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surface temperature Changes Projected by FGOALS Models under Low Warming Scenarios in CMIP5 and CMIP6

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第2期38卷 203-220页

作者： Shang-Min LONG Kai-Ming HU Gen LI Gang HUANG Xia QU Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting Ministry of Natural ResourcesHohai UniversityNanjing 210098China College of Oceanography Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China State key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics and Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

To meet the low warming targets proposed in the 2015 Paris Agreement,substantial reduction in carbon emissions is needed in the *** is important to know how surface climates respond under low warming *** present study investigates the surface temperature changes under the low-forcing scenario of Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP2.6)and its updated version(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,SSP1-2.6)by the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System(FGOALS)models participating in phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5 and CMIP6,respectively).In both scenarios,radiative forcing(RF)first increases to a peak of 3 W m^−2 around 2045 and then decreases to 2.6 W m^−2 by *** mean surface air temperature rises in all FGOALS models when RF increases(RF increasing stage)and declines or holds nearly constant when RF decreases(RF decreasing stage).The surface temperature change is distinct in its sign and magnitude between the RF increasing and decreasing stages over the land,Arctic,North Atlantic subpolar region,and Southern ***,the regional surface temperature change pattern displays pronounced model-to-model spread during both the RF increasing and decreasing stages,mainly due to large intermodel differences in climatological surface temperature,ice-albedo feedback,natural variability,and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation *** pattern of tropical precipitation change is generally anchored by the spatial variations of relative surface temperature change(deviations from the tropical mean value)in the FGOALS ***,the projected changes in the updated FGOALS models are closer to the multi-model ensemble mean results than their predecessors,suggesting that there are noticeable improvements in the future projections of FGOALS models from CMIP5 to CMIP6.

关键词： surface temperature low warming targets Arctic amplification AMOC Southern Ocean

Spatio-temporal correlation between human activity intensity and land surface temperature on the north slope of Tianshan Mountains

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2022年第10期32卷 1935-1955页

作者： CHEN Hongjin LIU Lin ZHANG Zhengyong LIU Ya TIAN Hao KANG Ziwei WANG Tongxia ZHANG Xueying School of Science Shihezi UniversityShihezi 832000XinjiangChina Key Laboratory of Oasis Town and Mountain-basin System Ecology of Xinjiang Bingtuan Shihezi 832003XinjiangChina

Research on the spatio-temporal correlation between the intensity of human activities and the temperature of earth surfaces is of great significance in many aspects,including fully understanding the causes and mechanisms of climate change,actively adapting to climate change,pursuing rational development,and protecting the ecological *** the north slope of Tianshan Mountains,located in the arid area of northwestern China and extremely sensitive to climate change,as the research area,this study retrieves the surface temperature of the mountain based on MODIS data,while characterizing the intensity of human activities thereby data on the night light,population distribution and land *** evolution characteristics of human activity intensity and surface temperature in the study area from 2000 to 2018 were analyzed,and the spatio-temporal correlation between them was further *** is found that:(1)The average human activity intensity(0.11)in the research area has kept relatively low since this century,and the overall trend has been slowly rising in a stepwise manner(0.0024·a-1);in addition,the increase in human activity intensity has lagged behind that in construction land and population by 1-2 years.(2)The annual average surface temperature in the area is 7.18℃with a pronounced *** rate of change(0.02℃·a-1)is about 2.33 times that of the *** striking boost in spring(0.068℃·a-1)contributes the most to the overall warming ***,the surface temperature is low in the south and high in the north,due to the prominent influence of the underlying surface characteristics,such as elevation and vegetation coverage.(3)The intensity of human activity and the surface temperature are remarkably positively correlated in the human activity areas there,showing a strong distribution in the east section and a weak one in the west *** expression of its spatial differentiation and correlation is comprehensively affected by such factors as

关键词： human activity intensity surface temperature nighttime light data spatio-temporal correlation north slope of Tianshan Mountains

Comprehensive Study on the Influence of Evapotranspiration and Albedo on surface temperature Related to Changes in the Leaf Area Index

