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Malaria transmission potential in the Three Gorges Reservoir of the Yangtze River, China

Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2013年第1期26卷 54-62页

作者： WANG Duo Quan TANG Lin Hua GU Zhen Cheng ZHENG Xiang JIANG Wei Kang National Institute of Parasitic Disease Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention WHO Collaborating Center for Malaria Schistosomiasis and filariasis

Objective To define and evaluate the malaria transmission potential in the Yangtze River, following construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir. Methods Six villages, namely, Kaixian, Fengjie, Wanzhou, Fuling, Yubei, and Zigui were selected for investigating the malaria transmission potential in the reservoir. transmission potential was estimated by mathematical modeling and evaluation of the local malaria situation. Factors that influenced the transmission potential were analyzed using Poisson regression analysis in combination with Grey Systematic Theory （based on evaluation by the Delphi method）. Results Indirect fluorescent antibody data and the incidence of malaria in the local population were consistent with the malaria transmission potential calculated for the area. Multivariate Poisson regression analysis showed a statistically significant association between the riparian zone and the man‐biting rate. Conclusion The risk of a malaria epidemic can be forecasted using the malaria transmission potential parameters investigated here which was closely correlated with the riparian zone.

关键词： Malaria transmission potential Yangtze River Three Gorges Reservoir Riparian zone

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Early transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in a southern hemisphere setting:Lima-Peru:February 29^(th)-March 30^(th),2020

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2020年第1期5卷 338-345页

作者： César V.Munayco Amna Tariq Richard Rothenberg Gabriela G.Soto-Cabezas Mary F.Reyes Andree Valle Leonardo Rojas-Mezarina César Cabezas Manuel Loayza Gerardo Chowell 无 Centro Nacional de Epidemiología Prevencion y Control de EnfermedadesPeruvian Ministry of HealthLimaPeru Department of Population Health Sciences School of Public HealthGeorgia State UniversityAtlantaGAUSA Instituto Nacional de Salud Peruvian Ministry of HealthLimaPeru Peru COVID-19 working group

The COVID-19 pandemic that emerged in Wuhan China has generated substantial morbidity and mortality impact around the world during the last four *** daily trend in reported cases has been rapidly rising in Latin America since March 2020 with the great majority of the cases reported in Brazil followed by Peru as of April 15th,*** Peru implemented a range of social distancing measures soon after the confirmation of its first case on March 6th,2020,the daily number of new COVID-19 cases continues to accumulate in this *** assessed the early COVID-19 transmission dynamics and the effect of social distancing interventions in Lima,*** estimated the reproduction number,R,during the early transmission phase in Lima from the daily series of imported and autochthonous cases by the date of symptoms onset as of March 30th,*** also assessed the effect of social distancing interventions in Lima by generating short-term forecasts grounded on the early transmission dynamics before interventions were put in *** to the implementation of the social distancing measures in Lima,the local incidence curve by the date of symptoms onset displays near exponential growth dynamics with the mean scaling of growth parameter,p,estimated at 0.96(95%CI:0.87,1.0)and the reproduction number at 2.3(95%CI:2.0,2.5).Our analysis indicates that school closures and other social distancing interventions have helped slow down the spread of the novel coronavirus,with the nearly exponential growth trend shifting to an approximately linear growth trend soon after the broad scale social distancing interventions were put in place by the *** the interventions appear to have slowed the transmission rate in Lima,the number of new COVID-19 cases continue to accumulate,highlighting the need to strengthen social distancing and active case finding efforts to mitigate disease transmission in the region.

关键词： COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 transmission potential Short-term forecast Reproduction number Generalized growth model

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