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Multi-year Simulations and Experimental Seasonal Predictions for Rainy Seasons in China by Using a Nested regional climate model (RegCM_NCC). Part Ⅰ: Sensitivity Study

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2006年第4期23卷 323-341页

作者：丁一汇史学丽刘一鸣刘艳李清泉钱永甫苗蔓倩翟国庆高昆 Laboratory for climate Studies Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science Department of Atmospheric Sciences Department of Geoscience

A modified version of the NCAR/RegCM2 has been developed at the National climate Center （NCC）, China Meteorological Administration, through a series of sensitivity experiments and multi-year simulations and hindcasts, with a special emphasis on the adequate choice of physical parameterization schemes suitable for the East Asian monsoon climate. This regional climate model is nested with the NCC/IAP （Institute of Atmospheric Physics） T63 coupled GCM to make an experimental seasonal prediction for China and East Asia. The four-year （2001 to 2004） prediction results are encouraging. This paper is the first part of a two-part paper, and it mainly describes the sensitivity study of the physical process paraxneterization represented in the model. The systematic errors produced by the different physical parameterization schemes such as the land surface processes, convective precipitation, cloud-radiation transfer process, boundary layer process and large-scale terrain features have been identified based on multi-year and extreme flooding event simulations. A number of comparative experiments has shown that the mass flux scheme （MFS） and Betts-Miller scheme （BM） for convective precipitation, the LPMI （land surface process model I） and LPMII （land surface process model Ⅱ） for the land surface process, the CCM3 radiation transfer scheme for cloud-radiation transfer processes, the TKE （turbulent kinetic energy） scheme for the boundary layer processes and the topography treatment schemes for the Tibetan Plateau are suitable for simulations and prediction of the East Asia monsoon climate in rainy seasons. Based on the above sensitivity study, a modified version of the RegCM2 （RegCM_NCC） has been set up for climate simulations and seasonal predictions.

关键词： regional climate model sensitivity experiment physical process parameterization mei-yu

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Future Precipitation Extremes in China under climate Change and Their Physical Quantification Based on a regional climate model and CMIP5 model Simulations

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第3期38卷 460-479页

作者： Peihua QIN Zhenghui XIE Jing ZOU Shuang LIU Si CHEN State Key Laboratory of Numerical modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Institute of Oceanographic Instrumentation Qilu University of Technology(Shandong Academy of Sciences)Qingdao 266001China Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Processes Institute of Mountain Hazards and EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesChengdu 610041China

The atmospheric water holding capacity will increase with temperature according to Clausius-Clapeyron scaling and affects precipitation.The rates of change in future precipitation extremes are quantified with changes in surface air temperature.Precipitation extremes in China are determined for the 21st century in six simulations using a regional climate model,RegCM4,and 17 global climate models that participated in CMIP5.First,we assess the performance of the CMIP5 models and RCM runs in their simulation of extreme precipitation for the current period(RF:1982-2001).The CMIP5 models and RCM results can capture the spatial variations of precipitation extremes,as well as those based on observations:OBS and XPP.Precipitation extremes over four subregions in China are predicted to increase in the mid-future(MF:2039-58)and far-future(FF:2079-98)relative to those for the RF period based on both the CMIP5 ensemble mean and RCM ensemble mean.The secular trends in the extremes of the CMIP5 models are predicted to increase from 2008 to 2058,and the RCM results show higher interannual variability relative to that of the CMIP5 models.Then,we quantify the increasing rates of change in precipitation extremes in the MF and FF periods in the subregions of China with the changes in surface air temperature.Finally,based on the water vapor equation,changes in precipitation extremes in China for the MF and FF periods are found to correlate positively with changes in the atmospheric vertical wind multiplied by changes in surface specific humidity(significant at the p<0.1 level).