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2015年第7期32卷 935-942页

作者： ZHU Jiawen ZENG Xiaodong International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

Many studies have investigated the influence of evapotranspiration and albedo and emphasize their separate effects but ignore their interactive influences by changing vegetation status in large amplitudes. This paper focuses on the comprehensive influence of evapotranspiration and albedo on surface temperature by changing the leaf area index （LAD between 30^-90~N. Two LAI datasets with seasonally different amplitudes of vegetation change between 30^-90~N were used in the simulations. Seasonal differences between the results of the simulations are compared, and the major findings are as follows. （1） The interactive effects of evapotranspiration and albedo on surface temperature were different over different regions during three seasons [March-April-May （MAM）, June-July-August （JJA）, and September-October-November （SON）], i.e., they were always the same over the southeastern United States during these three seasons but were opposite over most regions between 30°-90°N during JJA. （2） Either evapotranspiration or albedo tended to be dominant over different areas and during different seasons. For example, evapotranspiration dominated almost all regions between 30^-90~N during JJA, whereas albedo played a dominant role over northwestern Eurasia during MAM and over central Eurasia during SON. （3） The response of evapotranspiration and albedo to an increase in LAI with different ranges showed different paces and signals. With relatively small amplitudes of increased LAI, the rate of the relative increase in evapotranspiration was quick, and positive changes happened in albedo. But both relative changes in evapotranspiration and albedo tended to be gentle, and the ratio of negative changes of albedo increased with relatively large increased amplitudes of LAI.

关键词： surface temperature evapotranspiration albedo leaf area index comprehensive influence

Variation of surface temperature during the Last Millennium in a Simulation with the FGOALS-gl Climate System Model

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2013年第3期30卷 699-712页

作者：张洁 Laurent LI 周天军辛晓歌 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/CNRS Université Paris 6 National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration

A reasonable past millennial climate simulation relies heavily on the specified external forcings, including both natural and anthropogenic forcing agents. In this paper, we examine the surface temperature responses to specified external forcing agents in a millennium-scale transient climate simulation with the fast version of LASG IAP Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model （FGOALS-gl） developed in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics （LASG/IAP）. The model presents a reasonable performance in comparison with reconstructions of surface temperature. Differentiated from significant changes in the 20th century at the global scale, changes during the natural-forcing-dominant period are mainly manifested in the Northern Hemisphere. Seasonally, modeled significant changes are more pronounced during the wintertime at higher latitudes. This may be a manifestation of polar amplification associated with sea-ice-temperature positive feedback. The climate responses to total external forcings can explain about half of the climate variance during the whole millennium period, especially at decadal timescales. surface temperature in the Antarctic shows heterogeneous and insignificant changes during the preindustrial period and the climate response to external forcings is undetectable due to the strong internal variability. The model response to specified external forcings is modulated by cloud radiative forcing （CRF）. The CRF acts against the fluctuations of external forcings. Effects of clouds are manifested in shortwave radiation by changes in cloud water during the natural-forcing-dominant period, but mainly in longwave radiation by a decrease in cloud amount in the ant hropogenic- forcing-dominant period.

关键词： last millennium external forcing surface temperature cloud radiative forcing climate system model

Theoretical analysis of the surface temperature regulation of an infrared false target subjected to periodical ambient conditions

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Defence Technology（防务技术） 2016年第5期12卷 360-366页

作者： Shi-min LI Hong YE Qi-zhao LIN Department of Thermal Science and Energy Engineering University of Science and Technology of China

