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social distancing and testing as optimal strategies against the spread of COVID-19 in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 729-742页

作者： Kristina P.Vatcheva Josef Sifuentes Tamer Oraby Jose Campo Maldonado Timothy Huber María Cristina Villalobos School of Mathematical&Statistical Sciences University of Texas Rio Grande ValleyBrownsvilleTX78520USA School of Mathematical&Statistical Sciences University of Texas Rio Grande ValleyEdinburgTX78539USA School of Medicine The University of Texas Rio Grande ValleyEdinburgTX78539USA

At the beginning of August 2020,the Rio Grande Valley(RGV)of Texas experienced a rapid increase of coronavirus disease 2019(abbreviated as COVID-19)cases and *** study aims to determine the optimal levels of effective social distancing and testing to slow the virus spread at the outset of the *** use an age-stratified eight compartment epidemiological model to depict COVID-19 transmission in the community and within *** a simulated 120-day outbreak period data we obtain a post 180-days period optimal control strategy *** results show that easing social distancing between adults by the end of the 180-day period requires very strict testing a month later and then daily testing rates of 5%followed by isolation of positive *** social distancing rates in adults from 50%to 25%requires both children and seniors to maintain social distancing rates of 50%for nearly the entire period while maintaining maximum testing rates of children and seniors for 150 of the 180 days considered in this *** have higher contact rates which leads to transmission based on our model,emphasizing the need for caution when considering school reopenings.

关键词： COVID-19 Mathematical modeling Optimal control Rio Grande Valley(RGV) testing and social distancing School reopening

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