关键词： precipitation extremes regional climate model CMIP5 models

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Implementation of a Surface Runoff model with Horton and Dunne Mechanisms into the regional climate model RegCM_NCC

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2007年第5期24卷 750-764页

作者：史学丽谢正辉刘一鸣杨宏伟 Laboratory for climate Studies National climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 State Key Laboratory of Numerical modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG)Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029

A surface runoff parameterization scheme that dynamically represents both Horton and Dunne runoff generation mechanisms within a model grid cell together with a consideration of the subgrid-scaie soil heterogeneity, is implemented into the National climate Center regional climate model （RegCM_NCC）. The effects of the modified surface runoff scheme on RegCMANCC performance are tested with an abnormal heavy rainfall process which occurred in summer 1998. Simulated results show that the model with the original surface runoff scheme （noted as CTL） basically captures the spatial pattern of precipitation, circulation and land surface variables, but generally overestimates rainfall compared to observations. The model with the new surface runoff scheme （noted as NRM） reasonably reproduces the distribution pattern of various variables and effectively diminishes the excessive precipitation in the CTL. The processes involved in the improvement of NRM-simulated rainfall may be as follows： with the new surface runoff scheme, simulated surface runoff is larger, soil moisture and evaporation （latent heat flux） are decreased, the available water into the atmosphere is decreased; correspondingly, the atmosphere is drier and rainfall is decreased through various processes. Therefore, the implementation of the new runoff scheme into the RegCMANCC has a significant effect on results at not only the land surface, but also the overlying atmosphere.

关键词： surface runoff regional climate model precipitation water vapor

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Agricultural Land Use Effects on climate over China as Simulated by a regional climate model

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2010年第2期24卷 215-224页

作者：张冬峰高学杰石英 GIORGI Filippo 董文杰 National climate Center The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics College of Global Change and Earth System Beijing Normal University

The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics（ICTP） regional climate model version 3（RegCM3） is used to investigate the climate effects of land use change related to agriculture over China.The model is driven by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast 40-yr Re-Analysis（ERA40） data.Two sets of experiments for 15 yr（1987-2001） are conducted,one with the potential vegetation cover and the other the agricultural land use（AG）.The results show that the AG effects on temperature are weak over northern China while in southern China a significant cooling is found in both winter（DecemberJanuary-February） and summer（June-July-August）.The mean cooling in the sub-regions of South China（SC） in winter and the sub-regions of Southeast（SE） China in summer are found to be the greatest,up to 0.5°and 0.8 ℃ ,respectively.In general,the change of AG leads to a decrease of annual mean temperature by 0.5-1 ℃ in southern China.Slight change of precipitation in western China and a decrease of precipitation in eastern China are simulated in winter,with the maximum reduction reaching-7.5% over SE.A general decrease of precipitation over northern China and an increase over southern China are simulated in summer,in particular over SE where the increase of precipitation can be up to 7.3%.The AG effects on temperature and precipitation show strong interannual variability.Comparison of the climate effects between AG and the present-day land use（LU） is also performed.In southern China,the ratio of temperature（precipitation） changes caused by AG and LU is greater than（closer to） the ratio of the number of grid cells with changed vegetation cover due to AG and LU variations.

关键词： agricultural land use regional climate model regional climate change

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Projected changes in Köppen-Trewartha climate zones under 1.5-4℃global warming targets over mid-high latitudes of Northern Asia using an ensemble of RegCM4 simulations

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Advances in climate Change Research 2024年第2期15卷 185-196页

作者： Jie WU Xue-Jie GAO Xian-Bing TANG Filippo GIORGI School of Geography and Environmental Engineering Gannan Normal UniversityGanzhou 341000China climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Trieste 34100Italy