Infrared false target is an important mean to induce the infrared-guided weapons,and the key issue is how to keep the surface temperature of the infrared false target to be the same as that of the object to be ***-dimensional heat transfer models of a metal plate and imitative material were established to explore the influences of the thermophysical properties of imitative material on the surface temperature difference（STD） between the metal plate and imitative material which were subjected to periodical ambient *** is elucidated that the STD is determined by the imitative material’s dimensionless thickness（dim*,） and the thermal inertia(Pim).When dim* is above 1.0,the STD is invariable as long as Pim is a *** if the dimensionless thickness of metal plate（d,m*） is also larger than 1.0,the STD approaches to zero as long as Pimis the same as the thermal inertia of metal plate（Pm）.When dim* is between 0.08 and 1,the STD varies irregularly with Pim and dim*.However,if dm* is also in the range of 0.08-1,the STD approaches to zero on condition that Pim=Pm and dim*= dm*.If dim*,is below 0.08,the STD is unchanged when Pimdim* is a *** if dm* is also less than 0.08,the STD approaches to zero as long as Pimdim* = Pmdm*.Furthermore,an applicationoriented discussion indicates that the imitative material can be both light and thin via the application of the phase change material with a preset STD because of its high specific heat capacity during the phase transition process.

关键词： Infrared false target surface temperature Periodical ambient conditions Thermal inertia Dimensionless thickness

Understanding the surface temperature Cold Bias in CMIP5 AGCMs over the Tibetan Plateau

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2017年第12期34卷 1447-1460页

作者： Xiaolei CHEN Yimin LIU Guoxiong WU State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

The temperature biases of 28 CMIP5 AGCMs are evaluated over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) for the period 1979–2005. The results demonstrate that the majority of CMIP5 models underestimate annual and seasonal mean surface 2-m air temperatures(Tas) over the TP. In addition, the ensemble of the 28 AGCMs and half of the individual models underestimate annual mean skin temperatures(Ts) over the TP. The cold biases are larger in Tasthan in Ts, and are larger over the western TP. By decomposing the Tsbias using the surface energy budget equation, we investigate the contributions to the cold surface temperature bias on the TP from various factors, including the surface albedo-induced bias, surface cloud radiative forcing, clear-sky shortwave radiation, clear-sky downward longwave radiation, surface sensible heat flux, latent heat flux,and heat storage. The results show a suite of physically interlinked processes contributing to the cold surface temperature *** negative surface albedo-induced bias associated with excessive snow cover and the surface heat fluxes are highly anticorrelated, and the cancelling out of these two terms leads to a relatively weak contribution to the cold bias. Smaller surface turbulent fluxes lead to colder lower-tropospheric temperature and lower water vapor content, which in turn cause negative clear-sky downward longwave radiation and cold bias. The results suggest that improvements in the parameterization of the area of snow cover, as well as the boundary layer, and hence surface turbulent fluxes, may help to reduce the cold bias over the TP in the models.

关键词： surface temperature cold bias CMIP5 AMIP Tibetan Plateau surface energy budget

New Solution to surface temperature of Casting Slab Measurement Based on Preceded Reflector and Multi-Wavelength

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Journal of Iron and Steel Research International 2012年第8期19卷 12-16页

作者： LIU Jun1, MA Jiao-cheng2, YANG Feng3, XIAO Hui1, RAO Li-min1 (1. School of Nuclear Engineering and Technology, East China Institute of Technology, Fuzhou 344000, Jiangxi, China 2. School of Mechanical Engineering and Automation, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110004, Liaoning, China 3. School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, East China Institute of Technology, Fuzhou 344000, Jiangxi, China) School of Nuclear Engineering and Technology East China Institute of Technology Fuzhou Jiangxi China School of Mechanical Engineering and Automation Northeastern University Shenyang Liaoning China School of Civil and Environmental Engineering East China Institute of Technology Fuzhou Jiangxi China

The surface temperature of casting slab is an important parameter in the metallurgy field. Because the surface emissivity is uncertain and also unknown, it is difficult to measure the slab surface temperature accurately. A method based on preceded reflector and multi-wavelength was put forward to deal with the difficulty in surface temperature measurement of casting slab. On the premise of preceded reflector and non-preceded reflector, the method establishes the radiation energy equations and works out the emissivity and temperature in the equations. Also, the multilayer modeling of casting slab surface and multiple reflection-absorption process modeling were built by Monte Carlo method. The temperature measuring method had been applied in the continuous casting field. In order to verify the measured result, the thermal imaging method was adopted when the slab surface emissivity was set by repeated tests. Finally, the measured and verified temperature curves keep a same tendency and the error of the values is lower than 5℃. The comparison result shows that the method can measure temperature accurately.

