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system dynamics Forecasting on Taiwan Power Supply Chain

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Computer systems Science & Engineering 2022年第6期41卷 1191-1205页

作者： Zhiqiu Yu Shuo-Yan Chou Phan Nguyen Ky Phuc Tiffany Hui-Kuang Yu Department of Industrial Management National Taiwan University of Science and TechnologyTaipei10607Taiwan Industrial Engineering and Management Department International UniversityHo Chi Minh City70000Vietnam Department of Public Finance Feng Chia UniversityTaichungTaiwan

This research aims to study the sustainability of Taiwan power supplychain based on system dynamics forecasting. The paper tries to investigate electricity shortage effects not only on the industrial side, but also from the standpointof society. In our model, different forecasting methods such as linear regression,time series analysis, and gray forecasting are also considered to predict the parameters. Further tests such as the structure, dimension, historical fit, and sensitivityof the model are also conducted in this paper. Through analysis forecasting result,we believe that the demand for electricity in Taiwan will continue to increase to acertain level for a period of time in the future. This phenomenon is closely relatedto Taiwan’s economic development, especially industrial development. We alsopoint out that electricity prices in Taiwan do not match with high industrialdemand, and that prices are still slightly low. Finally, the future growth trend ofTaiwan’s electricity demand has not changed, and ensuring adequate supply tomeet electricity demand to prevent potential power shortages will pose somedifficulty.

关键词： system dynamics taiwan power supply chain electricity demand

system dynamics simulation of the civil-military integrated innovation system of military enterprises

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Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology 2013年第1期22卷 106-113页

作者：张纪海王超 School of Management and Economics Beijing Institute of Technology

Civil-military inosculation of military enterprises benefits national defense industries by promoting the building of civil-military inosculation innovation system. To analyze the operation mechanism of the civil-military integrated innovation system of the military enterprises under the new situation, the system dynamics method is used to study the feedback relations among the factors and structure of the system and the Anylogic software is used to establish the simulation model . The simulation results indicate that： the degree of enthusiasm of private enterprises to participate in the defense industry, the degree of information sharing and the degree of cooperation between the mili- tary enterprises and universities and research institutions are extremely important in the civil-military integrated innovation system. According to the simulation results, some targeted suggestions are put forward to strengthen the innovational civil-military integrated system building of the military enter- prises.

关键词： civil-military integration innovation system dynamics military enterprises

system dynamics Approach to Urban Water Demand Forecasting—A Case Study of Tianjin

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Transactions of Tianjin University 2009年第1期15卷 70-74页

作者：张宏伟张雪花张宝安 School of Environmental Science and Engineering Tianjin University Department of Environmental system Analysis Tianjin Polytechnic University

A system dynamics approach to urban water demand forecasting was developed based on the analysis of urban water resources system, which was characterized by multi-feedback and nonlinear interactions among sys-tem elements. As an example, Tianjin water resources system dynamic model was set up to forecast water resources demand of the planning years. The practical verification showed that the relative error was lower than 10%. Fur-thermore, through the comparison and analysis of the simulation results under different development modes pre-sented in this paper, the forecasting results of the water resources demand of Tianjin was achieved based on sustain-able utilization strategy of water resources.

关键词： system dynamics water resources demand forecasting nonlinearity

The Impact of Population Aging on Housing Demand in China Based on system dynamics

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Journal of systems Science & Complexity 2021年第1期34卷 351-380页

作者： MOU Xindi LI Xiuting DONG Jichang School of Economics and Management Beijing Information Science&Technology UniversityBeijing 100192China School of Economics and Management University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China

In recent years, the proportion of China's elderly population is gradually increasing, and the real estate market is changing dramatically. Consequently the impact of population aging on housing demand has become increasingly prominent. On the theoretical basis of the relationship between population aging, family structure and housing demand, this paper firstly constructs a system dynamics model of the impact of population aging and family structure on housing demand in China. Then,the model is simulated, and several scenarios of population, family structure, and real estate policies are set up. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: China's population will rise at first and then decrease, reaching a peak of 1.401 billion by 2023. As the proportion of elderly population increases, the degree of population aging is becoming increasingly serious. The size of the family will gradually shrink to 2.39 people per household in 2050. The housing demand will increase first and then decrease. Through the results of scenario simulation, this paper puts forward the following suggestion to effectively balance the housing demand in China: Completely relaxing family planning policies,imposing a real estate tax, canceling the pre-sale policy, and raising the loan rate.

关键词： Family structure housing demand population aging system dynamics

Research on strategic risk identification method of equipment system development based on system dynamics

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系统工程与电子技术:英文版 2023年第5期34卷 1225-1234页

作者： WANG Xinfeng WANG Tao ZHOU Xin WANG Yanfeng College of systems Engineering National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha 410073China

Strategic management of equipment system develop-ment must attach importance to effective strategic risk *** at the identification of strategic risk of equipment system development,firstly,the source of strategic risk of equip-ment system development is analyzed and *** on this,a causal loop diagram of strategic risk of equipment sys-tem development based on system dynamics is *** system dynamics analysis software Vensim PLE is used to carry out the risk influencing factors analysis,risk consequences ana-lysis,risk feedback loop identification and corresponding pre-control measures,and achieves a good risk identification effect.

