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A PRELIMINARY validation STUDY OF THE SEASONAL FORECAST OF CCCMA MODEL OVER CHINA

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2000年第3期14卷 268-279页

作者：董敏 Francis ZWIERS 叶正青 National Climate Center.Beijing 100081 Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Victoria.BC.Canada

In this study we validate the raw ensemble mean forecasts of the CCCma's GCM2 model against surface temperature and precipitation data obtained from 160 Chinese stations.It is found that despite the lagre biases,the model was able to produce seasonal anomalies that have properties that are reasonably close to those that are observed.This anomaly is the quantity of interest when forecasting seasonal climatic conditions.The root mean squared difference(RMSD) between the forecast and observed anomaly leads us to be modestly optimistic about the prospects for using dynamical models to forecast the interannual variability of some meteorological elements. The correlation analysis of the forecast and observation also supports the result given by the RMSD analysis and provides a tool for identify the forecast confidence level in various regions,

关键词： CCCma(Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis)model validation seasonal forecast

validation of the chronic liver disease questionnaire in Serbian patients

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2013年第30期19卷 4950-4957页

作者： Dusan Dj Popovic Nada V Kovacevic Darija B Kisic Tepavcevic Goran Z Trajkovic Tamara M Alempijevic Milan M Spuran Miodrag N Krstic Rada S Jesic Zobair M Younossi Tatjana D Pekmezovic Clinic for Gastroenterology Clinical Centre of Serbia Faculty of Medicine University of Belgrade Institute of Epidemiology Faculty of MedicineUniversity of Belgrade Institute of Statistics and Informatics Faculty of MedicineUniversity of Belgrade Center for Liver Diseases Department of MedicineInova Fairfax HospitalFalls ChurchAnnandale

AIM:To translate into Serbian and to investigate the validity of the cross-culturally adapted the chronic liver disease questionnaire(CLDQ).METHODS:The questionnaire was validated in 103 consecutive CLD patients treated between October 2009 and October 2010 at the Clinic for Gastroenterology,Clinical Centre of Serbia,Belgrade(Serbia).Exclusion criteria were:age 2)and liver transplantation.Evaluation of the CLDQ was done based on the following parameters:(1)acceptance is shown by the proportion of missing items;(2)internal reliabilities were assessed for multiple item scales by using Cronbach alpha coefficient;and(3)in order to assess whether the allocation of items in the domain corresponds to their distribution in the original questionnaire(construction validity),an exploratory factor analysis was conducted.Discriminatory validity was determined by comparing the corresponding CLDQ score/sub-score in patients with different severity of the diseases.RESULTS:The Serbian version of CLDQ questionnaire completed 98% patients.Proportion of missing items was 0.06%.The total time needed to fill the questionnaire was ranged from 8 to 15 min.Assistance in completing the questionnaire required 4.8% patients,while 2.9% needed help in reading,and 1.9% involved writing assistance.The mean age of the selected patients was 53.8 ± 12.9 years and 54.4% were men.Average CLDQ score was 4.62 ± 1.11.Cronbach's alpha for the whole scale was 0.93.Reliability for all domains was above 0.70,except for the domain "Activity"(0.49).The exploratory factor analysis model revealed 6 factors with eigenvalue of greater than 1,explaining 69.7% of cumulative variance.The majority of the items(66%)in the Serbian version of the CLDQ presented the highest loading weight in the domain assigned by the CLDQ developers:"Fatigue"(5/5),"Emotional function"(6/8),"Worry"(5/5),"Abdominal symptom

关键词： Chronic liver disease Quality of life Questionnaire validation Factor analysis

In silico studies of magnesium-based implants: A review of the current stage and challenges

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Journal of Magnesium and Alloys 2022年第11期10卷 2968-2996页

作者： Tamadur Albaraghtheh Regine Willumeit-Römer Berit Zeller-Plumhoff Helmholtz-Zentrum hereon GmbH Institute of Metallic BiomaterialsMax-Planck-Str.1Geesthacht 21502Germany

