Incorporating the mutational landscape of SARS-COV-2 variants and case-dependent vaccination rates into epidemic models

作     者：Mohammad Mihrab Chowdhury Md Rafiul Islam Md Sakhawat Hossain Nusrat Tabassum Angela Peace 

作者机构：Department of Mathematics and StatisticsTexas Tech UniversityLubbockTXUSA Department of MathematicsIowa State UniversityAmesIAUSA 

出 版 物：《Infectious Disease Modelling》 (传染病建模（英文）)

年 卷 期：2022年第7卷第2期

页      面：75-82页

学科分类：1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：supported by the National Science Foundation under the Grant No.(DMS-1815750) 

主　　题：Break-through variants Waning immunity Reinfection Non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs) Vaccination rate 

摘      要：Coronavirus Disease(COVID-19),which began as a small outbreak in Wuhan,China,in December 2019,became a global pandemic within months due to its high *** the absence of pharmaceutical treatment,various non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs)to contain the spread of COVID-19 brought the entire world to a *** almost a year of seemingly returning to normalcy with the world s quickest vaccine development,the emergence of more infectious and vaccine resistant coronavirus variants is bringing the situation back to where it was a year *** the light of this new situation,we conducted a study to portray the possible scenarios based on the three key factors:impact of interventions(pharmaceutical and NPIs),vaccination rate,and vaccine *** our study,we assessed two of the most crucial factors,transmissibility and vaccination rate,in order to reduce the spreading of COVID-19 in a simple but effective *** order to incorporate the time-varying mutational landscape of COVID-19 variants,we estimated a weighted transmissibility composed of the proportion of existing strains that naturally vary over ***,we consider time varying vaccination rates based on the number of daily new *** method for calculating the vaccination rate from past active cases is an effective approach in forecasting probable future scenarios as it actively tracks people s attitudes toward immunization as active case *** simulations show that if a large number of individuals cannot be vaccinated by ensuring high efficacy in a short period of time,adopting NPIs is the best approach to manage disease transmission with the emergence of new vaccine breakthrough and more infectious variants.