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Improving herdsmen’s well-being through scenario planning:A case study in Xilinhot City,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

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Geography and Sustainability 2020年第3期1卷 181-188页

作者： Jiajia Liu Ganlin Huang Peng Jia Liyuan Chen Center for Human-Environment System Sustainability(CHESS) State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology(ESPRE)Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China School of Natural Resources Faculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Beijing No.142 Middle School(Beijing Hongzhi Middle School) Beijing 100013China Department of Land Surveying and Geo‐Informatics The Hong Kong Polytechnic UniversityHong KongChina International Institute of Spatial Lifecourse Epidemiology(ISLE) Hong KongChina

Grassland ecosystems support well-being with food,shelter,income,and culture of *** the associa-tion between ecosystem services and human well-being has been widely studied,such association is understudied in grassland *** study aims to fill this gap through a case study of Xilinhot City,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,*** examined the association between grassland provisioning services and herds-men’s well-being between 1985 and 2015 through participatory observations,interviews,surveys,and Bayesian belief network *** the uncertainties of weather and sheep prices,we developed four scenarios to examine the future well-being of *** results show that the most important factor for herdsmen’s well-being was income,which is highly sensitive to the market price of sheep and *** the uncertainties of sheep prices and precipitation,scenario analysis revealed a divergence between income and *** herdsmen’s income is most likely to increase with low precipitation and increased sheep prices,their well-being is most likely to improve with abundant precipitation and increased sheep *** on our find-ings,we argue that developing alternative income sources(e.g.,tourism),reducing dependence on government subsidies through commercial insurance,and branding lamb with grassland ecosystem to alleviate the impact of price fluctuations would help improve herdsmen’s well-being in all scenarios.

关键词： Grassland Ecosystem service Well-being Bayesian belief network model scenario planning Inner Mongolia

scenario planning Approach to Disruption Identification for Public Transport System

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Scenario planning Approach to Disruption Identification for ...

A CASE FOR SUSTAINABLE SECURITY SYSTEMS ENGINEERING:INTEGRATING NATIONAL,HUMAN,ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY

第五届（2010）中国管理学年会——管理科学与工程分会场

作者： Wang Wenjuan (School of management,Dalian University of Technology,Ling gong Road,Dalian,Liaoning,116024,China)

Today the scenatios have become extremely *** scenario planning stands out for its ability to capture a whole range of possibilities in rich *** identifying basic uncertainties,a manager can construct a series of scenarios that will lead to better *** author describes how to apply the scenario planning approach to identify the disruptions in the urban public transport *** it is a groundwork to recovery the disruption system.

关键词： disruption identification uncertainty scenario planning public transport system

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2009年第4期18卷 385-402页

作者： Jason K. LEVY L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs Virginia Commonwealth University

In the wake of the September 11,2001 terrorist attacks, there is a growing sense of insecurity felt by many citizens around the world. Sustainable security, with roots in the sustainable development and human security literature, seeks positive transformations for the co-evolving and mutually dependent human-environmental condition by integrating （and subsuming） national, human, environmental, and energy security concems and capitalizing on opportunities provided by human creativity, diplomatic openings, modernization and environmental change. The field of Sustainable Security Systems Engineering is proposed for protecting, restoring, designing, and implementing a set of integrated natural and man-made processes that equitably and responsibly meet the biophysical needs of human communities, while maintaining long-term security, respecting financial constraints, meeting ecological limits, and improving institutional arrangements for transparent and effective governance. scenario planning is shown to help promote sustainable security by identifying the preconditions of instability and helping to proactively address them in an increasingly complex and uncertain world. The six papers published in this featured collection cross policy domains, geographic, political, and sectoral boundaries and were discussed at forums sponsored by the Systems Engineering and Global Policy group. Collectively, they demonstrate the quality, breadth and depth of systems engineering methodologies that are used to promote sustainable security.

关键词： Sustainable security systems engineering national security human security environment and energy scenario planning

Skills for future university librarians

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Chinese Journal of Library and Information Science 2008年第1期1卷 74-85页

作者： Steve O’Connor LI Mei Pao Yue-Kong Library The Hong Kong Polytechnic University

The purpose of this paper is to examine present librarian skills in academic libraries and to propose possible directions of future libraries on skill requirements. This study provides a valuable methodology to understand the current demands of employers for library staff. It also begins to highlight trends in how the skill set and outlook for future employees are currently being viewed. There has been a combination of these understandings with the scenario planning technique to draw threads anticipating skill requirements in three to five years. These approaches create a powerful analysis. An examination of recent library position advertisements and job descriptions in five countries and regions showed broad communication and technology skills required in academic libraries. The key terms of skills were ranked according to the frequencies used in the advertisements and descriptions. Original research based on data from the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom, New Zealand and Hong Kong, SAR, China. The results are harmonized with predicted future trends from scenario planning exercises.

关键词： University libraries Librarians Skills scenario planning Future Staff development Employees

构筑超脱于现实的未来情景情景规划在文化遗产管理领域的运用

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中国文化遗产 2020年第4期 26-32页

作者：陈时羽北京大学考古文博学院联合国教科文组织亚太地区世界遗产培训与研究中心<北京> 北京100871

scenario planning(中译名:情景规划)是未来学的一种研究方法,通过建立由极端条件组成的十字矩阵,塑造出貌似真实的未来世界,从相应产生的故事情景当中发现问题并找出对策,最终实现风险规避。情景规划在军事、商业、社会、文化等领域均... 详细信息

scenario planning(中译名:情景规划)是未来学的一种研究方法,通过建立由极端条件组成的十字矩阵,塑造出貌似真实的未来世界,从相应产生的故事情景当中发现问题并找出对策,最终实现风险规避。情景规划在军事、商业、社会、文化等领域均起到重要的作用,将其运用于文化遗产管理领域,有助于增强研究者对遗产地现状的理解及对未来的判断。情景规划具有不真实性、创造性、细节性、社区性和复杂性等五个特点,包括"建立情景、讲述情景、分析情景"三个部分,由"提出焦点问题、对遗产地进行SWOT和PESTEL分析、寻找驱动因素、建立驱动因素分类矩阵和建立情景规划矩阵、利益相关者分别阐述故事、提出问题与对策"等七个步骤组成。通过七个步骤的环环相扣,建立起逻辑缜密的情景规划矩阵,塑造经得起推敲的未来世界,发现真正对文化遗产地起到威胁的关键问题,在制定普通规划之前提出解决对策,起到查漏补缺和铺垫、完善遗产地保护规划的作用。

关键词： scenario planning 情景规划文化遗产保护规划文化遗产管理