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Global stability of an age-structured SVEIR epidemic model with waning immunity, latency and relapse

International Journal of Biomathematics 2017年第3期10卷 151-178页

作者： Lili Liu Xianning Liu Complex Systems Research Center Shanxi University Taiyuan Shan'xi 030006 P. R. China Key Laboratory of Eco-Environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education) School of Mathematics and Statistics Southwest University Chongqing 400715 P. R. China

The global dynamics of an SVEIR epidemic model with age-dependent waning immu- nity, latency and relapse are studied. Sharp threshold properties for global asymptotic stability of both disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium are given. The asymptotic smoothness, uniform persistence and the existence of interior global attractor of the semi-flow generated by a family of solutions of the system are also addressed. Furthermore, some related strategies for controlling the spread of diseases are discussed.

关键词： SVEIR epidemic model waning immunity age-dependent latency age-depen- dent relapse global stability.

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Incorporating the mutational landscape of SARS-COV-2 variants and case-dependent vaccination rates into epidemic models

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2022年第2期7卷 75-82页

作者： Mohammad Mihrab Chowdhury Md Rafiul Islam Md Sakhawat Hossain Nusrat Tabassum Angela Peace Department of Mathematics and Statistics Texas Tech UniversityLubbockTXUSA Department of Mathematics Iowa State UniversityAmesIAUSA

Coronavirus Disease(COVID-19),which began as a small outbreak in Wuhan,China,in December 2019,became a global pandemic within months due to its high *** the absence of pharmaceutical treatment,various non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs)to contain the spread of COVID-19 brought the entire world to a *** almost a year of seemingly returning to normalcy with the world's quickest vaccine development,the emergence of more infectious and vaccine resistant coronavirus variants is bringing the situation back to where it was a year *** the light of this new situation,we conducted a study to portray the possible scenarios based on the three key factors:impact of interventions(pharmaceutical and NPIs),vaccination rate,and vaccine *** our study,we assessed two of the most crucial factors,transmissibility and vaccination rate,in order to reduce the spreading of COVID-19 in a simple but effective *** order to incorporate the time-varying mutational landscape of COVID-19 variants,we estimated a weighted transmissibility composed of the proportion of existing strains that naturally vary over ***,we consider time varying vaccination rates based on the number of daily new *** method for calculating the vaccination rate from past active cases is an effective approach in forecasting probable future scenarios as it actively tracks people's attitudes toward immunization as active case *** simulations show that if a large number of individuals cannot be vaccinated by ensuring high efficacy in a short period of time,adopting NPIs is the best approach to manage disease transmission with the emergence of new vaccine breakthrough and more infectious variants.

关键词： Break-through variants waning immunity Reinfection Non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs) Vaccination rate

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Infection-acquired versus vaccine-acquired immunity in an SIRWS model

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2018年第1期3卷 118-135页

作者： Tiffany Leung Patricia T.Campbell Barry D.Hughes Federico Frascoli James M.McCaw School of Mathematics and Statistics University of MelbourneParkvilleVictoria 3010Australia Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory Epidemiology Unit Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and ImmunityUniversity of Melbourne and Royal Melbourne HospitalParkvilleVictoria 3010Australia Infection and immunity Research Theme Murdoch Children's Research InstituteRoyal Children's HospitalParkvilleVictoria 3052Australia Department of Mathematics Faculty of ScienceEngineering and TechnologySwinburne University of TechnologyHawthornVictoria 3122Australia Melbourne School of Population and Global Health University of MelbourneParkvilleVictoria 3010Australia

In some disease systems,the process of waning immunity can be subtle,involving a complex relationship between the duration of immunitydacquired either through natural infection or vaccinationdand subsequent boosting of immunity through asymptomatic *** present and analyse a model of infectious disease transmission where primary and secondary infections are distinguished to examine the interplay between infection and *** we allow the duration of infection-acquired immunity to differ from that of vaccine-acquired immunity to explore the impact on long-term disease patterns and prevalence of infection in the presence of immune *** model demonstrates that vaccination may induce cyclic behaviour,and the ability of vaccinations to reduce primary infections may not lead to decreased *** the boosting of vaccine-acquired immunity delays a primary infection,the driver of transmission largely remains primary *** contrast,if the immune boosting bypasses a primary infection,secondary infections become the main driver of transmission under a sufficiently long duration of *** results show that the epidemiological patterns of an infectious disease may change considerably when the duration of vaccine-acquired immunity differs from that of infection-acquired *** study highlights that for any particular disease and associated vaccine,a detailed understanding of the waning and boosting of immunity and how the duration of protection is influenced by infection prevalence are important as we seek to optimise vaccination strategies.

关键词： Infectious disease modelling Vaccination waning immunity Immune boosting

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The Effectiveness of Varicella Vaccine in China

The Effectiveness of Varicella Vaccine in China

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2012广东省预防医学会学术年会

作者：傅传喜 Ming Wang Jianhua Liang Jianxiong Xu Ckengbin Wang Stephanie Bialek Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention Centers for Disease Control and Prevention AtlantaGA

Background:The attenuated live varicella vaccine had been shown to be effective in preventing varicella and reducing the disease burden in the United ***,little wock has been done on investigating vaccine effectiveness in China where 3 varicella vaccines are *** the vaccines contain the same strain of virus,the vaccines licensed in China were from manufacturers different from the one licensed in the United *** conducted a matched case-control study to assess the effec- tiveness of the 3 varicella vaccines to use in China. Methods:In *** enrolled 1000 cases from Guangzhou,China and 1000 controls matched by age and place of *** cases were children clinically diagnosed with acute onset of a diffuse maculopapu- lovesicular rash without other apparent *** interviewed the legal guardians of the participants for demographic information and disease history after obtaining informed *** collected information on vaccination status from electronic vaccination records. Results:The 3 varicella vaccines in China(Varitrix from GlaxoSmithK- *** and Shanghai from Changchun and Shanghai Institutes of Biologic Products,respectively) had similar effectiveness:Varilrix 86.4% (95%confidence interval[CI]:72.***.93.2),Changchun 79.5%(95%CI: 58.1,90.0).and Shanghai 92.6%(95%Cl:68.***.98.2).Vaccine effective- ness was higher during the first year after vaccination than during the .subsequent 5 years,but the differences did not reach statistical significance. Conciusious:The varicella vaccines in China are highly effective in preventing clinical *** studies on laboratory-confirmed cases are needed to verify the change of vaccine-induced immunity over time.

关键词： chickenpox vaccine effectiveness waning immunity

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