关键词： equipment system development strategy manage-ment strategic risk management risk identification system dynamics loop diagram of causality

Impact of the synergy between technology management and technological capability on new product development:a system dynamics approach

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Journal of systems Engineering and Electronics 2022年第1期33卷 105-119页

作者： MA Qian WU Weiwei LIU Yexin LIANG Zhou KOU Lingzhi School of Management Harbin Institute of TechnologyHarbin 150001China Beijing Institute of Aerospace Information Beijing 100854China School of Economics and Management Harbin Institute of Technology at WeihaiWeihai 264209China

This paper employs system dynamics to explore how the synergy between technology management and technological capability affects new product *** results show that the synergy between technology management and technological capability has positive impact on new product ***, the leading synergy processes between technology management and technological capability in different new product development stages are *** paper deepens the theoretical understanding of how to achieve new product development, and also provides useful guidance for firms to implement new product development.

关键词： technology management technological capability new product development system dynamics

A computational study on system dynamics of an ocean current turbine

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Journal of Hydrodynamics 2018年第3期30卷 395-402页

作者： Jo-Ti Wu Jiahn-Homg Chen Ching-Yeh Hsin Fomg-Chen Chiu Department of systems Engineering and Naval Architecture National Taiwan Ocean University Keelung China Department of Engineering Science and Ocean Engineering National Taiwan University Taipei China

In this paper, we present the study of system dynamics of the floating kuroshio turbine（FKT） system which is designed to harness ocean current energy. We focus on the mooring line system design and its interaction with the FKT system. The effects of line diameter and two different auxiliary line systems were studied. Their responses in waves were also investigated. We integrated several commercial and in-house packages. The system buoyancy and weight and their centers were estimated using the Rhino software. The system hydrodynamic coefficients were obtained through WAMIT, system drag coefficient through FLUENT, turbine propulsive force through lifting surface code, and system dynamics through Orca Flex. The results show that the mooring line system can create strong influence on the FKT system operations in the ocean current environments.

关键词： Ocean current energy current turbine system dynamics mooring line system

Ship maneuvering prediction based on virtual captive model test and system dynamics approaches

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Journal of Hydrodynamics 2022年第2期34卷 259-276页

作者： Peng Du Lu Cheng Zi-jian Tang A.Ouahsine Hai-bao Hu Y.Hoarau Research and Development Institute of Northwestern Polytechnical University in Shenzhen Shenzhen518057China School of Marine Science and Technology Northwestern Polytechnical UniversityXi’an710072China Laboratoire Roberval UT Compiègne-Sorbonne UniversitéCompiègneFrance ICUBE Laboratory University of StrasbourgStrasbourgFrance

The maneuvering simulation is carried out through the continuous captive model test and the system dynamics *** mathematical maneuvering group(MMG)model is implemented in the virtual captive model tests by using the computational fluid dynamics(CFD)*** oblique towing test(OTT),the circular motion test(CMT),the rudder force test and the open water test are performed to obtain the hydrodynamic derivatives of the hull,the rudder and the propeller,and the results are validated by experimental *** designing the tests,the number of cases is reduced to a low level,to allow us to evaluate the maneuverability with a low cost and in a short *** these obtained coefficients,the system-based maneuvering simulations are conducted to calculate the position and the attitude of the ship,with results in agreement with the free running test *** procedure can also be used for other hull forms,with reduced workload and with convenience for maneuvering simulation tasks.

关键词： Maneuvering simulation captive model test(CMT) system dynamics computational fluid dynamics(CFD) Hydrodynamic derivatives

dynamics OF KNOWLEDGE ACCUMULATION IN TECHNOLOGY FOLLOWER COUNTRIES: A system dynamics APPROACH

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Journal of systems Science and systems Engineering 2009年第3期18卷 312-340页

作者： Ehsan SHAFIEI Mohammad-Bagher GHOFRANI Yadollah SABOOHI Power and Energy Planning Department Ministry of Energy TehranIran Department of Energy Engineering Sharif University of Technology TehranIran Sharif Energy Research Inst. Sharif University of Technology TehranIran

In this paper the process of knowledge accumulation for a particular technology is studied. Two countries, say the technology follower and the technology frontier, are considered. The frontier＇s knowledge growth is determined by its R＆D efforts on the technology. The level of knowledge stock for the follower country is augmented by its R＆D activities for the technology and absorbing some of the external knowledge through spillover from the frontier. The extent to which the follower is able to exploit the external knowledge depends on technological gap, absorptive capacity, absorption time and degree of spillover. New concepts such as natural and enhanced degree of spillover, background and innovative knowledge and absorption speed are introduced in the present work to deeply explore the process of knowledge spillover. The factors influencing the knowledge development in the long term are simultaneously studied in an integrated structure provided by the system dynamics approach. This framework shows the responses to the changes and provides the basis for examining the interactions among the variables over time.

关键词： Knowledge spillover technology follower absorptive capacity absorption speed,knowledge complexity system dynamics