrease by 14.9% and 13.8%, respectively.

关键词： Permafrost Snow water equivalent Northern Hemisphere 1.5℃ global warming

Changes of heating and cooling degree days over China in response toglobal warming of 1.5℃, 2℃, 3℃ and 4℃

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2018年第3期9卷 192-200页

作者： SHI Ying ZHANG Dong-Feng XU Ying ZHOU Bo-Tao National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China Shanxi Climate Center Shanxi Meteorological Service Taiyuan 030006 China

Future changes of heating degree days （HDD） and cooling degree days （CDD） in the 21st century with and without considering populationfactor are investigated based on four sets of climate change simulations over East Asia using the regional climate model version 4.4 （RegCM4.4）driven by the global models of CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, EC-EARTH, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-MR. Under global warming of 1.5℃, 2℃, 3℃,and 4℃, significant decrease of HDD can be found over China without considering population factor, with greater decrease over high elevationand high latitude regions, including the Tibetan Plateau, the northern part of Northeast China, and Northwest China; while population-weightedHDD increased in areas where population will increase in the future, such as Beijing, Tianjin, parts of southern Hebei, northern Shandong andHenan provinces. Similarly, the CDD projections with and without considering population factor are largely different. Specifically, withoutconsidering population, increase of CDD were observed over most parts of China except the Tibetan Plateau where the CDD remained zerobecause of the cold climate even under global warming; while considering population factor, the future CDD decreases in South China andincreases in North China, the Sichuan Basin, and the southeastern coastal areas, which is directly related to the population changes. The differentfuture changes of HDD and CDD when considering and disregarding the effects of population show that population distribution plays animportant role in energy consumption, which should be considered in future research.

关键词： Regional climate model Global warming of 1.5 ℃ 2℃ 3℃ and 4℃ Heating degree days Cooling degree days China

Impact of Temperature on Influenza A Status during Global warming Hiatus

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Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2019年第7期32卷 554-557页

作者： YAN Shao Min WU Guang State Key Laboratory of Non-Food Biomass and Enzyme Technology National Engineering Research Center for Non-Food Biorefinery Guangxi Key Laboratory of Bio-refinery Guangxi Academy of Sciences

Temperature is a crucial factor that affects in flue nza tran smissi on. Therefore, several studies have correlated various aspects of in flue nza with temperature from the global warming period during which temperature exhibits a clear trend. The global warming hiatus has been existing since the year 1998. This provides an opportunity to investigate the effect of temperature on the transmission of influenza from the viewpoint that temperature is trendless.

关键词： Influenza A Global warming Hiatus

Asymmetric response of the eastern tropical Indian SST to climate warming and cooling

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2019年第5期38卷 76-85页

作者： Shan Xu Yiyong Luo Fukai Liu College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences Ocean University of China Physical Oceanography Laboratory Ocean University of China

The response of the eastern tropical Indian Ocean(ETIO) to heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign is investigated using the Community Earth System Model(CESM). A significant positive asymmetry in sea surface temperature(SST) is found over the ETIO—the warming responses to the positive forcing exceeds the cooling to the negative forcing. A mixed layer heat budget analysis is carried out to identify the mechanisms responsible for the SST asymmetry. Results show that it is mainly ascribed to the ocean dynamical processes, including vertical advections and diffusion. The net surface heat flux, on the contrary, works to reduce the asymmetry through its shortwave radiation and latent heat flux components. The former is due to the nonlinear relationship between SST and cloud, while the latter is resulted mainly from Newtonian damping and air-sea stability effects. Changes in the SST skewness are also evaluated, with more enhanced negative SST skewness over the ETIO found for the cooling than heating scenarios due to the asymmetric thermocline-SST feedback.

关键词： tropical Indian Ocean SST asymmetry climate warming climate cooling negative SST skewness

Impacts of warming on root biomass allocation in alpine steppe on the north Tibetan Plateau

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Journal of Mountain Science 2017年第8期14卷 1615-1623页

作者： MA Xing-xing YAN Yan HONG Jiang-tao LU Xu-yang WANG Xiao-dan Key Laboratory of Mountain Surface Processes and Ecological Regulation Institute of Mountain Hazards and EnvironmentChinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

Biomass is an important component of global carbon cycling and is vulnerable to climate change. Previous studies have mainly focused on the responses of aboveground biomass and phenology to warming, while studies of root architecture and of root biomass allocation between coarse and fine roots have been scarcely reported in grassland ecosystems. We conducted an open-top-chamber warming experiment to investigate the effect of potential warming on root biomass and root allocation in alpine steppe on the north Tibetan Plateau. The results showed that Stipa purpurea had significantly higher total root length, root surface area and tips than Carex moocroftii. However,there were no differences in total root volume, mean diameter and forks for the two species. warming significantly increased total root biomass(27.60%), root biomass at 0–10 cm depth(27.84%) and coarse root biomass(diameter > 0.20 mm, 57.68%) in the growing season(August). However, warming had no significant influence on root biomass in the non-growing season(April). Root biomass showed clear seasonalvariations: total root biomass, root biomass at 0–10 cm depth and coarse root biomass significantly increased in the growing season. The increase in total root biomass was due to the enhancement of root biomass at 0–10 cm depth, to which the increase of coarse root biomass made a great contribution. This research is of significance for understanding biomass allocation, carbon cycling and biological adaptability in alpine grassland ecosystems under future climate change.