关键词： casting slab emissivity surface temperature preceded reflector multi-wavelength

A new interpolation method for Antarctic surface temperature

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2009年第12期19卷 1843-1849页

作者： Yetang Wang~(a,b),Shugui Hou~(b,c,*) a Monitoring Centre of Ocean Environment of Shandong Province,Yantai 264006,China b State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science,Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 73000,China c MOE,Key Laboratory for Coast and Island Development,School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China Monitoring Centre of Ocean Environment of Shandong Province Yantai 264006 China State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou 73000 China MOE Key Laboratory for Coast and Island Development School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences Nanjing University Nanjing 210093 China

We propose a new methodology for the spatial interpolation of annual mean temperature into a regular grid with a geographic resolution of 0.01°for Antarctica by applying a recent compilation of the Antarctic temperature data.A multiple linear regression model of the dependence of temperature on some geographic parameters(i.e.,latitude,longitude,and elevation) is proposed empirically,and the kriging method is used to determine the spatial distribution of regional and local deviations from the temperature calculated from the multiple linear regression *** modeled value and residual grids are combined to derive a high-resolution map of surface air temperature. The performance of our new methodology is superior to a variety of benchmark methods(e.g.,inverse distance weighting,kriging, and spline methods) via cross-validation *** simulation resembles well with those distinct spatial features of surface temperature,such as the decrease in annual mean surface temperature with increasing latitude and the distance away from the coast line; and it also reveals the complex topographic effects on the spatial distribution of surface temperature.

关键词： surface temperature DEM Antarctica

Cross-scale modeling of surface temperature and tree seedling establishment in mountain landscapes

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Ecological Processes 2013年第1期2卷 313-327页

作者： John R Dingman Lynn C Sweet Ian McCullough Frank W Davis Alan Flint Janet Franklin Lorraine E Flint Earth Research Institute University of California Santa BarbaraSanta BarbaraCA 93106USA U.S.Geological Survey California Water Science CenterSacramentoCA 95819USA Bren School of Environmental Science&Management University of California Santa BarbaraSanta BarbaraCA93106USA School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning Arizona State UniversityTempeAZ85287USA

Introduction:Estimating surface temperature from above-ground field measurements is important for understanding the complex landscape patterns of plant seedling survival and establishment,processes which occur at heights of only several ***,future climate models predict temperature at 2 m above ground,leaving ground-surface microclimate not well ***:Using a network of field temperature sensors and climate models,a ground-surface temperature method was used to estimate microclimate variability of minimum and maximum *** lapse rates were derived from field temperature sensors and distributed across the landscape capturing differences in solar radiation and cold air drainages modeled at a 30-m spatial ***:The surface temperature estimation method used for this analysis successfully estimated minimum surface temperatures on north-facing,south-facing,valley,and ridgeline topographic settings,and when compared to measured temperatures yielded an R2 of 0.88,0.80,0.88,and 0.80,*** surface temperatures generally had slightly more spatial variability than minimum surface temperatures,resulting in R2 values of 0.86,0.77,0.72,and 0.79 for north-facing,south-facing,valley,and ridgeline topographic ***-Poisson regressions predicting recruitment of Quercus kelloggii(black oak)seedlings from temperature variables were significantly improved using these estimates of surface temperature compared to air temperature modeled at 2 ***:Predicting minimum and maximum ground-surface temperatures using a downscaled climate model coupled with temperature lapse rates estimated from field measurements provides a method for modeling temperature effects on plant *** methods could be applied to improve projections of species’range shifts under climate *** of complex topography can provide intricate microclimates that may allow species to redistribute locally as climate

关键词： Black oak Climate change Generalized linear models Microclimate Topography Spatial scale surface temperature