In silico methods to study biodegradable implants have recently received increasing attention due to their potential in reducing experimental time and cost. An important application case for in silico methods are magnesium(Mg)-based biodegradable implants, as they represent a powerful alternative to traditional materials used for temporary orthopaedic applications. Controlling Mg alloy degradation is critical to designing an implant that supports the bone healing process. To simulate different aspects of this biodegradation process, several mathematical models have been proposed with the ultimate aim of replacing laboratory experiments with computational modeling. In this review, we provide a comprehensive and critical discussion of the published models and their performance with respect to capturing the complexity of the biodegradation process. This complexity is presented initially. Additionally, the present review discusses the different approaches of optimizing and quantifying the different sources of errors and uncertainties within the proposed models.

关键词： Biodegradable implants Degradation In silico Phenomenological approach Physical approach validation Verification Uncertainty quantification Mg

Update of transmission modelling and projections of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the Mandoul focus, Chad

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2022年第1期11卷 34-46页

作者： Kat S.Rock Ching-I Huang Ronald E.Crump Paul R.Bessell Paul E.Brown Inaki Tirados Philippe Solano Marina Antillon Albert Picado Severin Mbainda Justin Darnas Emily H.Crowley Steve J.Torr Mallaye Peka Mathematics Institute University of WarwickAcademic Loop RoadCoventryCV47ALUK Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology&Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research(SBIDER) University of WarwickAcademic Loop RoadCoventryCV47ALUK Independent Consultant EdinburghUK Department of Vector Biology Liverpool School of Tropical MedicineLiverpoolUK Institut de Recherche pour le Développement UMR INTERTRYP IRD-CIRADUniversitéde Montpellier34398MontpellierFrance Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute BaselSwitzerland University of Basel BaselSwitzerland Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics(FIND) GenevaSwitzerland Programme National de Lutte contre la Trypanosomiase Humaine Africaine(PNLTHA) MoundouChad

Background:In recent years,a programme of vector control,screening and treatment of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis(gHAT)infections led to a rapid decline in cases in the Mandoul focus of Chad.To represent the biology of transmission between humans and tsetse,we previously developed a mechanistic transmission model,fitted to data between 2000 and 2013 which suggested that transmission was interrupted by 2015.The present study outlines refinements to the model to:(1)Assess whether elimination of transmission has already been achieved despite low-level case reporting;(2)quantify the role of intensified interventions in transmission reduction;and(3)predict the trajectory of gHAT in Mandoul for the next decade under different strategies.Method:Our previous gHAT transmission model for Mandoul was updated using human case data(2000-2019)and a series of model refinements.These include how diagnostic specificity is incorporated into the model and improvements to the fitting method(increased variance in observed case reporting and how underreporting and improvements to passive screening are captured).A side-by-side comparison of fitting to case data was performed between the models.Results:We estimated that passive detection rates have increased due to improvements in diagnostic availability in fixed health facilities since 2015,by 2.1-fold for stage 1 detection,and 1.5-fold for stage 2.We find that whilst the diagnostic algorithm for active screening is estimated to be highly specific(95%credible interval(CI):99.9-100%,Specificity=99.9%),the high screening and low infection levels mean that some recently reported cases with no parasitological confirmation might be false positives.We also find that the focus-wide tsetse reduction estimated through model fitting(95%CI:96.1-99.6%,Reduction=99.1%)is comparable to the reduction previously measured by the decline in tsetse catches from monitoring traps.In line with previous results,the model suggests that transmission was interrupted in 2015 due to intensified interven

关键词： Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) Modelling Elimination of transmission validation Tsetse Vector control Glossina Diagnostics

validation for equation of state in wide regime:Copper as prototype

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Matter and Radiation at Extremes 2016年第2期1卷 123-131页

作者： Haifeng Liu Haifeng Song Qili Zhang Gongmu Zhang Yanhong Zhao Laboratory of Computational Physics Institute of Applied Physics and Computational MathematicsBeijing 100088China