Mid-high latitude Northern Asia is one of the most vulnerable and sensitive areas to global warming,but relatively less studied previously.We used an ensemble of a regional climate model(RegCM4)projections to assess future changes in surface air temperature,precipitation and Köppen-Trewartha(K-T)climate types in Northern Asia under the 1.5-4℃global warming targets.RegCM4 is driven by five CMIP5 global models over an East Asia domain at a grid spacing of 25 km.Validation of the present day(1986-2005)simulations shows that the ensembles of RegCM4(ensR)and driving GCMs(ensG)reproduce the major characters of the observed temperature,precipitation and K-T climate zones reasonably well.Greater and more realistic spatial detail is found in RegCM4 compared to the driving GCMs.A general warming and overall increases in precipitation are projected over the region,with these changes being more pronounced at higher warming levels.The projected warming by ensR shows different spatial patterns,and is in general lower,compared to ensG in most months of the year,while the percentage increases of precipitation are maximum during the cold months.The future changes in K-T climate zones are characterized by a substantial expansion of Dc(temperature oceanic)and retreat of Ec(sub-arctic continental)over the region,reaching∼20%under the 4℃warming level.The most notable change in climate types in ensR is found over Japan(∼60%),followed by Southern Siberia,Mongolia,and the Korean Peninsula(∼40%).The largest change in the K-T climate types is found when increasing from 2 to 3℃.The results will help to better assess the impacts of climate change and in implementation of appropriate adaptation measures over the region.

关键词： Mid-high latitudes of Northern Asia Köppen climate zones Global warming targets regional climate model

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A regional climate model Simulation of Summer Monsoon over East Asia: A Case Study of 1991 Flood in Yangtzee-Huai River Valley

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 1998年第4期15卷 59-79页

作者：魏和林王维强 START regional Center for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing Atmospheric Sciences Research Center State University of New York Albany USA

The evolution of summer monsoon over East Asia is the result of multi-scale interactions, including the large-scale subtropical high, upper level jet and regional-scale Meiyu front, vortex, and thermal heating. regional climate models should be a better way to simulate the summer monsoon evolution, because not only they can reflect the large-scale forcing through boundary condition, theirs high resolution can also catch regional-scale forcing in detail. To evaluate the ability of SUNYA-ReCM to simulate the evolution of the summer monsoon over East Asia especially in the extreme climate, a simulation of the East Asian flood that occurred during 1991 summer was performed. This simulation was driven by large-scale atmospheric background derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Tropic Ocean Global Atmospheric (TOGA) analysis. The model is capable of reproducing the major features of the monthly mean monsoon circulation, anomalous rainfall in the Yangtze-Huai River Valley and the two northward jumps of rainfall belt as well as the other large-scale components of the monsoon. The changes of the large-scale circulation during the evolution of summer monsoon are also well simulated, which include: (1) the wind direction changes from southeasterly to southwesterly in the South China Sea. (2) The northward shift of the upper westerly over East China and the Tibetan Plateau. (3) The northward shift of the western Pacific subtropic high at 500 hPa. The model also has a good simulation on the evolution of the regional-scale components of the monsoon, including Meiyu front and southwest (SW) vortex in Sichuan Basin.

关键词： regional climate model Summer monsoon 1991 flood

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NUMERICAL SIMULATION EXPERIMENTS BY NESTING HYDROLOGY model DHSVM WITH regional climate model RegCM2/CHINA

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2002年第4期16卷 509-518页

作者：王守荣黄荣辉丁一汇 L.R.LEUNG M.S.WIGMOSTA L.W.VAIL National climate Center Beijing 100081China Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100080China Pacific Northwest National Laboratory RichlandWashington 99352USA

Based on improvement of a distributed hydrology-soil-vegetation model (DHSVM for short) and its application to North China,a nested regional climatic-hydrologic model system is developed by connecting DHSVM with RegCM2/China.The simulated climate scenarios,including control and 2×CO_2 outputs,are downscaled to 8 stations in Luanhe River and Sanggan River Basins to drive the hydrology model.According to simulation results,under double CO_2 scenarios,annual mean temperature and evapotranspiration will increase 2.8C and 29 mm,respectively; precipitation also increase but with different value for each basin,6 mm for Luanhe River Basin while 46 mm for Sanggan River Basin;runoff change for the two basins is different too,27 mm decrease for Luanhe River Basin while 26 mm increase for Sanggan River Basin.As a result,the runoff in future for Luanhe River Basin and Sanggan River Basin will be 74 mm and 71 mm, respectively,which is approximately a quarter of annual mean runoff(284 mm)of the whole country.Total streamflow for the two basins will decrease about 2.5×10~8m^3.All these indicate that the warm and dry trend will continue in the two river basins under double CO_2 scenarios.The nested model system,with both climatic and hydrologic prediction ability,could also be applied to other basins in China by parameter adjustment.

