Improving herdsmen’s well-being through scenario planning:A case study in Xilinhot City,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

作     者：Jiajia Liu Ganlin Huang Peng Jia Liyuan Chen 

作者机构：Center for Human-Environment System Sustainability(CHESS)State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology(ESPRE)Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China School of Natural ResourcesFaculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Beijing No.142 Middle School(Beijing Hongzhi Middle School)Beijing 100013China Department of Land Surveying and Geo‐InformaticsThe Hong Kong Polytechnic UniversityHong KongChina International Institute of Spatial Lifecourse Epidemiology(ISLE)Hong KongChina 

出 版 物：《Geography and Sustainability》 (地理学与可持续性（英文）)

年 卷 期：2020年第1卷第3期

页      面：181-188页

学科分类：120301[管理学-农业经济管理] 12[管理学] 090503[农学-草业科学] 1203[管理学-农林经济管理] 0909[农学-草学] 0905[农学-畜牧学] 09[农学] 0903[农学-农业资源与环境] 

基　　金：the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2014CB954302) 

主　　题：Grassland Ecosystem service Well-being Bayesian belief network model Scenario planning Inner Mongolia 

摘      要：Grassland ecosystems support well-being with food,shelter,income,and culture of *** the associa-tion between ecosystem services and human well-being has been widely studied,such association is understudied in grassland *** study aims to fill this gap through a case study of Xilinhot City,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,*** examined the association between grassland provisioning services and herds-men’s well-being between 1985 and 2015 through participatory observations,interviews,surveys,and Bayesian belief network *** the uncertainties of weather and sheep prices,we developed four scenarios to examine the future well-being of *** results show that the most important factor for herdsmen’s well-being was income,which is highly sensitive to the market price of sheep and *** the uncertainties of sheep prices and precipitation,scenario analysis revealed a divergence between income and *** herdsmen’s income is most likely to increase with low precipitation and increased sheep prices,their well-being is most likely to improve with abundant precipitation and increased sheep *** on our find-ings,we argue that developing alternative income sources(e.g.,tourism),reducing dependence on government subsidies through commercial insurance,and branding lamb with grassland ecosystem to alleviate the impact of price fluctuations would help improve herdsmen’s well-being in all scenarios.