In this paper we introduce the wide regime equation of state(WEOS)developed in Institute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics(IAPCM).A semi-empirical model of the WEOS is given by a thermodynamically complete potential of the Helmholtz free energy which combines several theoretical models and has some adjustable parameters calibrated via some experimental and theoretical data.The validation methods of the equation of state in wide regime are presented using copper as a prototype.The results of the WEOS are well consistent with the available theoretical and experimental data,including ab initio cold curve under compression,isotherm,Hugoniot,off-Hugoniot and sound velocity data.It enhances our confidence in the accuracy of the WEOS,which is very important for the validation and verification of equation of state in high temperature and pressure technology.

关键词： validation Wide-range equation of state Copper Ab initio cold curve Room-temperature isotherm Hugoniot Velocity of sound

Development and validation of RP-HPLC method for determination of acetazolamide, furosemide and phenytoin extemporaneous suspensions

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Asian Journal of Pharmaceutical Sciences 2016年第1期11卷 138-139页

作者： Warisada Sila-on Salinee Na-Ranong Sirilak Rakrod Sarote Ornlaor Zongporn Joungmunkong Ubon Ratchathani University Ubon Ratchathani 34190Thailand Division of Pharmacy Sappasit Prasong HospitalUbon RatchathaniThailand

The development of the extemporaneous preparations allows physicians to adjust the dose for pediatric patients and provides for a more convenient dosage vehicle for those patients with difficulty swallowing tablets[1].As such,the production unit of pharmacy division,Sappasit Prasong Hospital,Ubon Ratchathani province,prepared the extemporaneous formulations such as Acetazolamide(AM),Furosemide(FM)and Phenytoin(PT)powder for suspensions.The extemporaneous suspensions of 10 mg/mL AM,2 mg/mL FM and 10 mg/mL PT were prepared from 250 mg Diamox?,40 mg Lasix?and 50 mg Dilantin?tablets,respectively and diluted with syrup vehicle.

关键词： Development and validation of RPHPLC method Extemporaneous suspensions

Comparative Evaluation and Comprehensive Analysis of Machine Learning Models for Regression Problems

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Data Intelligence 2022年第3期4卷 620-652页

作者： Boran Sekeroglu Yoney Kirsal Ever Kamil Dimililer Fadi Al-Turjman Information Systems Engineering Department Near East UniversityNicosiaCyprusMersin 10Turkey Software Engineering Department Near East UniversityNicosiaCyprusMersin 10Turkey Electrical and Electronic Engineering Department Near East UniversityNicosiaCyprusMersin 10Turkey Artificial Intelligence Engineering Department Near East UniversityNicosiaCyprusMersin 10Turkey Research Centre for AI and IoT Near East UniversityNicosiaCyprusMersin 10Turkey

Artificial intelligence and machine learning applications are of significant importance almost in every field of human life to solve problems or support human experts. However, the determination of the machine learning model to achieve a superior result for a particular problem within the wide real-life application areas is still a challenging task for researchers. The success of a model could be affected by several factors such as dataset characteristics, training strategy and model responses. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis is required to determine model ability and the efficiency of the considered strategies. This study implemented ten benchmark machine learning models on seventeen varied datasets. Experiments are performed using four different training strategies 60:40, 70:30, and 80:20 hold-out and five-fold cross-validation techniques. We used three evaluation metrics to evaluate the experimental results: mean squared error, mean absolute error, and coefficient of determination(R2score). The considered models are analyzed, and each model’s advantages, disadvantages, and data dependencies are indicated. As a result of performed excess number of experiments, the deep Long-Short Term Memory(LSTM) neural network outperformed other considered models, namely, decision tree, linear regression, support vector regression with a linear and radial basis function kernels, random forest, gradient boosting, extreme gradient boosting, shallow neural network, and deep neural network. It has also been shown that cross-validation has a tremendous impact on the results of the experiments and should be considered for the model evaluation in regression studies where data mining or selection is not performed.