关键词： regional climate model hydrology model nested simulation experiment prediction analysis

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AN IMPROVED LAND-SURFACE PROCESS model AND ITS SIMULATION EXPERIMENT—PART II:COUPLING SIMULATION EXPERIMENT OF LAND-SURFACE PROCESS model WITH regional climate model

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2000年第1期14卷 30-45页

作者：丁一汇张晶赵宗慈 National climate Center Beijing 100081

The Land-surface Process model(LPM-ZD)has been successfully coupled with the regional climate model RegCM2 of NCAR.Then thus-obtained coupled model(CRegCM)has been applied to simulate the climate characteristics of heavy rain in middle and East China for three months from May to July 1991.and compared with model output of NCAR-RegCM2 using BATS as land- surface process scheme,abbreviated as NRegCM.The results show that CRegCM has good ability and performance.CRegCM successfully simulates the extreme precipitation event and the simulations of CRegCM for surface temperature and some physical variables related to land surface process are more reasonable than those of NRegCM.

关键词： land-surface process model regional climate model coupled model simulation

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climate CHANGE DUE TO GREENHOUSE EFFECTS IN CHINA AS SIMULATED BY A regional climate model-PART Ⅰ: EVALUATION OF THE model SIMULATIONS

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2003年第4期17卷 406-416页

作者：高学杰赵宗慈丁一汇黄荣辉 Filippo Giorgi National climate Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences The Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics

Impacts of greenhouse effects (2×CO_2) on climate change over China as simulated by a regional climate model have been investigated.The model was based on RegCM2 and is nested in one-way mode within a global coupled atmosphere-ocean model (CSIRO R_(21)L_9 AOGCM).Two multi-year simulations,the control run with normal CO_2 concentration and the sensitivity run with doubled CO_2 concentration are conducted. As Part I of the publications,results of control run of the CSIRO,i.***.its simulation of present climate in China,are analyzed briefly.It shows that the model can basically reproduce the surface air temperature and precipitation pattern over China.Therefore,its outputs can be used to drive the regional model. Analysis of control run of RegCM shows that with a high resolution,the model improves the simulations of surface air temperature and precipitation in China as compared to the CSIRO model, especially for the precipitation.The spatial correlation coefficient between simulated and observed annual temperature increased from 0.83 in the CSIRO to 0.92 in the RegCM and for annual precipitation from 0.48 in the CSIRO to 0.65 in the RegCM.A similar improvement in the RegCM compared to the CSIRO was found in all simulated months.The main improvement for surface temperature is that RegCM can simulate the fine scale structure of temperature caused by topography.RegCM greatly improved the spatial distribution of precipitation by eliminating the virtual precipitation center in central China,which was simulated by many other GCMs.The precipitation simulated by RegCM in North and Northwest China is smaller than that by CSIRO, which makes it closer to the observation.

关键词： climate simulations regional climate model control run

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SIMULATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SUMMER OF 1998 OVER CHINA WITH regional climate model

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2002年第3期16卷 348-362页

作者：刘一鸣丁一汇 National climate Center Beijing 100081

The heavy rainfall in the summer of 1998 over China has been simulated with the NCC regional climate model(RegCM_NCC).It was successful for RegCM_NCC to reproduce the location and seasonal shift of the seasonal rain belt in the summer of 1998 over China.The rainy season in the summer of 1998 over China can be divided into 7 episodes,including the pre-summer rainy season in South China.the Meiyu onset over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin,short appearance of North China rain season and the retreat of seasonal rain belt,the second Meiyu season over the Yangtze River Valley,the rainy period over the Yellow and Huaihe River Valley and the seasonal retreat of rain belt over North China.The shortcoming of the RegCM_NCC is over-estimation of precipitation amounts.The regions with large latent heat flux,upper soil moisture and total runoff are located in the rainy area and move with the simulated rain belt during the different episodes.On the contrary,the regions with small sensible heat flux are located in the simulated rainy area and move with the simulated rain belt during the different episodes.

关键词： heavy rainfall regional climate model Meiyu

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