关键词： Coarse root Fine root Root architecture warming Climate change Open-top chambers

Temperature trends and elevation dependent warming during 1965-2014 in headwaters of Yangtze River, Qinghai Tibetan Plateau

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Journal of Mountain Science 2020年第3期17卷 556-571页

作者： Naveed AHMED WANG Gen-xu Adeyeri OLUWAFEMI Sarfraz MUNIR HU Zhao-yong Aamir SHAKOOR Muhammad Ali IMRAN Key Laboratory of Mountain Surface Process and Ecological Regulations Institute of Mountain Hazards and EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesChengdu 610041China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research Atmospheric Environmental Research Karlsruhe Institute of TechnologyCampus Alpine82467Germany Water Resources Engineering University of Kurdistan Hewler 30 Meter Avenue ErbilKurdistan44001Iraq Department of Agricultural Engineering Bahauddin Zakariya UniversityMultan66000Pakistan Beijing Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering China University of GeosciencesBeijing 100083China

The understanding of temperature trends in high elevation mountain areas is an integral part of climate change research and it is critical for assessing the impacts of climate change on water resources including glacier melt, degradation of soils, and active layer thickness. In this study, climate changes were analyzed based on trends in air temperature variables(Tmax, Tmin, Tmean), and Diurnal Temperature Range(DTR) as well as elevation-dependent warming at annual and seasonal scales in the Headwaters of Yangtze River(HWYZ), Qinghai Tibetan Plateau. The Base Period(1965-2014) was split into two subperiods;Period-Ⅰ(1965-1989) and Period-Ⅱ(1990-2014) and the analysis was constrained over two subbasins;Zhimenda and Tuotuohe. Increasing trends were found in absolute changes in temperature variables during Period-Ⅱ as compared to Period-Ⅰ.Tmax, Tmin, and Tmean had significant increasing trends for both sub-basins. The highest significant trends in annual time scale were observed in Tmin(1.15℃ decade-1) in Tuotuohe and 0.98℃ decade-1 in Zhimenda sub-basins. In Period-Ⅱ, only the winter season had the highest magnitudes of Tmax and Tmin0.58℃ decade-1 and 1.26℃ decade-1 in Tuotuohe subbasin, respectively. Elevation dependent warming analysis revealed that Tmax, Tmin and Tmean trend magnitudes increase with the increase of elevations in the middle reaches(4000 m to 4400 m) of the HWYZ during Period-Ⅱ annually. The increasing trend magnitude during Period-Ⅱ, for Tmax, is 1.77, 0.92, and 1.31℃ decade-1, for Tmin 1.20, 1.32 and 1.59℃ decade-1,for Tmean 1.51, 1.10 and 1.51℃ decade-1 at elevations of4066 m, 4175 m and 4415 m respectively in the winter season. Tmean increases during the spring season for> 3681 m elevations during Period-Ⅱ, with no particular relation with elevation dependency for other variables. During the summer season in Period Ⅱ, Tmax, Tmin, Tmean increases with the increase of elevations(3681 m to 4415 m) in the middle reaches of HWYZ. Elevation dependent warming(EDW), the study concluded that magnitudes

关键词： Climate change Elevation dependent warming Mann Kendall Temperature trends Yangtze River Qinghai Tibetan Plateau

Abrupt temperature change and a warming hiatus from 1951 to 2014 in Inner Mongolia, China

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Journal of Arid Land 2019年第2期11卷 192-207页

作者： MA Long LI Hongyu LIU Tingxi LIANG Longteng Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering College Inner Mongolia Agricultural University

An abrupt temperature change and a warming hiatus have strongly influenced the global climate.This study focused on these changes in Inner Mongolia, China. This study used the central clustering method, Mann-Kendall mutation test and other methods to explore the abrupt temperature change and warming hiatus in three different temperature zones of the study region based on average annual data series.Among the temperature metrics investigated, average minimum temperature(Tnav) shifted the earliest,followed by average temperature(Tnv) and average maximum temperature(Txav). The latest change was observed in summer(1990 s), whereas the earliest was observed in winter(1970 s). Before and after the abrupt temperature change, Tnav fluctuated considerably, whereas there was only a slight change in Txav.Before and after the abrupt temperature change, the winter temperature changed more dramatically than the summer temperature. Before the abrupt temperature change, Tnav in the central region(0.322°C/10 a)and west region(0.48°C/10 a) contributed the most to the increasing temperatures. After the abrupt temperature change, Tnav in winter in the central region(0.519°C/10 a) and in autumn in the west region(0.729°C/10 a) contributed the most to the temperature increases. Overall, in the years in which temperature shifts occurred early, a warming hiatus also appeared early. The three temperature metrics in spring(1991)in the east region were the first to exhibit a warming hiatus. In the east region, Txav displayed the lowest rate of increase(0.412°C/a) in the period after the abrupt temperature change and before the warming hiatus,and the highest rate of increase after the warming hiatus.

关键词： temperature abrupt temperature change warming hiatus cold and arid region northern China