关键词： Machine learning Regression Comparative evaluation Analysis validation

validation of the 8-Item Morisky Medication Adherence Scale in Chronically Ill Ambulatory Patients in Rural Greece

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Open Journal of Nursing 2016年第3期6卷 158-169页

作者： Sotirios Plakas Dimos Mastrogiannis Marianna Mantzorou Theodoula Adamakidou Georgia Fouka Angeliki Bouziou Chrysoula Tsiou Donald E. Morisky Department of Nursing Technological Educational Institution (TEI) of Athens Athens Greece Research Unit for Nursing Rehabilitation of the Chronically Ill Technological Educational Institution (TEI) of Athens Athens Greece Department of Nursing Technological Educational Institute of Central Greece Lamia Greece General Hospital of Aitoloakarnania Agrinion Greece Department of Community Health Sciences UCLA Fielding School of Public Health Los Angeles CA USA

Objective: To validate a Greek version of the structured self-reported 8-item Morisky Medication Adherence Scale (MMAS-8) and determine its psychometric properties in patients with chronic illnesses. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in a small public hospital and a public health care centre, in a rural town in western Greece. The sample consisted of 100 patients with various chronic illnesses. Data were collected between January-May 2011, on the Greek version of the MMAS-8 and Beliefs about Medicines Questionnaire (BMQ). Results: Scale’s reliability analysis revealed an overall Cronbach’s alpha of 0.753 and the corrected item to total correlations, were greater than 0.30 for each of the 8 items comprising the medication adherence scale, showing good internal consistency. Convergent validity was supported by a significant correlation between the present scale’s total score and the BMQ-Specific Necessity score (Spearman’s rho = 0.492, p < 0.001). Conclusion: The current study showed acceptable reliability and validity of the Greek version of the 8-item MMAS to measure adherence to medications for various chronic illnesses. The validated Greek version of the MMAS-8 can help towards understanding adherence barriers in Greece so as to develop effective strategies to increase adherence and reduce the costs.

关键词： Adherence validation Chronic Illnesses Morisky MMAS-8 Scale

validation of the Daily Diary of Fatigue Symptoms—Fibromyalgia (DFS-Fibro)

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Open Journal of Rheumatology and Autoimmune Diseases 2013年第2期3卷 92-103页

作者： Claire Burbridge Tara Symonds Louise Humphrey Rob Arbuckle Ian Hirsch Laurence Whelan Adelphi Values Ltd. Bollington UK AstraZeneca UK Limited Macclesfield UK Pfizer Global R&D Sandwich UK Pfizer Ltd. Walton Oaks UK

Introduction: Fatigue is an important fibromyalgia (FM) symptom, but existing measures of fatigue are unlikely to meet regulatory standards for clinical trial use. We describe the development and validation of the Daily Diary of Fatigue Symptoms—Fibromyalgia (DFS-Fibro), a 24-hour recall, patient-reported outcome (PRO) measure of fatigue in FM that is administered electronically (ePRO). Methods: There were 3 phases of work: 1) item generation based on concept elicitation interviews with FM patients, with clinical relevance confirmed by expert clinician review;2) pilot testing/cognitive debriefing interviews with FM patients;and 3) psychometric validation using data from a methodology study with 145 FM patients. The measure was finalised based on both qualitative and quantitative findings. Results: Twenty-three items were generated in phase 1, some minor revisions were made following the pilot testing and cognitive debriefing (phase 2) but none were deleted. All patients found the measure easy to understand and use. Item reduction was conducted taking into account both the initial psychometric data and the earlier qualitative research, resulting in a final 5 item measure of the “symptom” of fatigue. The 5-item DFS-Fibro had very high internal consistency (alpha = 0.99), and strong test-re-test reliability (r > 0.84), convergent validity and known-groups validity. Conclusion: The DFS-Fibro has strong psychometric properties and strong face and content validity for the measurement of fatigue in FM.

关键词： Fatigue Fibromyalgia Patient Reported Psychometric validation Qualitative Questionnaire Development Diary ePRO