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Social distancing and testing as optimal strategies against the spread of COVID-19 in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas

作     者:Kristina P.Vatcheva Josef Sifuentes Tamer Oraby Jose Campo Maldonado Timothy Huber María Cristina Villalobos 

作者机构:School of Mathematical&Statistical SciencesUniversity of Texas Rio Grande ValleyBrownsvilleTX78520USA School of Mathematical&Statistical SciencesUniversity of Texas Rio Grande ValleyEdinburgTX78539USA School of MedicineThe University of Texas Rio Grande ValleyEdinburgTX78539USA 

出 版 物:《Infectious Disease Modelling》 (传染病建模(英文))

年 卷 期:2021年第6卷第1期

页      面:729-742页

学科分类:1204[管理学-公共管理] 1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 1001[医学-基础医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 100201[医学-内科学(含:心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 0701[理学-数学] 10[医学] 

主  题:COVID-19 Mathematical modeling Optimal control Rio Grande Valley(RGV) Testing and social distancing School reopening 

摘      要:At the beginning of August 2020,the Rio Grande Valley(RGV)of Texas experienced a rapid increase of coronavirus disease 2019(abbreviated as COVID-19)cases and *** study aims to determine the optimal levels of effective social distancing and testing to slow the virus spread at the outset of the *** use an age-stratified eight compartment epidemiological model to depict COVID-19 transmission in the community and within *** a simulated 120-day outbreak period data we obtain a post 180-days period optimal control strategy *** results show that easing social distancing between adults by the end of the 180-day period requires very strict testing a month later and then daily testing rates of 5%followed by isolation of positive *** social distancing rates in adults from 50%to 25%requires both children and seniors to maintain social distancing rates of 50%for nearly the entire period while maintaining maximum testing rates of children and seniors for 150 of the 180 days considered in this *** have higher contact rates which leads to transmission based on our model,emphasizing the need for caution when considering school reopenings.

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